---
title: "Dolphin Daily | Connectivity down, memory down, new cloud down — has the market ditched AI for the Biden trade?"
type: "Topics"
locale: "en"
url: "https://longbridge.com/en/dolphin/post/44722345.md"
description: "An acquisition target fell 19%. Apple beat estimates yet sold off. The AI trade is now spooked even by good news."
datetime: "2026-11-03T00:52:06.000Z"
locales:
  - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/dolphin/post/44722345.md)
  - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/dolphin/post/44722345.md)
  - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/dolphin/post/44722345.md)
author: "[Dolphin Research](https://longbridge.com/en/dolphin.md)"
generator: "portal-rs"
---

# Dolphin Daily | Connectivity down, memory down, new cloud down — has the market ditched AI for the Biden trade?

Good morning. It is Nov 3, 2026 (Beijing time). Dolphin Research brings you a one-glance read on global markets.

**What’s trading**: Marvell announced an all-stock acquisition of Lumentum valued at $115.0bn, and both sold off. LITE fell 18.6% while Marvell dropped 12.7%, as Oracle, Meta, and Google all tapped the bond market, and Anthropic updated its S-1 but still lacks Oct ARR.

Apple and Palantir both beat estimates, yet each fell about 3% after hours. Kioxia’s outlook missed, sending US memory names to fresh lows.

**Macro**: ISM Manufacturing came in at 55.5, above estimates, and Iran’s green light for talks sent oil down over 7%. The Nasdaq fell 1.07%, the SOX dropped 3.35% to break its 200-DMA, and hedge funds’ AI exposure fell below market-cap weight for the first time since 2023.

**Mover board**: Cybersecurity and cloud usage names slumped (Okta -11.2%, Datadog -8.1%), while AMD fell 7.5% ahead of earnings. Amazon (+2.2%) and Rivian (+8.5%) bucked the trend, as flows rotated into healthcare and staples.

**Near-term watch**:

**Today**: US midterms voting, with 10 states also voting on data-center restrictions. AMD, Arista, and Super Micro report after the close (Wed morning Beijing time).

At 23:00 tonight. US Sep JOLTS job openings.

**Wed**: Treasury quarterly refunding; ARM and Qualcomm report after the close. Fri: Oct nonfarm payrolls.

$Marvell Tech(MRVL.US) , $Lumentum(LITE.US) , $Apple(AAPL.US) , $Palantir Tech(PLTR.US) , $Oracle(ORCL.US) , $AMD(AMD.US) , $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) , $Amazon(AMZN.US) , $Meta Platforms(META.US) , $Alphabet(GOOGL.US) , $Micron Tech(MU.US) , $Sandisk(SNDK.US) , $Coreweave(CRWV.US) , $Nebius(NBIS.US) 

Moves are vs. the prior close as of 11/2, with after-hours as of around 07:53 Beijing time. Reference is US equities and global assets.

**1) The most hated deal ever? Lumentum fell even more**

**Lumentum -18.6% / Marvell -12.7% / Ciena -11.3% / AOI -9.5% / Coherent -4.9%**

On 11/2, Marvell announced an all-stock purchase of Lumentum at an exchange ratio of 1:4.5 shares, with no cash component. The implied EV is $115.0bn, a ~23.9% premium to 10/28 close, and pro forma ownership will be 67%/33%.

The company guided to over $1bn in annualized cost synergies and EPS accretion in year one post-close, expanding its TAM to $550bn. It expects closing in H1 2028, and reaffirmed Q3 revenue at the midpoint.

Lumentum also reported FQ1 FY27 revenue of $12.6bn, +136% YoY, guided FQ2 to $15.75–16.25bn (vs. $14.8bn cons.), and disclosed $5bn in order commitments. The prints landed the same day.

**A premium takeout that sold off harder?** It is rare for the target to fall more than the buyer, and some desks called it the most value-destructive deal they have seen. Some optical component capacity is sold out through early 2029, yet management chose to sell here.

Commentary also flagged that an all-stock deal with no cash and no price protection is negligent to Lumentum holders. Others read LITE management’s decision as a lack of confidence in the AI cycle.

Dolphin Research will follow up with pricing analysis on the transaction. Stay tuned.

**2) AI financing wave meets bad-news mode: Oracle issues bonds; Anthropic’s S-1 still lacks Oct ARR**

**Oracle -8.8% / CoreWeave -8.6% / IREN -8.1% / Nebius -8.3% / Meta -1.3% / Google -0.3%**

Oracle launched a 6-tranche $10bn IG bond on Mon, with WSJ noting plans to raise $20bn total (roughly half debt, half equity). That aligns with Investor Day commentary that another $20bn raise would be the cap.

The move was not a surprise, yet shares fell 8.8%, giving back the 11% post-Analyst Day rally. On the same day, Meta aimed to sell at least $20bn in USD and EUR bonds (first EUR tranche), while Google sold a €6bn 7-tranche deal whose EUR spreads have widened ~60bp since May.

Per WSJ, new-cloud bond issuance has largely stalled: CoreWeave’s 9.75% coupon bond now yields over 15%, and Nebius canceled its HY issue. Risk appetite has faded.

**New-cloud is a high-leverage, heavy-asset model—once capex is in, costs are locked, with revenue elasticity tied to cloud pricing and cost elasticity to funding costs.** When borrowing rates rise and tenors misalign with customer orders, project revenue compresses, pressuring valuations. ([*Dolphin Research*](https://longbridge.cn/zh-CN/dolphin/post/44706913))

Anthropic updated its S-1: Q3 revenue of $16.96bn, +1,127% YoY and +46.7% QoQ. Net loss was $23.29bn, including $21.9bn in non-cash charges, with OP loss of $570mn.

Compute purchase and lease commitments total about $895.4bn. That is sizable against current scale.

The key Oct ARR is still missing: the pass line for many is ~$74–75bn, while bulls want to see $78bn+ to argue organic acceleration. The earliest disclosure could come during next week’s roadshow.

**3) Earnings: Apple and Palantir beat, but still sold after hours**

**Palantir -3.1% (AH -3.2%) / Apple -1.8% (AH -2.8%)**

Apple reported FQ4 revenue of $114.48bn, +12% YoY, with iPhone at $57.58bn (+17%) and Mac at $10.79bn (+24%), both beating. GPM was 47.9% (incl. ~100bps tariff refund) and EPS was $2.10.

The issue was Services and guide: Services revenue was $31.57bn, +9.8% YoY, showing a slowdown. FQ1 revenue guide is +7–10%, above the 6.1% cons. at the low end, but buy-side wanted 10%+.

Shares rose ~0.4% initially after hours, then fell over 4% during the call. Volatility picked up.

Palantir posted Q3 revenue of $2.313bn, +96% YoY (vs. $2.18bn cons.), with US Commercial at $984mn (+148%) surpassing US Gov’t at $953mn for the first time. FY revenue guide was raised to $8.53–8.534bn (vs. ~$8.2bn cons.).

Issues: reported revenue and profit beat the sell side but missed buy-side bars. RPO and TCV leading indicators fell QoQ, US Commercial TCV was only +11%, and new 8-figure deals are shorter in duration; shares price in ~35x 2027 PS and ~84x PE.

**Dolphin Research views**:

**a) Palantir is a guide beat but forward miss**—inertia upgrades from existing clients support the quarter, while penetration beyond the core circle struggles and Microsoft/OpenAI push alternatives. At this valuation, blemishes get magnified, limiting near-term positive feedback. ([*First Take*](https://longbridge.cn/zh-CN/dolphin/post/44721280)) ([*Trans*](https://longbridge.cn/zh-CN/dolphin/post/44721150))

**b) Apple’s main issue is guidance**: GPM was below buy-side hopes, implying storage price inflation and AI feature costs are biting. Services growth slowed from just under 10% toward 8–9%, raising concerns that Google search TAC share growth is structurally decelerating. [*(First Take)*](https://longbridge.cn/zh-CN/dolphin/post/44721863?channel=OWNN00030)

**4) Memory: Kioxia’s guide hits new lows, Korea outperforms anyway**

**Seagate -7.9% / Western Digital -7.5% / SanDisk -6.6% / Micron -5.8% / SK Hynix +3.8% (Seoul)**

Kioxia guided Oct–Dec adj. OP to ~¥2.00tn, ~15% below the ~¥2.35tn market view and only +1% QoQ, sending shares down 15.8%. NAND ASP growth slowed from ~70% QoQ to ~20%.

The company attributed part of the slowdown to shipment timing shifts (some orders pulled into the Sep quarter, some pushed to the Mar quarter). Per sell side, Kioxia said 2027 capacity is largely sold out and multi-year deals lock in over 50% of shipments.

US memory names hit fresh lows in response, with SanDisk breaking key support. Sentiment remains fragile.

**1) ISM beat and oil plunge dial back hike odds (11/2)**

**ISM Manufacturing**: Oct at 55.5, above 54.7 cons., marking a 10th straight month of expansion. The production index hit its best since late 2021, while prices fell to 75.2 from 77.9.

**Oil**: Iran’s president said the Supreme Leader authorized dialogue, and Trump said he is not considering strikes post-midterms. WTI fell 7.4% to $96.5 and Brent fell 7.6% to $104.8; after hours, Iranian media said there was ‘no progress’ in talks.

**Fed path**: Dec hike odds fell from ~85% last week to ~71–77%. The 10Y fell to ~4.91%, DXY hit a 1-month low, and gold rose 1.5%.

**Midterms**: Voting is today, with prediction markets giving Democrats ~77% odds for the Senate and ~61% odds for Abbott in TX governorship. In 36 governor races, 21 have major candidates proposing a pause on data-center builds.

**Positioning**: Per foreign dealer desks, hedge fund AI exposure fell below market-cap weight for the first time since early 2023. Systematic L/S was -2.17% last week, the worst since Dec 2023.

**Rebound setup**: Desks see little evidence of capex slowdown in mega-cap prints; with light positioning and low participation, a ‘painful year-end rally’ is brewing, but they want catalysts resolved before adding. Morgan Stanley’s Wilson thinks AI capex growth is near a peak.

**2) Assets with bigger moves (11/2)**

**Nasdaq -1.07%, S&P -0.51%, Dow +0.41%**: Nasdaq 100 posted the worst three-day slide since the relief day. Flows rotated from tech and energy into consumer, retail, and healthcare.

**SOX -3.35%**: Up ~1% at the open before a late-day air pocket, breaking the 200-DMA after 355 straight sessions above it. That is a notable technical break.

**VIX +8.9% to ~21.2**: Back above 20. Stress ticked up.

**Crude -7.4% to -7.6%, gold +1.5%**: US–Iran diplomacy drove moves. Bitcoin fell 1.9% to ~$76.7k, still weighed by the Binance hack.

**3) Asia open and today’s setup (11/3)**

**Asia open**: Japan shut for Culture Day. KOSPI opened down 2.5%, with SK Hynix -4.2% and Samsung -3.7%.

**Korea memory**: US memory fell another 6–8% and Kioxia missed, leading SK Hynix and Samsung to give back yesterday’s gains at the open. Long-term agreements and sold-out HBM remain the bull safety net.

**Optical modules and PCB**: The Marvell–Lumentum deal was sold hard, and US optical fell 5–19%, pressuring A-share optical module names like InnoLight and Eoptolink. Sentiment is weak.

**AMD** | $762.0bn | **-7.5%** (AH **+1.4%**)

Fell with CPU peers (-6.9%) on Mon. Intel’s issues center on PC CPUs, which is a negative read-through for AMD.

**NVIDIA NVDA** | $4.88tn | **-1.3%**

Among MAG mega caps, aside from Apple, it is one of the two with strong FCF and shipping into a major product upcycle. That offered relative resilience.

**TSMC TSM** | $2.07tn | **-1.8%** / **Broadcom AVGO** | $1.54tn | **-1.2%**

Both slipped with semis but outperformed the group. Selling was orderly.

**Intel INTC -8.8% / Cerebras CBRS -11.7%**

Intel extended last week’s post-PC guide collapse declines. Cerebras broke below $100.

**Microsoft MSFT** | $3.77tn | **-2.8%**

Fell with AI software. Per street data, big-4 cloud capex rose 108% YoY in Q3, with combined FCF around -$25bn, and only Microsoft positive; big-3 cloud revenue growth re-accelerated from 48% in Q2 to 54%.

**Amazon AMZN** | $2.66tn | **+2.2%**

Retail buoyed the stock, which is back to pre-earnings levels. AWS’s CEO said an accelerator is installed every 14 seconds and demand still exceeds supply.

**Okta -11.2% / Fortinet -7.3% / SentinelOne -7.9% / Zscaler -5.9% / Cloudflare -5.5% / CrowdStrike -3.4%**

Cyber sold off all day: Check Point (-7%) followed Fortinet with a below-consensus Q4 revenue guide, and the CEO said the recovery is taking longer than expected. Okta fell even as it joins the S&P 500 on Wed.

**Datadog -8.1% / MongoDB -6.4% / Snowflake -5.0%**

Cloud usage names extended Fri’s slide, with Datadog reporting pre-market Wed. CrowdStrike and Dynatrace announced a SIEM/observability tie-up, seen as fresh competition for Datadog.

**Dell DELL -7.4% / Super Micro SMCI -7.6% / HPE -7.1%**

Server OEMs fell with memory and the AI complex. Super Micro reports after the bell tonight.

**Xiaomi 1810.HK** | $92.2bn | **+6.1%** (11/2 close)

Oct auto deliveries exceeded 50k, alongside a +2.25% day for the HSTECH Index. Sentiment lifted the stock.

**Kweichow Moutai 600519.SH** | **+3.4%** (11/2 close)

Q3 suggests a bottoming out. With Feitian price hikes underpinning and non-standard Moutai discounting lapping tough comps, growth should gradually re-accelerate as inventory clears and channel mix tailwinds emerge.

**Rivian RIVN +8.5% / XPeng XPEV +5.9% / Horizon Robotics 9660.HK +8.1% (11/2 close)**

Rivian was upgraded to Buy at UBS (R2 scale-up and GP inflection). XPeng delivered a record 50,237 units in Oct (+22% MoM, +20% YoY), with overseas up 166% to 13,326 units; Horizon Robotics \[to be updated\].

**Tesla TSLA** | $1.60tn | **+1.0%** / **SpaceX SPCX** | $1.85tn | **+1.2%**

Bucked the tape with small gains, with no new company-level headlines. Musk said Grok Bot’s service costs are ‘hard to sustain’ relative to revenue, and inference fiber usage is below half of training clusters.

**Tencent 0700.HK** | $450.0bn | **+2.2% / Alibaba BABA** | $252.5bn | **+3.5%**

Qianwen’s integration into Apple Intelligence China supported momentum. HSTECH benefited as capital rotated out of AI investments.

**Date**

**Event**

**Watchpoints**

Tue 11/3

US midterms; RBA decision; JOLTS; AMD, Arista, Astera Labs, Super Micro AH

Data-center restriction ballots; see earnings previews below

Wed 11/4

Treasury quarterly refunding; Okta into S&P 500; Datadog, GlobalFoundries pre; ARM, Qualcomm, Coherent, AppLovin AH

Any cut to long-end issuance; see earnings previews below

Thu 11/5

BoE decision; IREN, Cloudflare, Microchip AH

Expected +25bps to 4%

Fri 11/6

US Oct NFP; Vistra, TeraWulf pre

Cons. +65k

From next Mon

Anthropic IPO roadshow

May disclose Oct ARR

**AMD | AH on 11/3**

**Watchpoints**: -7.5% on Mon as Intel flagged a PC cliff weighing on client CPUs. Desks see this as the most pivotal print post-Intel, with bulls focused on MI450 Helios scaling in 2027 and server CPU share gains.

**Dolphin watch**: DC GPU revenue, MI450 shipment cadence, and client CPU guide.

**Arista ANET | AH on 11/3**

**Watchpoints**: -2.8% on Mon; desks treat it as the AI networking window. The Marvell–Lumentum tie-up introduces a new variable in optical interconnect pricing power.

**ARM | AH on 11/4**

**Watchpoints**: -4.5% on Mon; smartphone SoC shipments fell 21% YoY in Q3. Watch AGI CPU backlog and foundry capacity constraints.

**Dolphin watch**: Royalty growth, DC mix, and AGI CPU progress.

**Recent Daily Recaps**

2026-11-02: [Daily Recap | Google stumbles, Intel follows: any new potholes this week?](https://longbridge.cn/zh-CN/dolphin/post/44694445)

2026-10-30: [Daily Recap | Google plunges, Amazon crouches, Intel cracks: AI purge day?](https://longbridge.cn/zh-CN/dolphin/post/44647390)

\<End here>

Risk disclosure and disclaimer: [Dolphin Research disclaimer and general disclosure](https://support.longbridge.global/topics/misc/dolphin-disclaimer)

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## Comments (3)

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> **Disclaimer: This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice.**