---
title: "Dolphin Daily | AI rallies; only 'scandal-hit Jensen Huang' is shunned"
type: "Topics"
locale: "en"
url: "https://longbridge.com/en/dolphin/post/44933303.md"
description: "With a Congressional hearing and earnings just a day apart, how long can NVDA’s valuation discount last?"
datetime: "2026-11-10T00:59:59.000Z"
locales:
  - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/dolphin/post/44933303.md)
  - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/dolphin/post/44933303.md)
  - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/dolphin/post/44933303.md)
author: "[Dolphin Research](https://longbridge.com/en/dolphin.md)"
generator: "portal-rs"
---

# Dolphin Daily | AI rallies; only 'scandal-hit Jensen Huang' is shunned

It is 2026-11-10 Beijing time. Dolphin Research brings you a one-glance global market wrap.

**Trading Focus**: AI hardware staged a violent rebound on Mon, with SOX +6.9%. AMD surged 13.3% after an upgrade by Oppenheimer, while NVIDIA fell 4.3% as Jensen Huang’s admission and a board-ordered independent probe weighed on governance and added a discount.

The fallout is spilling into China export scrutiny. Three House committees asked Jensen Huang to appear on 11/18, and the New York Times reported some Chinese buyers approved for H200 were shell entities. Some houses argue the post-election selloff was overdone, with capex merely shifting partly from 2028 to 2029.

**Macro Sentiment**: US Oct CPI prints at 21:30 Beijing time, with core MoM consensus at 0.2%. CME FedWatch shows Dec hike odds above 80%, while reported progress in US–Iran nuclear talks drove Brent -5.9% on Mon.

**Key Movers**: Equipment, memory and optical modules led the rally. Coherent +16.8%, Applied Materials +11.4%, Lam Research +10.4%, and Constellation Energy beat big on earnings (+10.5%). Aside from NVIDIA, mega caps were broadly higher, while Korea memory played catch-up in Asia with KOSPI +4.6% at open and SK Hynix +6.9% at open.

**Near-term Watch**:

Today: TSMC reports Oct rev. US Oct CPI at 21:30. CoreWeave and Hesai report after hours in the US, and Anthropic is said to kick off its roadshow as early as today, aiming to list on Nasdaq on 11/19 or 11/20.

Thu: Cisco, Applied Materials, Nebius, SMIC and Cerebras report. Fri: PPI.

Next week: 11/17 NVIDIA earnings. 11/18 Jensen Huang to brief the three House committees.

$NVIDIA(NVDA.US) , $AMD(AMD.US) , $Broadcom(AVGO.US) , $Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM.US) , $Micron Tech(MU.US) , $Sandisk(SNDK.US) , $Lam Research(LRCX.US) , $Applied Materials(AMAT.US) , $Coreweave(CRWV.US) , $Coherent Corp.(COHR.US) , $Lumentum(LITE.US) , $Constellation Energy(CEG.US) , $SK Hynix(SKHY.US) , $Cambricon(688256.SH) , $SoftBank Group Corp.(9984.JP) , $S&P 500(.SPX.US) , $NASDAQ-100(.NDX.US) , $iShares Semiconductor ETF(SOXX.US) , TAIEX , Nikkei 225 , KOSPI

**1\. NVIDIA lagged SOX by 11pts: Jensen Huang’s personal scandal now entangles China export issues**

**MediaTek +9.9% (Mon TAIEX) / Cambricon +6.0% (Mon A-share) / NVIDIA -4.3%**

NVIDIA dropped as much as ~8% intraday Mon and closed -4.3%, while SOX gained 6.9%. It was the only decliner among SOX constituents, underperforming by ~11pts.

Trump said Jensen Huang should remain CEO and claimed the FBI is investigating the matter. Huang acknowledged an affair but said he was ‘completely unaware the other party was a spy.’

Semafor argued the episode exposed a weak board and opaque succession at NVIDIA, with no publicly identified successor to the CEO. Republican chairs of the House China, Foreign Affairs and Intelligence committees requested Huang to testify on 11/18, just one day after the 11/17 earnings.

The New York Times also reported a US Commerce probe into Singapore’s Megaspeed for allegedly smuggling NVIDIA chips to China was handed to the DOJ after NVIDIA became involved. Multiple takes: Morgan Stanley said if GW build in 2028 falls short, NVIDIA could actually gain share given a broader customer base than AMD and ASICs, able to ‘go where power is.’

Bottlenecks are shifting from chips to land, power and data halls, which is favorable for NVIDIA.

**2\. SOX +6.9% snapback: MS says post-election selloff created opportunity; capex largely delayed, not derailed**

**Applied Materials +11.4% / Lam +10.4% / Seagate +9.8% / Broadcom +8.8% / Micron +6.3% / ASML +6.2% / SanDisk +6.2%**

AI hardware led a broad-based rebound on Mon, with SOX +6.9% and two-day gain of 11%. The S&P posted its biggest one-day rise in seven months, though NVIDIA lagged.

Over 20 Morgan Stanley teams co-authored a note saying the market overreacted to the election outcome. They see total AI capex unchanged, with some DC builds shifting from 2028 to 2029, implying delay not derailment.

Quant view: about 5GW (IT) of unstarted projects in TX and OH slip by a year, equal to ~20% of US pipeline and ~10% global. New US DC GW: 2028 -4% YoY, 2029 +38%.

Hyperscaler capex forecasts for the next two years hold at ~$1.6tn and ~$1.8tn. A stretched cycle could smooth supply–demand rebalancing, improve credit outlook, and lift compute rents.

The trade-off is a potential ‘air pocket’ for tech supply chains in 2028, via weaker pricing power or inventory build, but MS thinks much is in the tape. BofA is also bottom-fishing: SOX is down 38% vs the Jun peak, with a 13.7x forward P/E, ~12% above the ~12x historical trough.

Positioning is washed out: prime broker data show US tech net allocation at 14.4%, near the 1st, 1st and 3rd percentile over 1-, 3- and 5-year lookbacks. Most of the 2025 semi overweight has been unwound.

Some ‘Singles Day shopping lists’ favor TSMC, AMD and Broadcom first (low P/E, high visibility), but increasingly lean offensive with Micron and SanDisk. The order runs compute, memory, equipment (Lam, MKS, AEI), analog, then networking.

**3\. Texas to pause new permits but allow existing builds? CoreWeave writes the governor-elect ahead of earnings**

**Nebius +9.2% / CoreWeave +5.6% (AH +2.1%) / Iris Energy IREN -1.1%**

On 11/7 CoreWeave wrote to Texas governor-elect Hinojosa, saying existing permitted DC projects can be completed. The letter called this a ‘clear starting point’ for future standards.

As of 6/30, CoreWeave operated 51 DCs with active power above 1.5GW, and by 8/11 had signed ~4.2GW. It has sites across six TX locations including Austin and Plano.

The company pledged to fund substation and transmission upgrades for new interconnections without passing costs to residents, and to deploy closed-loop liquid cooling for all new capacity. Daily water use would be comparable to or lower than an office of similar size.

Morgan Stanley said most CoreWeave sites in Denton (~260MW) and Austin (~20MW) are already running, so election risk is relatively modest. Watch phased build-out at the Helios site in West TX.

On financing: CoreWeave is the tenant behind roughly 17% of the corporate bond market’s DC bonds. MS expects tighter scrutiny for new DC financing, with lower-rated tenants needing extra support to secure fresh capacity.

Nebius has >1GW each in MO and PA, not in TX or OH, but rule-tightening in PA adds uncertainty. MS also noted that even new clouds paying high unsecured rates may still struggle to source sufficient compute to fill halls.

CoreWeave reports Q3 after the US close on Tue; see preview at the end.

**4\. Anthropic pushes ahead with IPO despite AI selloff: listing next week, valuation now negotiated below $2tn**

The Wall Street Journal says Anthropic is meeting key investors this week, aiming to start trading Thu or Fri next week (11/19 or 11/20) under ticker ‘ANT’. IFR says the roadshow could begin as early as Tue.

The target valuation range should be disclosed in early-week filings. About a week ago, investors expected ~$1.5tn, but after last Thu’s AI selloff, some large investors pushed lower, making it almost certainly well below the ~$2tn floated months ago.

Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley are the underwriters. For comps, OpenAI’s latest round raised less than half its target with valuation below its $1.25tn goal, while SpaceX’s Jun IPO valuation was ~ $1.77tn with ~$75bn raised.

Ahead of the roadshow, Anthropic rolled out new models: Fable 5.2 and Mythos 5.2 deliver up to ~30% more output with API pricing cut by 20%. Anthropic said 1,000 Fable 5.2 agents formalized Fermat’s Last Theorem in 30 hours and solved two open problems in black hole physics.

**5\. Dolphin Hotspot | Coherent: Share price halved — was the ‘all-rounder’ in optical modules unfairly hit?**

**Coherent +16.8% / Lumentum +10.7%**

**Dolphin view:** Tight InP substrates likely won’t normalize before 2028, making near-term GPM uplift highly visible. But 1.6T migrating to CW plus silicon photonics and uncertainty beyond 3.2T raise questions about sustaining high margins for chips and modules.

Coherent is one of two major external light source suppliers for CPO (~40% share) and stands to benefit from CPO adoption — a key differentiator vs pure-play module vendors. Whether it can reach a 45%+ GPM target depends on converting vertical integration into a cost edge in optical comms; watch the 6-inch platform ramp. ([*Dolphin original*](https://longbridge.cn/zh-CN/dolphin/post/44915404)) ([*Dolphin original*](https://longbridge.cn/zh-CN/dolphin/post/44915603))

**1\. CPI tonight: core seen easing to 0.2% MoM (11/10)**

**Expectations**: US Oct CPI is due 21:30 Beijing time. Bloomberg consensus for core MoM is 0.2%, the smallest in three months, with Deutsche Bank at headline 0.28% and core 0.21%, and sell-side desks relaying ~0.16% core from some models.

**Methodology**: No YoY will be published this time due to the 2025 Gov. shutdown leaving Oct data missing.

**Scenarios**: A core print above 0.3% could fully price a Dec hike and pressure high-multiple tech. If it lands at 0.2%, post-NFP hawkish bets may ease.

**Fed path**: CME FedWatch shows >80% odds of a 25bp hike in Dec. BofA estimates Oct headline CPI YoY at 3.8% and core at 2.7%, adding ‘inflation won’t make the Fed abandon a Dec hike.’

**China’s Oct trade data is due today**, with sell-side expecting exports +36.0% YoY and imports +33.2%.

**2\. Big movers (11/9)**

**SOX +6.85%, NDX 100 +3.40%, S&P +2.35%, DJIA +2.15%**: The S&P closed at 7,550, its largest one-day gain in seven months.

**VIX -22.3% to 19.92**: Last week’s fear has cooled materially.

**Brent -5.85% to $92.57, WTI -4.38% to $86.85**: Saudi media said the US agreed Iran would cap enrichment at 3.67%, sending Brent down nearly 8% intraday.

**No escalation in Iran conflict**: Trump said the Iran war won’t escalate, and Israeli media said Iran dropped demands to control the Strait of Hormuz and charge transiting vessels.

**Spot silver +2.9%, copper +2.7%, spot gold +1.6%**: DXY fell 0.6% to 101.68, backing off a one-week high.

**UST 10Y +1.7bp to 4.87%, 2Y +4.8bp to 4.56%**: Yields rose for a second day, with hike odds anchoring the front end.

**3\. Asia open and today’s setup (11/10)**

**Asia open (11/10)**: Nikkei 225 opened +1.0% and later extended to ~+2.4%. KOSPI opened +4.6%, SK Hynix +6.9% at open and Samsung Elec. +5.0% at open, while HSI futures were flat overnight and FTSE A50 futures +1.1%.

**US–China tariffs**: From 13:01 today, China extends the suspension of the 24% surcharge on US imports by two months, keeping 10% in place. This is the fifth extension, with the window shortened from one year to two months.

**AMD** | $834.1bn | **+13.3%**

Oppenheimer’s Rick Schafer upgraded AMD from ‘Perform’ to ‘Outperform’ with a $600 PT (34% upside vs Fri close), calling AMD a ‘sustainable AI compute supplier.’

They see DC revenue +135% by 2027, with Anthropic volume ramping in Q1 2027 and MI500 launching in H2. AMD had already fallen over 26% in the month before the upgrade.

**Dolphin view:** Post-Q3, our ‘CPU underpins, GPU takes over’ mid-cycle thesis stands. The company guides 2027 rev. +80%+, with server CPU doubling, far above the street’s long-term ~35% model.

The debate has shifted from ‘are there orders’ to ‘can Helios deliver on time and how much margin remains.’ ([*Earnings take*](https://longbridge.cn/zh-CN/dolphin/post/44750527)) ([*Call Trans*](https://longbridge.cn/zh-CN/dolphin/post/44745842))

**TSMC TSM** | $2.02tn | **+3.5%**

Co-COO Y. C. Hou said labor shortages at sites mean the industry cannot handle the scale of building 30 fabs simultaneously. The Information reported TSMC is evaluating 3D DRAM at NVIDIA’s request, to which TSMC replied it remains focused on logic foundry and advanced packaging.

Industry sources said assisting with HBM base dies is normal division of labor and not DRAM production. TSMC reports Oct rev. today; TAIEX was +4.9% Mon and TSMC +4.7%.

**Marvell MRVL +9.5% / Cerebras CBRS +7.8% / UMC +7.5% / Arm ARM +6.7% / Intel INTC +5.5% / Qualcomm QCOM +3.7%**

Mostly followed the SOX rebound. Cerebras reports Thu.

**SK Hynix 000660.KS** | $597.4bn | **+6.9%** (open) / **Samsung Elec. 005930.KS** | **+5.0%** (open)

Some foreign houses say Samsung and SK Hynix now trade below book, and memory historically bottoms near tangible book.

**Constellation Energy CEG** | $97.8bn | **+10.5%**

Q3 print pre-market Mon: Adj. operating EPS of $5.06, far above the $3.88–3.91 consensus and +66% YoY. Revenue of ~$9.55bn was up ~45% YoY, driven mainly by Calpine consolidation.

Full-year adj. operating EPS guidance was raised and narrowed to $12.50–12.80, the second mid-point hike this year.

**Bloom Energy BE +11.9% / Vertiv VRT +9.6% / GE Vernova GEV +7.1% / Eaton ETN +5.1%**

Moved with the AI hardware rebound. MS’s power team stays high-conviction OW on Bloom, Vistra, Talen and Constellation, saying a few GW slipping from 2028 to 2029 is manageable even if DC growth slows.

**Microsoft MSFT** | $4.05tn | **+2.7%** / **Alphabet GOOGL** | $3.54tn | **+1.2%** / **Amazon AMZN** | $2.89tn | **+2.9%** / **Meta META** | $1.64tn | **+5.1%**

Google Cloud added TPU 8tx and TPU 8i Max, bringing four TPU 8 systems within a year. TPUs now serve nearly 100 customers and are planned to connect to Oracle OCI in 2027, with Alphabet up nearly 3% pre-market.

Meta’s Fundamental AI Research released its smallest, best-value model, Muse Ember, claiming superior intelligence-per-dollar vs Haiku 5.5 and GPT-6 Luna (TechCrunch). Microsoft and Amazon moved with the tape on no major stock-specific news.

**Oracle ORCL** | $373.5bn | **+3.2%**

Morgan Stanley noted the three states hosting Oracle’s DC campuses (NM, WI, TX) now have governors-elect inclined to restrict DCs. Reports tie over $50bn of short-term construction loans to those projects.

**SoftBank Group 9984.T** | **-4.2%** (Mon Tokyo close)

Reports today. Media say SoftBank is preparing contingency plans for a US DC slowdown, considering shifting build focus to other countries.

**Apple AAPL** | $5.10tn | **+2.4%** / **Dell DELL** | **+5.4%**

Traded with the broader market on no major stock-specific news. Dell reports on 11/24.

**SpaceX SPCX** | $1.93tn | **+5.8%** / **Tesla TSLA** | $1.49tn | **+5.5%**

NASA awarded about $1.3bn of lunar base contracts across eight companies, lifting space-exposed names. Goldman estimates the 12/11 Russell 1000 Growth rebalance could drive ~$10.9bn of passive buy flow into SpaceX, with insiders unlocking as the main sellers.

Bloomberg reports SpaceX plans a gas-fired plant and HPC facility at Starbase in TX, with initial capex of ~$24bn. Tesla launched Robotaxi in San Antonio on 11/9, and Elon Musk said Cybertruck reservation deposits will be refunded after production ends.

**Teradyne TER +12.7% / Aehr Test Systems AEHR +11.7% / Tower Semi TSEM +10.9% / Credo CRDO +10.3%**

Test equipment, analog foundry and high-speed interconnects rallied with SOX.

**Cloudflare NET +9.3% / TeraWulf WULF +8.9% / Hut 8 HUT +8.3%**

Cloud security and compute hosting names rose as AI trading thawed.

**Date**

**Event**

**Watch**

Tue, 11/10

US Oct CPI (21:30); TSMC Oct rev.; SoftBank earnings; CoreWeave, Hesai earnings

Does core inflation ease? See earnings previews below.

11/10–11

US–Russia–Ukraine talks (Abu Dhabi)

Can easing geopolitics cap oil?

Thu, 11/12

Cisco, Applied Materials, Nebius, SMIC, Cerebras earnings

See previews below.

Fri, 11/13

US Oct PPI

Does inflation temper hike odds?

11/16–19

BIDU (11/16), NVIDIA (11/17), Tencent (11/18), Alibaba and Lenovo (11/19) earnings

NVIDIA’s commentary on 2027 orders.

Wed, 11/18

Jensen Huang to brief three House committees

Any impact on H200 China licenses?

Week of 11/16

Anthropic IPO pricing; per WSJ aims to list 11/19 or 11/20

Valuation talk down from ~$2tn to ~$1.1–1.3tn; can the AI funding window hold?

12/10

Texas ERCOT DC interconnection audit

Will permitting resume? Wells Fargo says thaw may wait for next year's legislation post-election.

**CoreWeave CRWV | After hours 11/10**

**Watch**: With TX pausing new approvals and Microsoft reassessing new-cloud partnerships, investors want to see if new bookings and financing loosened. CoreWeave has ~4.2GW signed, and pre-announcement it wrote the governor-elect to ‘signal’ its stance.

**Dolphin focus**: Prior guide is $30bn ARR exiting 2027 with 25%–30% adj. operating margin at steady state; watch if it holds. The margin inflection is visible, but interest expense is rising in tandem.

**Applied Materials AMAT | After hours 11/12**

**Watch**: MS ranks equipment third on the shopping list, favoring Lam, MKS and AEI with AMAT at Market Weight. As long as 2027 WFE isn’t cut, capital returns remain the core equipment bull case.

**Dolphin focus**: DRAM and advanced packaging order flow, China revenue mix, and the 2027 WFE outlook.

\<End here>

**Recent Daily Recaps**

2026-11-09: [Dolphin Daily | Jensen Huang admits affair — AI repair off again?](https://longbridge.cn/zh-CN/dolphin/post/44899372)

2026-11-06: [Dolphin Daily | SOX -12%, Nasdaq worst in six years: AI capitulation day?](https://longbridge.cn/zh-CN/dolphin/post/44857753)

Risk disclosure and statement: [Dolphin Research disclaimer and general disclosures](https://support.longbridge.global/topics/misc/dolphin-disclaimer)

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> **Disclaimer: This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice.**