---
type: "Topics"
locale: "en"
url: "https://longbridge.com/en/dolphin/post/45015569.md"
description: "Nebius 3Q26 First Take: Headline numbers were solid, with both growth and profitability beating estimates. GAAP OP turned positive for the first time. That said, after CRWV’s strong print yesterday, NBIS had already rallied ~15%, front-running a decent quarter. A closer look shows several issues: delayed capacity go-lives dragged the 4Q revenue guide well below consensus; RPO was flat QoQ; and the 2027 outlook was not particularly exciting. 1) Revenue: +68% QoQ, but ~$330 mn was one-off Revenue came in at ~$980 mn, ~6% above consensus. However, roughly $330 mn was one-off ‘asset-light’ revenue (partners build compute, Nebius provides DC architecture and platform deployment), calling into question the quality of the beat. 2) Capacity go-live: slower; third-party hosted sites pushed to next year The company said multiple third-party hosted sites are delayed to 1H27. The New Jersey Microsoft project will deliver more than half by year-end, with the remainder pushed to 2Q27; self-built sites are on track and contracts tied to delayed capacity remain intact.As a result, the 2026 revenue guide was moved to the low end of the $3.0–3.4 bn range, implying 4Q revenue of ~$1.0 bn, ~30% below consensus. 3) Profit: ahead of estimates, but with ‘misleading’ factors Adj. EBITDA beat by ~29%, with margin at ~47%. GAAP OP was ~$50 mn, turning positive for the first time, but two ‘misleading’ factors were at play. First, the quarter included sizable one-off asset-light revenue, which likely carries higher margin. Also, D&A ran ~40% below consensus, likely because slower capacity ramps left a large portion of assets not yet in service. 4) Orders and pricing: pricing still rising, but RPO barely grew New contracts signed this quarter exceeded $25 mn per MW per year (vs. >$20 mn last quarter). However, this was widely anticipated by the market. Quarter-end RPO was ~$38.7 bn, up just 3% QoQ (~$1.2 bn), indicating few new wins in 3Q. Management noted contracts signed since 3Q total over $12 bn, likely concentrated in 4Q. 5) Cash flow: operating cash flow turned negative; moved to net debt Capex was ~$7.3 bn, in line with expectations but up nearly 30% QoQ. FCF was about -$7.6 bn, well below consensus. With cash down slightly and debt up by nearly $5.7 bn, NBIS moved from net cash to net debt of roughly $5.5 bn. The balance sheet deteriorated. Full-year 2026 capex was raised to ~$27 bn, implying 4Q capex of ~$11.6 bn and a continued step-up. This points to mounting investment and funding pressure. 6) 2027 outlook: revenue in line, capex far above, profitability better Revenue guidance of $12–13 bn is about 1% below consensus at the midpoint, with conservative build assumptions. Capex of $40–45 bn is ~34% above consensus at the midpoint, and the mix of higher capex vs. average revenue will raise execution-efficiency concerns. Management said 75–85% of next year’s capex will be covered by customer prepayments and contract-backed financing. Prepayments are estimated at $17–20 bn. Profitability guidance was also constructive, targeting PBT breakeven in 4Q27 (incl. interest; GAAP not specified), ahead of consensus. $Nebius(NBIS.US)"
datetime: "2026-11-12T13:35:09.000Z"
locales:
  - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/dolphin/post/45015569.md)
  - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/dolphin/post/45015569.md)
  - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/dolphin/post/45015569.md)
author: "[Dolphin Research](https://longbridge.com/en/dolphin.md)"
generator: "portal-rs"
---

# Nebius 3Q26 First Take: Headline numbers were soli…


### Related Stocks

- [MSFT.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/MSFT.US.md)
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- [CRWV.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/CRWV.US.md)

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> **Disclaimer: This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice.**