Trump says oil flow through Strait of Hormuz recovered to 18 million bpd

Summary

President Trump announced that oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz has recovered to 18 million barrels per day (bpd), nearing the pre-conflict level of 20 million bpd Zhitong. However, Goldman Sachs reports a significant gap, estimating actual flows at 15-16 million bpd, with only 10 million bpd visible via AIS tracking, suggesting a surge in ‘dark ship’ activity to bypass Iranian interference .

Impact Analysis

So, the White House is pushing this ‘Hormuz is back’ narrative, claiming 18 million barrels are flowing . But if you look at the data, it’s a classic case of management projecting confidence while the underlying operations are a mess. There’s a massive 5-to-8 million barrel gap between Trump’s numbers and what’s actually visible on radar . We’re essentially looking at a global energy supply chain running on ‘dark ships’ with transponders off to dodge Iranian tracking .

The market isn’t buying the ‘all clear’ signal—Brent staying at $95 proves the geopolitical risk premium is sticky . This isn’t a stabilized market; it’s a high-friction, high-cost workaround. Trump calling the Strait ‘US territory’ only ups the ante for a tactical miscalculation . Bottom line: ignore the ‘recovery’ headline. The real trade is the persistent volatility caused by this non-transparent supply. I’d stay long on energy names with non-Middle East exposure and keep an eye on defense, as the US naval rotation is hitting record deployment lengths to keep these ‘dark’ lanes open .