According to the Zhitong Finance APP, Soochow Securities released a research report stating that 2025 will be the first year for the mass production of CVD silicon-carbon anodes, with global total shipments expected to reach 15,000 tons. By 2030, global industry demand is expected to grow to 80,000 tons, achieving a 50-fold increase over five years. It is anticipated that silicon-carbon anode manufacturers, upstream porous carbon, and supporting materials used in silicon-carbon anodes, such as single-walled carbon nanotubes and PAA, will benefit. The report is optimistic about leading companies in various segments and recommends CNANO (688116.SH), YUANLI ACTIVE CARBON (300174.SZ), Putailai (603659.SH), BETTERRY (835185), and Xinde New Materials (301349.SZ), while paying attention to Zhongke Electric (300035.SZ), Shengquan Group (605589.SH), Ribor Fashion (603196.SH), and Defu Technology (301511.SZ).
The advantages of silicon-based anodes in high energy density are significant, and breakthroughs in CVD silicon-carbon anode technology open up market space. Silicon-based anodes can enhance battery energy density and become the upgrade direction for future anode materials. Previously, silicon-based anodes were mainly composed of ball-milled silicon-carbon anodes and silicon-oxygen anodes. The ball-milled silicon-carbon anodes still have expansion issues and poor cycling performance, while silicon-oxygen anodes have low initial efficiency, and pre-lithiation significantly increases costs, resulting in a low overall cost-performance ratio. CVD silicon-carbon anodes store silicon through a porous carbon framework and buffer the volume expansion during the lithium intercalation process through the voids within the porous carbon, resulting in low expansion rates and excellent cycling performance. Additionally, the low density and lightweight nature of the carbon framework enhance the material's energy density and performance potential, opening up market space.
The consumer market is set to grow, with power demand expected to increase in 2025, projecting global sales to reach 15,000 tons in 2025 and global demand to reach 80,000 tons by 2030. Previously, the consumer sector primarily used silicon-oxygen anodes, mainly applied in the overseas electric tool market. Starting in 2024, CVD silicon-carbon anodes will be widely used in high-end smartphone models, with a projected penetration rate of over 25% in 2025. Currently, the doping ratio of silicon-based anodes is around 6%, which is expected to increase to over 10% in the future. In the power sector, silicon-carbon anodes are initially applied in cylindrical batteries. Tesla's 21700 battery uses a ball-milled silicon-carbon anode solution with a low addition ratio, but the ball-milling method struggles to meet the performance requirements of power batteries. The 4680 battery and overseas ternary batteries are expected to adopt CVD solutions in the future, with domestic battery manufacturers leading the application in 2025. The market demand for CVD silicon-carbon anodes is expected to rise rapidly. Considering the growth in both consumer and power markets, it is projected that the demand for CVD silicon-carbon anodes will reach 15,000 tons in 2025. By 2030, as the penetration rate of CVD silicon-carbon anodes increases and costs decrease, the market space will open up, with the penetration rate expected to exceed 30%, corresponding to a total demand of around 80,000 tons.
Mainstream manufacturers are accelerating their CVD route layout, with long-term costs expected to drop below 200,000 yuan/ton, driving industry demand growth. Currently, the production capacity of silicon-based anodes is mainly composed of silicon-oxygen and ball-milled silicon-carbon anodes, with CVD capacity planning underway. Overseas Group14 has already achieved mass production, and startups like Tianmu Xian Dao and Lanxi Zhizhe have capacities in the hundreds of tons. Traditional anode companies like BETTERRY and Putailai are gradually following suit. Currently, the selling price of silicon-carbon anodes is over 400,000 yuan/ton, mainly due to the high cost proportion of porous carbon and the production equipment still being at the 20-kilogram level. Looking ahead, with the large-scale application of 100 kg equipment and the reduction of raw material costs for porous carbon, the selling price of silicon-carbon anodes is expected to drop below 200,000 yuan/ton
According to the 10% addition ratio calculation, the corresponding cost increase for negative electrodes per ton is less than 20,000, and the battery cost increases within 0.015 yuan/wh, making the overall cost controllable and further enhancing the cost-performance ratio.
Silicon-carbon negative electrodes are ramping up production, benefiting raw materials such as porous carbon, single-walled carbon nanotubes, and PAA. The core raw material for silicon-carbon negative electrodes is porous carbon, and the pore-forming technology and product design of porous carbon directly determine the performance of silicon-carbon negative electrodes, creating high industry barriers. Additionally, single-walled carbon nanotubes and PAA need to be used in conjunction with silicon-carbon negative electrodes, contributing to demand growth. It is estimated that by 2030, the demand for silicon-carbon negative electrodes will reach 80,000 tons, corresponding to a market space of 13 billion yuan. Porous carbon corresponds to a demand of 40,000 tons, and with the price dropping to around 130,000 yuan/ton, it corresponds to a market space of 5 billion yuan. Silane is expected to correspond to a demand of 40,000 tons, corresponding to a market space of 1.6 billion yuan. The addition ratio of single-walled carbon nanotube powder is expected to reach about 0.2%, corresponding to a demand of over 1,300 tons by 2030, corresponding to 330,000 tons of slurry

300174

688116

Dongxing Securities Co., Ltd. released a research report stating that 2025 will be the first year of mass production for CVD silicon-carbon anodes, with global shipments expected to reach 15,000 tons, and demand will increase to 80,000 tons by 2030, a growth of 50 times. Silicon-carbon anode manufacturers and related material suppliers will benefit, recommending leading companies such as CNANO and YUANLI ACTIVE CARBON. The breakthrough in CVD silicon-carbon anode technology enhances battery energy density, presenting a broad market outlook. It is expected that sales of power batteries will reach 15,000 tons in 2025, with a penetration rate increasing to 25%

Zhitong

YUANLI ACTIVE CARBON

CNANO

JLMAG

MediaTek

Putailai

HNZK Electric.

Valiant

Tesla

Wavelength OE

TECHTRONIC IND

SQ Group

Jilin OLED

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Porigine Chemical

NEWLIFE

awinic

Shaanxi Lighte

SUNNY OPTICAL

SANYUAN

Xinde New Material

DING LONG

Soochow Securities Co., Ltd.: 2025 will be the first year of mass production for CVD silicon-carbon anodes, and it is expected that silicon-carbon anode manufacturers and others will benefit