--- title: "CITIC Securities: Clear Demand for Hydrogen-Based Green Fuels, Trillion-Yuan Market Gradually Opens Up" type: "News" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/227286650.md" description: "CITIC Securities released a research report indicating that the hydrogen-based green fuel market is rapidly developing and is expected to reach an important milestone by 2025. Driven by domestic carbon reduction policies and the international carbon emission trading system, the demand for hydrogen-based green energy such as green methanol and green synthetic ammonia will significantly increase. Investors are advised to pay attention to core equipment manufacturing companies and green methanol operators to seize opportunities in this trillion-yuan market" datetime: "2025-02-06T00:34:04.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/227286650.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/227286650.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/227286650.md) generator: "portal-rs" --- # CITIC Securities: Clear Demand for Hydrogen-Based Green Fuels, Trillion-Yuan Market Gradually Opens Up According to the Zhitong Finance APP, CITIC Securities has released a research report stating that hydrogen-based green fuels are driven by domestic carbon reduction policies and the European Union's inclusion of the shipping industry in the carbon emissions trading system. In 2025, the industry is expected to welcome two important milestones: the substantial operation phase of green methanol projects and the accelerated investment in project construction. It is recommended to participate in investments in the hydrogen-based green energy industry along two main lines: 1) core equipment manufacturing enterprises. 2) Green methanol demand is expected to expand first, and early positioning of clean energy operators for green methanol is likely to benefit first. ## The main points of CITIC Securities are as follows: **The curtain rises on energy transition, with hydrogen-based green energy leading the way.** Hydrogen-based green energy refers to fuels such as green methanol and green synthetic ammonia that use green hydrogen as raw materials and have extremely low carbon emissions throughout their life cycle. Compared to traditional fuels, they have nearly zero carbon advantages, and compared to green hydrogen, they have the advantages of easy storage and transportation, wide downstream applications, and better compatibility with the existing energy system, thus receiving strong support from national and local policies. In recent years, the EU ETS and IMO have imposed increasingly strict carbon emission requirements on the shipping industry, and by 2025, carbon costs for EU shipping routes are expected to rise significantly, leading to demand for green methanol in shipping. The co-firing of ammonia in coal-fired power generation is seen as a key technology for carbon reduction in the thermal power industry. The National Energy Administration has proposed that by 2027, the average carbon emission level of low-carbon transformation units will decrease by 50% compared to 2023, which is expected to drive demand for green ammonia. The market size for hydrogen-based green energy will rapidly expand under the growth of demand. **Clear demand for hydrogen-based green fuels, with a trillion-yuan market gradually opening.** Based on the delivery rhythm of green methanol ship orders, the market space for green methanol in the shipping sector is predicted. It is estimated that globally, the demand for green methanol will be 4.42 million tons, 8.36 million tons, and 13.31 million tons in 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, corresponding to green hydrogen demand of 840,000 tons, 1.59 million tons, and 2.53 million tons. According to the progress of low-carbon transformation of coal-fired units, it is expected that nationwide, the co-firing of ammonia in power generation will bring green synthetic ammonia demand of 1 million tons, 9.2 million tons, and 2.62 million tons in 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, corresponding to green hydrogen demand of 20,000 tons, 160,000 tons, and 470,000 tons. If the domestic green methanol supply accounts for 20%, it is expected that domestic green hydrogen demand will be 190,000 tons, 480,000 tons, and 980,000 tons in 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively. Based on the investment amounts of existing projects, the above capacity construction will drive investments of 15.9 billion yuan, 33.6 billion yuan, and 52.2 billion yuan, and by 2030, the cumulative investment will exceed 440 billion yuan. In the total project investment, the value of electrolyzers and biomass gasification furnace equipment is relatively concentrated, estimated to account for 13% and 11% of the project investment respectively. Enterprises with strong order acquisition capabilities and technological advantages are expected to benefit. **Commercial model competitiveness: site distribution may bring cost advantages, and green certification is a key link.** Currently, there are few ports in China with green methanol refueling capabilities, and the transportation distance of products is relatively long. The cost of biomass raw materials is greatly affected by the average collection and transportation distance of local biomass, so the project's profitability is closely related to the project's location, port distance, and biomass raw material concentration. It is estimated that affected by the above factors, the gross profit margin of existing projects can fluctuate between 17% and 37%. Certifications such as ISCC are a key link for hydrogen-based green energy to ultimately obtain green premiums. Domestic projects are generally limited by the cumbersome certification process and lack of experience. Currently, five projects in China have been certified, and the sales range of related enterprises' products will significantly expand **Risk Factors:** Significant changes in green fuel technology routes; the cost reduction progress of hydrogen-based green fuels is not as expected; policy support is weaker than anticipated; the construction progress and investment implementation of hydrogen-based green fuel projects are not as expected ### Related Stocks - [600256.CN](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/600256.CN.md) - [01308.HK](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/01308.HK.md) - [00916.HK](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/00916.HK.md) - [300335.CN](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/300335.CN.md) - [00836.HK](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/00836.HK.md) - [600985.CN](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/600985.CN.md) - [605090.CN](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/605090.CN.md) - [688501.CN](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/688501.CN.md) - [000883.CN](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/000883.CN.md) - [001872.CN](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/001872.CN.md) - [600021.CN](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/600021.CN.md) - [000520.CN](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/000520.CN.md) - [06198.HK](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/06198.HK.md) - [603162.CN](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/603162.CN.md) - [601000.CN](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/601000.CN.md) - [600039.CN](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/600039.CN.md) - [603366.CN](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/603366.CN.md) - [000088.CN](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/000088.CN.md) - [06030.HK](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/06030.HK.md) - [01919.HK](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/01919.HK.md) - [000543.CN](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/000543.CN.md) - [FTEK.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/FTEK.US.md) - [00144.HK](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/00144.HK.md) - [002401.CN](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/002401.CN.md) ## Related News & Research - [Bessent's bond gambit aimed at calming markets is instead stirring inflation worries](https://longbridge.com/en/news/296642975.md) - [Scott Bessent Brings His Hedge Fund Playbook To Treasury. 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