--- title: "Debon Securities: Policies emphasize boosting consumption, focusing on the subsequent demand recovery" type: "News" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/228515321.md" description: "Debon Securities released a research report indicating that policies emphasize boosting consumption, and the liquor sector is 迎来修复行情， expecting better performance during the 2025 Spring Festival. It is recommended to focus on three main lines: first, industry leaders with strong performance certainty; second, companies that were previously damaged but are seeing demand improvement; third, companies benefiting from reforms and management enhancements. Liquor sales have declined year-on-year, but overall sales during the 2025 Spring Festival are expected to increase by 20%-30%" datetime: "2025-02-17T06:46:03.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/228515321.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/228515321.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/228515321.md) generator: "portal-rs" --- # Debon Securities: Policies emphasize boosting consumption, focusing on the subsequent demand recovery According to the Zhitong Finance APP, Debang Securities released a research report stating that with the positive promotion of consumption-boosting policies, the liquor sector is experiencing a recovery trend, and it is expected to perform better during the 2025 Spring Festival. For 2025, it is recommended to focus on three main lines: first, to allocate industry leaders and regional liquor leaders with strong performance certainty, fundamental support, and strong channel control capabilities; second, to identify companies that have been somewhat damaged previously but will benefit significantly from improved demand; third, to focus on companies that benefit from previous reforms and enhance management quality and efficiency. Although the long-term logic of various sub-sectors of consumer goods remains unchanged, their performance varies, and it is recommended to pay attention to targets that exceed performance expectations. ## Debang Securities' main viewpoints are as follows: **Liquor: Consumption-boosting policies are becoming more proactive, and the liquor sector is welcoming a recovery trend.** This week, the State Council held an executive meeting to study work related to boosting consumption, pointing out that boosting consumption is a top priority for expanding domestic demand and strengthening the domestic circulation. It is essential to change the mindset and place boosting consumption in a more prominent position. Under the expectation of more proactive consumption policies, the liquor sector rebounded this week, rising by 3.13%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 1.94 percentage points. According to the liquor industry, liquor sales during the Spring Festival in many places fell by about 10% year-on-year, but compared to the Mid-Autumn Festival in 2024, liquor sales during the Spring Festival in 2025 overall increased by about 20%-30%, showing significant improvement month-on-month. The prices of famous liquor products such as Feitian Moutai, Wuliangye, Guojiao 1573, and Moutai 1935 rose by 1%-5%, and the circulation and shipment speed further accelerated, with prices in the 300-500 yuan range declining. After the holiday, some liquor brands announced a halt in shipments. In the context of a basically balanced supply and demand during the Spring Festival, halting shipments is beneficial for improving channel profits. For 2025, it is recommended to focus on three main lines: first, to allocate industry leaders and regional liquor leaders with strong performance certainty, fundamental support, and strong channel control capabilities, recommending Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, Luzhou Laojiao, Shanxi Fenjiu, Gujing Gongjiu, Jinshiyuan, and Yingjia Gongjiu; second, to identify companies that have been somewhat damaged previously but will benefit significantly from improved demand, such as Shui Jing Fang, ZJLD, and JGJC; third, to focus on companies that benefit from previous reforms and enhance management quality and efficiency, such as Laobai Ganjiu and Jinzongzi Jiu. **Consumer Goods: The long-term logic of various sub-sectors remains unchanged, and it is recommended to pay attention to targets that exceed performance expectations.** **(1) Beer:** Chongqing Beer released its 2024 annual performance report, with total operating revenue/net profit attributable to the parent company/net profit attributable to the parent company after deducting non-recurring gains and losses for 2024 being 14.645 billion/1.245 billion/1.222 billion yuan, down 1.15%/-6.84%/-7.04% year-on-year; for Q4 2024, the figures were 1.582 billion/-87 million/-84 million yuan, with Q4 revenue down 11.45% year-on-year. Affected by the pressure on dining and entertainment channels and other on-site consumption scenarios, the company's total sales volume for 2024A/2024Q4 decreased by 0.75%/-8.03% to 2.975 million/318,000 kiloliters, but the sales proportion of high-end beer still increased. The company continues to promote a diversified brand portfolio and high-end strategy, waiting for performance recovery after demand warms up. From an industry perspective, with the introduction of a series of consumption stimulus policies, terminal demand is expected to improve. The firm believes that the recovery of on-site consumption scenarios such as dining is likely to drive the continued upgrade of beer structure, and it is recommended to pay attention to relatively stable quality leaders and targets with upward reform momentum **(2) Catering Supply Chain:** The overall performance of the sector is under pressure in 2024, with expectations for a subsequent recovery in terminal demand. Due to the continuous weakening of terminal demand, catering supply chain companies lack growth momentum overall, and most companies' valuation levels are currently at historically low levels, providing ample safety margins. It is anticipated that with policy support promoting terminal consumption, company performance may bottom out and rebound. It is recommended to focus on leading companies with stronger performance resilience and elastic targets that are expected to see demand recovery. **(3) Snack Foods:** Channel dividends still exist, and the growth potential of the sector is optimistic. The bank believes that with the positive development of bulk snacks, social e-commerce, membership store channels, and reforms in traditional supermarkets, leading high-energy enterprises still exhibit growth resilience, and there remains the possibility of exceeding performance expectations in the future. Currently, it is recommended to focus on leading companies with excellent capabilities and strong growth resilience. **(4) Dairy Products:** In H1 2024, both Yili and Mengniu have slowed down in their shipment rhythms, maintaining reasonable levels of channel and terminal inventory; the bank expects that starting from Q3 2024, the freshness of terminal products will improve, and sales are expected to gradually recover. It is recommended to pay attention to the situation of inventory preparation for the Spring Festival. 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