Hua Chuang Securities: The new order prices for photovoltaic glass are expected to rise, and the recognition of BC products continues to improve

According to Zhitong Finance APP, Huachuang Securities released a research report stating that there is currently no cold repair for photovoltaic glass in February, and the overall supply side is stable; after March, the rush for installation combined with peak season demand is expected to significantly improve production scheduling in various links. According to SMM, the production scheduling of components in March is expected to exceed 50GW. The inventory of photovoltaic glass is expected to further decrease, and there is an expectation of price increases for new orders, which is likely to drive profit recovery. It is worth mentioning that since 2024, the five major power generation groups have set BC segments in their component centralized procurement, and in January 2025, the China Datang Corporation's tender for the 2025-2026 photovoltaic component framework procurement estimates the total procurement volume for TOPCon, HJT, and BC to be 19.5/2/1GW respectively. Compared to the cancellation of PERC products in the 2024 component centralized procurement, the addition of efficient BC products marks a continuous improvement in market recognition of BC.

The main points of Huachuang Securities are as follows:

Photovoltaic glass prices are running at low levels, and the inventory inflection point is approaching. According to Zhuochuang Information, this week the price of 3.2mm coated photovoltaic glass is reported at 19.25 yuan/m2, unchanged from the previous week; the price of 2.0mm coated photovoltaic glass panels is reported at 12.00 yuan/m2, also unchanged from the previous week. As of this Thursday, the industry inventory days are approximately 37.2 days, a decrease of 2.1 days week-on-week and a decrease of 5.3% month-on-month.

There is currently no cold repair for photovoltaic glass in February, and the overall supply side is stable. According to Zhuochuang Information, since 2025, there has only been a cold repair of 3700t/d photovoltaic glass capacity in January. In February 2025, downstream procurement of photovoltaic glass is actively transacting positively. According to SMM data, the production scheduling of photovoltaic glass in February is maintained at just over 40GW, and it is expected that the overall situation in the first quarter will be in a tight balance.

With expectations of improved demand month-on-month, new order prices for photovoltaic glass in March are expected to rise. After March, the rush for installation combined with peak season demand is expected to significantly improve production scheduling in various links. According to SMM, the production scheduling of components in March is expected to exceed 50GW. The inventory of photovoltaic glass is expected to further decrease, and there is an expectation of price increases for new orders, which is likely to drive profit recovery.

The empirical results of BC products are excellent. According to the Global Photovoltaic WeChat public account, the latest data from a rooftop empirical project of a commercial building in Kunming, Yunnan has been released. This project compared the power generation of three technical routes: BC, TOPCon, and HJT, with empirical data covering from November 2024 to early February 2025. Under the same unit area, the actual power generation capacity of Longi's second-generation BC products is 6.67% higher than that of TOPCon and 7.54% higher than that of HJT; in terms of power generation per watt, Longi's second-generation BC products generate 3.6% more than TOPCon and 4.5% more than HJT.

The recognition of BC products continues to improve, and industrialization is accelerating. Since 2024, the five major power generation groups have set BC segments in their component centralized procurement. In January 2025, the China Datang Corporation's tender for the 2025-2026 photovoltaic component framework procurement estimates the total procurement volume for TOPCon, HJT, and BC to be 19.5/2/1GW respectively. Compared to the cancellation of PERC products in the 2024 component centralized procurement, the addition of efficient BC products marks a continuous improvement in market recognition of BC. According to current plans, by the end of 2025, Longi Green Energy's HPBC2.0 battery capacity is expected to reach 50GW, and Aiko Solar's ABC component capacity is expected to reach 35GW BC efficiency continues to break through, and industrialization is accelerating. It is recommended to pay attention to BC-related industrial chain targets.

Photovoltaic Industry Chain Prices:

(1) Main Material Segment: According to InfoLink Consulting, the average price of polysilicon dense material/particle material this week is 39.0/37.0 yuan/kg, unchanged/+2.8% from last week. The average price of 182-183.75mm/210mm monocrystalline P-type silicon wafers is 1.15/1.70 yuan/piece, unchanged/unchanged from last week; the average price of 182-183.75mm/182*210mm/210mm monocrystalline N-type silicon wafers is 1.18/1.30/1.55 yuan/piece, unchanged/unchanged/unchanged from last week.

The average price of 182-183.75mm/210mm monocrystalline PERC battery cells is 0.330/0.280 yuan/W, unchanged/unchanged from last week. The prices of 182-183.75mm/182210mm/210mm TOPCon battery cells are reported at 0.290/0.285/0.295 yuan/W, unchanged/+1.8%/unchanged from last week. The prices of 182182-210mm/210mm bifacial double-glass PERC modules are reported at 0.65/0.66 yuan/W, unchanged/unchanged from last week. This week, the price of 182-183.75mm TOPCon double-glass modules is reported at 0.69 yuan/W, unchanged from last week; the price of 210mm HJT double-glass modules is reported at 0.85 yuan/W, unchanged from last week.

(2) Auxiliary Material Segment: This week, the price of 3.2mm coated photovoltaic glass is reported at 19.25 yuan/m2, unchanged from last week; the price of 2.0mm coated photovoltaic glass panels is reported at 12 yuan/m2, unchanged from last week. According to Sobi Consulting, the price of transparent EVA film this week is reported at 5.89 yuan/m2, unchanged from last week; the price of white EVA film is reported at 6.42 yuan/m2, unchanged from last week; the price of POE film is reported at 8.28 yuan/m2, unchanged from last week.

Investment Recommendations:

(1) With improved supply and demand and expectations of policy regulation, the profitability of silicon materials, integrated components, and leading auxiliary materials is expected to improve. It is recommended to pay attention to: in the silicon material segment, Tongwei Co., Ltd. (600438.SH), GCL-Poly Energy Holdings Limited (03800), Daqo New Energy Corp. (688303.SH); in the integrated components segment, LONGi Green Energy Technology Co., Ltd. (601012.SH), JinkoSolar Holding Co., Ltd. (688223.SH), JA Solar Technology Co., Ltd. (002459.SZ), Trina Solar Limited (688599.SH), Canadian Solar Inc. (688472.SH); leading auxiliary materials, Foster (603806.SH), FLAT (601865.SH), Xinyi Solar Holdings Limited (00968), etc.

(2) Segments with leading new technology layouts are expected to see simultaneous growth in volume and profit. It is recommended to pay attention to: BC mass production-related, LONGi Green Energy Technology Co., Ltd. (601012.SH), Aiko Solar Energy Co., Ltd. (600732.SH), Dier Laser (300776.SZ), Yubang New Materials (301266.SZ), Guangxin Materials (300537.SZ), etc.; silver reduction/silver paste technology, Juhua Materials (688503.SH), Dike Co., Ltd. (300842.SZ) (3) Benefit from the explosion of demand in emerging markets and the layout of high-profit areas in the inverter and bracket segments. It is recommended to pay attention to: inverter segment, DeYe Co., Ltd. (605117.SH), Sungrow Power Supply Co., Ltd. (300274.SZ), Airo Energy (688708.SH), and Shangneng Electric (300827.SZ); bracket segment, CITIC Bo (688408.SH), Yihua Co., Ltd. (002897.SZ).

Risk Warning:

Terminal demand may fall short of expectations, intensified market competition, fluctuations in upstream raw material prices, trade friction factors, changes in industry policies, etc