Guotai Junan Securities: The low-altitude economy industry is rapidly developing, eVTOL companies and manufacturers are advancing airworthiness certification

According to the Zhitong Finance APP, Guosen Securities released a research report stating that from the perspective of future large-scale commercialization potential, it is estimated that the mid-term stock of domestic tourism sightseeing scenarios and commuting scenarios can bring about 24,000 and 85,000 eVTOL demands respectively, with the market size of complete machine stock sales exceeding 250 billion. The low-altitude economy industry is developing rapidly, focusing on core enterprises of domestic power systems. The low-altitude economy industry is developing rapidly, and we are optimistic about the domestic core enterprise Enpower (300681.SZ), which has deep cooperation with EHang Intelligent (EH.US), as well as Zongshen Power (001696.SZ), which has high quality and is expected to continuously win orders.

The main points of Guosen Securities are as follows:

The pattern of the low-altitude economy industry chain is initially emerging, with huge potential in the domestic market

China's low-altitude economy supply chain has formed a full-chain development pattern of "upstream independent breakthroughs, midstream collaborative tackling, and downstream standard leadership," with eVTOL and drone complete machine manufacturing as the core. The industry chain shows a trend of rapid technological iteration and capacity expansion with order landing. From the perspective of future large-scale commercialization potential, it is estimated that the mid-term stock of domestic tourism sightseeing scenarios and commuting scenarios can bring about 24,000 and 85,000 eVTOL demands respectively, with the market size of complete machine stock sales exceeding 250 billion.

The power system is the core link of the low-altitude economy industry chain

In terms of the value of eVTOL components, the power system, mainly composed of motors and electronic controls, accounts for the largest proportion of integration costs in the core structure of eVTOL. According to data from Lilium, the power system of eVTOL accounts for about 40%.

The market size of eVTOL power systems is mainly based on the demand scale of eVTOL complete machines

Based on the 250 billion complete machine stock sales market size and the cost structure of eVTOL, the mid-term stock market space for eVTOL power systems can reach a level of 100 billion.

Aviation power systems are mainly divided into traditional aviation power systems and electric propulsion systems, with traditional civil aviation passenger aircraft and military fighter jets mostly using traditional aviation power systems

Traditional aviation power systems are centered around fuel engines, with mature technology that can provide high power output, suitable for long-duration and heavy-load flights, such as regional aviation, agricultural and forestry operations, and medium to long-distance cargo transportation, but they have issues of high energy consumption, high emissions, and high noise. Traditional aviation power systems mainly include piston engines, turbojet engines, turbofan engines, turboprop engines, and turboshaft engines.

The power system of low-altitude aircraft includes power motors, electronic speed controllers (electronic controls), and propellers

The motor is the core component of the power system, mainly serving to convert electrical energy into mechanical energy, thereby generating lift and thrust. Brushless DC motors are widely used in small and medium-sized drones, while permanent magnet synchronous motors have become the preferred choice for eVTOL motors due to their higher power density and high torque density. The hybrid power system of low-altitude aircraft is gradually rising due to its better commercial application effects, while pure electric propulsion systems are expected to become the long-term mainstream choice for eVTOL and drone power systems in the future eVTOL motor airworthiness certification is a key threshold for market access, and new energy vehicle motor companies are the first to benefit

The technical barriers for eVTOL motor airworthiness are high, and the certification process is lengthy. Some mainstream domestic new energy vehicle motors have already met certain technical standards required for eVTOL, which provides a technical foundation for companies originally focused on electric vehicle motor production to enter the eVTOL motor market and actively layout in the electric aviation field. Several domestic eVTOL motor companies are in the early stages of research and development and collaboration, working with manufacturers to promote airworthiness certification.

Risk Warning: 1. Valuation risk; 2. Profit forecast risk; 3. The risk of low-altitude economy development falling short of expectations