According to the Zhitong Finance APP, China Galaxy Securities released a research report stating that the national subsidy policy continues to show a pulling effect on downstream consumption, with the home furnishing and electric bicycle industries exhibiting a strong recovery trend. In April 2025, the retail sales of furniture reached 15.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 26.9%, and the number of electric bicycles exchanged for new ones exceeded 4.2 million units, significantly surpassing market expectations. The firm is optimistic about the catalytic effect of the national subsidy policy on the performance of listed companies in 2025 and recommends paying attention to custom home furnishing company OPPEIN (603833.SH) among others. The toy sector shows high growth potential, and it is recommended to pay attention to POP MART (09992) among others.
<h2>The main points of China Galaxy Securities are as follows:</h2>
National subsidies drive stable recovery in downstream demand
Home furnishing: National subsidies continue to drive the recovery of downstream demand. In April 2025, the retail sales of furniture reached 15.3 billion yuan, up 26.9% year-on-year, with the year-on-year growth rate further increasing; the cumulative retail sales for the first four months reached 58.3 billion yuan, up 20.2% year-on-year. The national subsidy, as a long-term policy, is steadily advancing, pulling downstream retail data to continue to recover. As of April 27, 24:00, the cumulative &#34;renewal&#34; of home decoration kitchen and bathroom items reached 40.906 million pieces.
Electric bicycles: The exchange for new ones is steadily advancing. As of April 29, 2025, the nationwide exchange of old electric bicycles for new ones exceeded 4.2 million units, significantly surpassing the total for 2024, equivalent to 304.3% of the total work volume in 2024. Since the work commenced in September 2024, a total of 5.58 million old and new bicycles have been sold nationwide; as of April 13, the exchange program for electric bicycles has driven new car sales of 10.12 billion yuan.
Packaging: Stable downstream demand, aluminum prices have rebounded
In April 2025, China's total retail sales of consumer goods reached 37.174 billion yuan, up 5.1% year-on-year; from January to April 2025, the cumulative total retail sales of consumer goods reached 161.845 billion yuan, up 4.7% year-on-year. Among them, the retail sales of enterprises above designated size for beverages/tobacco and alcohol/cosmetics/daily necessities in April 2025 increased year-on-year by 2.9%/4.0%/7.2%/7.6%, indicating overall growth in downstream demand. On the cost side, as of May 23, 2025, the aluminum settlement price was 2,437 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month change of +4.70%, influenced by short-term fluctuations in supply and demand.
Light industry consumption
The LABUBU series is booming, and BLOKS is expected to join the Hong Kong Stock Connect in June. According to POP MART's 2024 financial report, the LABUBU plush trendy toy THEMONSTERS series surged from 368 million yuan in 2023 to 3.04 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 726.6%, with a monthly production capacity reaching 10 million units, becoming POP MART's largest IP, and recent market sales have been robust. On May 16, 2025, the Hang Seng Index Company announced the quarterly review results of the Hang Seng Index series as of March 31, 2025, and BLOKS was included in the Hang Seng Composite Index constituents, with all changes effective from June 9, 2025, and BLOKS will be included in the Hong Kong Stock Connect on June 9.
Investment recommendations
In the home furnishing sector, we are optimistic about the catalytic effect of the national subsidy policy on the performance of listed companies in 2025 and recommend paying attention to custom home furnishing companies OPPEIN, SFY (002572.SZ), Zhibang Home (603801.SH), Golden Home (603180.SH), and SPZP (300616.SZ);
Soft home furnishing companies Gujia Home Furnishing (603816.SH), Mousse Co., Ltd. (001323.SZ), and Xilinmen (603008.SH); the leading civil electrical appliance company Bull Group (603195.SH); the packaging sector is accelerating resource integration, recommended to pay attention to Yutong Technology (002831.SZ), Aorijun (002701.SZ), and Shanghai Ailu (301062.SZ). The toy sector shows high growth potential, recommended to pay attention to POP MART, BLOKS (00325), and Shifeng Culture (002862.SZ).
Risk Warning: The risk of the real estate market's prosperity being below expectations; the risk of downstream demand recovery being below expectations; the risk of significant increases in raw material prices; the risk of intensified industry competition

00325

002572

300616

09992

603833

China Galaxy Securities released a research report indicating that the national subsidy policy continues to drive downstream consumption, leading to a strong recovery in the home furnishings and electric bicycle industries. In April 2025, retail sales of furniture increased by 26.9% year-on-year, and the volume of electric bicycles exchanged for new ones exceeded 4.2 million units, both surpassing market expectations. The firm is optimistic about the catalytic effect of the national subsidy policy on the performance of listed companies and recommends paying attention to related companies in the custom home furnishings and toy sectors

- China Galaxy Securities reports that national subsidy policies are driving a strong recovery in downstream consumption, particularly in the home and electric bicycle sectors.  
- In April 2025, furniture retail sales grew by 26.9% year-on-year, while over 4.2 million electric bicycles were exchanged under the subsidy program, significantly exceeding market expectations.  
- The report suggests investors focus on companies like Oppein Home and Pop Mart, highlighting the positive impact of subsidies on corporate performance and the overall growth in consumer demand.

Zhitong

BLOKS

SPZP

POP MART

OPPEIN

ISHARESHSI

Hang Seng Index

ORG Technology

ZBOM

Shanghai Ailu

Hang Seng Composite Index

Jason Furniture

Shifeng Cultural

YUTO TECH.

xilinmen

GONEO

China Galaxy Securities: National subsidies drive demand recovery, toy sector maintains high prosperity