--- title: "Guotai Junan Securities: Short, medium, and long-term logic coexist, and the opportunities in the wind power sector are clear" type: "News" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/246017640.md" description: "Guojin Securities released a research report indicating that the wind power sector has favorable logic in the short, medium, and long term. It is expected that the manufacturing side's profitability will recover in 25H2 and 26FY, benefiting from high-priced orders for onshore wind and the advancement of offshore wind projects. In the short term, the semi-annual report shows optimistic performance, with significant improvements in the performance of some companies; in the medium term, the recovery of wind turbine prices and the increased certainty of offshore wind project advancement will drive the sector's development" datetime: "2025-06-25T06:10:05.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/246017640.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/246017640.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/246017640.md) --- # Guotai Junan Securities: Short, medium, and long-term logic coexist, and the opportunities in the wind power sector are clear According to the Zhitong Finance APP, Guojin Securities released a research report stating that with the increase in high-priced orders for Landwind and the proportion of high-profit orders from "Two Seas," it is expected that the manufacturing profits in 25H2 & 26FY will trend towards recovery. The firm believes that the wind power sector has a triple logic worth firmly optimistic in the short, medium, and long term. It is optimistic about the continuous improvement of the fundamentals of wind power complete machines, the trend of recovery in manufacturing profits in 25H2 & 26FY; in terms of offshore wind and wind power going abroad, the acceleration of domestic offshore wind construction drives the profitability elasticity of pipe piles and submarine cables, and the recovery of offshore wind prosperity in Europe is expected to exceed expectations; the Q2 regular production peak season for wind power components is expected to release performance elasticity after price increases are fully implemented. ## The main points of Guojin Securities are as follows: **At the current point in time, the firm believes that the wind power sector has a triple logic worth firmly optimistic in the short, medium, and long term.** **Short-term logic:** Strong semi-annual reports and performance outlook for the second half of the year. Mid-year market attention is gradually focusing on corporate semi-annual reports. The wind power sector benefits from the vigorous commencement of domestic projects in the first half of the year, the increase in the proportion of income from the Two Seas, and the implementation of price increases for some components. It is expected that Q2 performance will generally show optimistic growth compared to the previous quarter and year-on-year, with the strong stock price performance of some companies showing performance improvement elasticity in 25Q1 forming a positive demonstration effect for the sector, and it is expected to spread to the entire wind power sector around the semi-annual report. **Medium-term logic (core):** The three major factors that previously caused poor investment sentiment in the wind power sector have all shown significant reversal in the past six months to a year. 1. The price war of wind turbines has shifted the industrial chain from deflation to inflation: Due to the rapid large-scale development of wind turbines and price wars, the price of domestic land wind turbines dropped rapidly from 3000-4000 yuan/kW to 1000-2000 yuan/kW from 21-24, leading to deflation in upstream components, towers, and other links; however, with the slowdown of large-scale development, corporate self-discipline, and owners' increased emphasis on wind turbine quality and operation and maintenance costs, wind turbine prices have continued to warm since 24Q4. The firm statistics show that the average bidding price of land wind turbines in April-May 25 has increased by 11% compared to the average price for the entire year of 24; 2. The certainty of domestic offshore wind projects has significantly increased: Previously, due to approval delays, many key projects in Jiangsu, Guangdong, and other areas were frequently postponed. Although the annual average bidding for offshore wind from 22-24 was nearly 12GW, the annual average installed capacity was only 6GW; however, since the beginning of 25, projects in Guangdong and Jiangsu have been successively launched, and deep-sea demonstration projects in regions such as Zhejiang are accelerating. In January 25, the Ministry of Natural Resources issued documents to optimize the sea approval for offshore wind projects, significantly reducing the probability of delays in subsequent new projects during the construction process; 3. The demand for offshore wind in Europe has significantly rebounded: Previously, due to rising costs, interest rates, and delayed policy adjustments, the profitability of offshore wind projects in Europe was under pressure, and the demand release for many planned projects was below expectations. However, since the second half of last year, driven by the firm energy autonomy demands of various European countries, offshore wind policy adjustments in countries such as the UK and Denmark have been successively implemented, increasing support/subsidy intensity, while interest rates continue to decline, and project profitability is gradually recovering. From January to May, the scale of European offshore wind FID increased by 107% year-on-year compared to 24 **Long-term Logic:** 1) The output curve characteristics of offshore and onshore wind power have significant comprehensive price advantages under the background of comprehensive market-oriented trading of new energy; 2) Even with sustained high demand, considering barriers such as technology and funding, as well as the structure of end customers dominated by central state-owned enterprises and large overseas energy groups, the wind power industry is expected to maintain a relatively stable competitive landscape, making it difficult for a large number of new entrants to emerge; 3) There is still considerable export substitution space in most segments of the industrial chain, and overseas markets provide additional growth potential. **On the demand side, strong internally and externally, optimistic about maintaining a high level of global wind power installations in 2026, supporting the continuation of high prosperity in the industry** 1. Domestic: From January to May, 531 domestic installations were completed, with new wind power grid connections of about 46GW, a year-on-year increase of 134%; offshore wind construction is accelerating, with the current scale of offshore construction projects exceeding 9GW, and it is expected that domestic onshore wind installations will reach 100GW and offshore wind installations will reach 10GW in 2025; from January to May, the bidding scale for wind turbines by central state-owned enterprises was about 50GW, a year-on-year increase of 27%, and it is expected that domestic wind power demand will likely remain above 100GW in 2026. 2. Overseas: The profitability of European offshore wind projects continues to recover, and project investments are accelerating as grid connection deadlines approach, with an estimated demand of about 52GW for European offshore wind from 2025 to 2030; additionally, offshore wind development is accelerating in regions such as South Korea, Australia, and the Philippines, which is expected to contribute significant demand growth after 2028. **Investment Recommendations: Sequentially optimistic about three main lines: complete machines, two seas, and components** 1. Complete Machines: The fundamentals continue to improve, optimistic about the trend of profit recovery in the manufacturing sector in H2 2025 & FY 2026. On the price side, the weighted average winning bid price for domestic onshore wind (excluding towers) in April-May 2025 was 1589 yuan/kW, an increase of 11% year-on-year compared to FY 2024; in terms of "two seas," domestic offshore wind construction is accelerating, with a high certainty of 10GW installations this year, and good overseas expansion, with overseas orders increasing by 189% year-on-year from January to May. As the proportion of high-priced orders for onshore wind and high-profit orders for "two seas" continues to rise, the firm is optimistic about the trend of profit recovery in the manufacturing sector in H2 2025 & FY 2026. Key recommendations: Goldwind, Yunda Co., Ltd., MYSE, Sany Renewable Energy, etc.; 2. Two Seas (Offshore Wind & Going Abroad): The acceleration of domestic offshore wind construction drives the profitability elasticity of pile and submarine cable segments, with a recovery in European offshore wind prosperity, and orders expected to exceed expectations. As key domestic offshore wind projects commence, pile companies are expected to see a significant increase in shipment volumes in Q2, quickly releasing performance elasticity, while submarine cable construction may see performance elasticity reflected relatively later, expected to manifest as early as Q3 2025. Overseas, with the recovery of European offshore wind profitability and the approaching grid connection deadlines, project advancement is expected to accelerate, with significant bidding for foundations and submarine cables. Key recommendations: Dajin Heavy Industry, Dongfang Cable, HAILI WIND POWER, etc.; 3. Components: Q2 is the peak season for regular production, optimistic about the release of performance elasticity after price increases are fully implemented. Affected by wind power installations, component revenues show strong seasonal characteristics, with Q2 being the regular production peak season for castings and forgings. Coupled with the full implementation of new prices starting in Q2 (some price increases in Q1, such as castings, forgings, and blades, are still affected by a large proportion of orders executed at 2024 low prices), it is expected that in Q2, both volume and price in the component segment will rise, further releasing performance elasticity Key recommendations: Riyue Holdings, JINLEI, etc ### Related Stocks - [300443.CN](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/300443.CN.md) - [601615.CN](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/601615.CN.md) - [688349.CN](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/688349.CN.md) - [301155.CN](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/301155.CN.md) - [002202.CN](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/002202.CN.md) - [02208.HK](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/02208.HK.md) - [300772.CN](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/300772.CN.md) - [002487.CN](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/002487.CN.md) - [603606.CN](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/603606.CN.md) - [603218.CN](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/603218.CN.md) - [600109.CN](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/600109.CN.md) ## Related News & Research - [Iberdrola plans €1.8 billion Whitelee repowering to lift onshore wind capacity to 1,000 MW](https://longbridge.com/en/news/294490466.md) - [Dajin Heavy Industry adopts China accounting standards for all financial reporting](https://longbridge.com/en/news/293933927.md) - [ESPE raises Soland stake to 55% in EUR 1.18 million deal](https://longbridge.com/en/news/294391268.md) - [ERG announces availability of H1 2026 interim financial report](https://longbridge.com/en/news/294572882.md) - [Official FO: AI Quant Agents go live with passive mode - Aug 2026](https://longbridge.com/en/news/294567741.md)