Soochow Securities Co., Ltd.: Machine tool & new energy demand steadily grows, humanoid robots catalyze the localization of lead screws

According to the Zhitong Finance APP, Soochow Securities released a research report stating that the screw rod is a core transmission component with high technical barriers, and the domestic substitution rate is lower compared to other core components. The firm believes that as the production of high-end machine tools/high-end equipment in China increases, it will drive the demand for ball screws; the development of new energy vehicles has broadened the application prospects for screw rods; and the gradual industrialization and scaling of humanoid robots will significantly enhance the market space for planetary roller screw rods. It recommends FOTO (603166.SH) and SHBT (603009.SH), and pays attention to Shuanglin Co., Ltd. (300100.SZ), Wuzhou Xinchun (603667.SH), Rongtai Co., Ltd. (605133.SH), and Zhenyu Technology (300953.SZ). The main points of Soochow Securities are as follows: Screw rods are widely used as linear transmission components, and the thread processing technology is the core barrier for screw rod manufacturing. A screw rod is a mechanical transmission element primarily used to convert rotary motion into linear motion. It can be classified into three types based on friction characteristics: trapezoidal screw rods, ball screw rods, and roller screw rods, and is widely used in machine tools, aerospace, robotics, and automotive fields. The transmission efficiency of ball screw rods generally reaches 90%-96%, which is about 2-4 times that of trapezoidal screw rods. Planetary roller screw rods outperform ball screw rods in terms of load capacity, lifespan, lead, space, and speed. The main manufacturing technologies for screw rod thread pairs currently include grinding technology, rolling forming, and whirlwind milling technology. Grinding offers high precision, rolling provides high efficiency, and whirlwind milling is relatively balanced. Stable growth in machine tools & new energy demand, humanoid robots open new market space. Screw rods account for about 19% of the value of humanoid robots, which brings substantial market demand. If the firm assumes that a single humanoid robot requires a stable demand of 14 planetary roller screw rods, and considering the use of micro planetary roller screw rods (17 units) in dexterous hand hollow cup joints, the potential market demand is even broader. It is expected that by 2030, the corresponding market for planetary roller screw rods will exceed 45 billion yuan. European companies occupy the vast majority of market share, indicating significant room for domestic substitution. Major global roller screw rod manufacturers include Ewellix (part of the SKF Group), Rollvis (Switzerland), GSA (Switzerland), Rexroth (Germany), CMC (USA), Nanjing Technology (China), and Jining Bote (China). In 2023, Rollvis and GSA held market shares of 29% and 27% respectively in China's roller screw rod sector, accounting for nearly 60% combined, while Nanjing Technology and Jining Bote had market shares of approximately 6% and 5%, indicating substantial room for domestic substitution. Risk Warning: The industrialization progress of humanoid robots may fall short of expectations; the domestic substitution of roller screw rods may not meet expectations; future competition may intensify, leading to lower-than-expected prices; risks of supply chain fluctuations