I'm LongbridgeAI, I can summarize articles.According to the Zhitong Finance APP, Kaiyuan Securities released a research report stating that, according to Baichuan Yingfu data, by the end of 2024, the domestic phosphate rock design capacity will be 19.447 million tons/year, with an effective capacity of 11.916 million tons/year. The planned new capacity from 2025 to 2027 totals 5.895 million tons/year, with planned new phosphate rock capacity of 2.285, 3.030, and 0.580 million tons/year respectively for 2025-2027. It is estimated that domestic phosphate rock production will be 12.038, 13.633, and 15.173 million tons from 2025 to 2027. On the product side, the "phosphate rock - yellow phosphorus / (wet) phosphoric acid - iron phosphate" industrial chain is expanding in an orderly manner, driving high demand for phosphoric acid. Domestic wet phosphoric acid capacity continues to expand, and the harmless and resourceful utilization of its by-product phosphogypsum has become a key factor affecting the development of phosphate chemical enterprises.
The main viewpoints of Kaiyuan Securities are as follows:
Phosphate Chemicals: Phosphate rock remains at a high level, optimistic about the long-term prosperity and high dividends of integrated mining companies
Since 2024, phosphate rock prices have remained strong at high levels, and the downstream products such as monoammonium phosphate and feed-grade calcium have been optimized in an orderly manner. Listed companies in the phosphate chemical sector, such as Yuntianhua, Chuanheng Shares, Batian Shares, and Xinyangfeng, have shown impressive operating performance with considerable dividend ratios. Kaiyuan Securities still adheres to its previous viewpoint: the barriers to phosphate mining and selection are increasing, and the high difficulty of phosphogypsum treatment may lead to phosphate rock supply growth being lower than expected, with the price center likely to remain high; the continuous optimization of the downstream phosphate chemical product structure helps companies maintain stable operations. Coupled with the fact that most companies are reducing capital expenditures on iron phosphate, the motivation for cash dividends is further enhanced based on stable operating performance and sufficient operating cash flow. The integrated phosphate chemical companies with "mining, selection, and processing" are expected to have solid barriers, with long-term prosperity and high dividends resonating.
Recommended targets: Xingfa Chem (600141.SH), Wintrue Holding (002539.SZ), etc. Beneficiary targets: Yuntianhua (600096.SH), Chuanheng Shares (002895.SZ), Batian Shares (002170.SZ), Xinyangfeng (000902.SZ), Stanley (002588.SZ), Hubei Yihua (000422.SZ), Chuanfa Longmang (002312.SZ), etc.
Resource Side: Limited new phosphate rock supply expected in 2025-2026, high prosperity likely to continue
Reserves: According to USGS data, in 2024, China's phosphate rock reserves are approximately 3.7 billion tons (a decrease of 100 million tons year-on-year, a decline of 2.6%), accounting for 5.0%. Production: According to National Bureau of Statistics data, in 2024, domestic phosphate rock production will be 11.352 million tons, an increase of 822,000 tons year-on-year, an increase of 7.8%; from January to May 2025, domestic phosphate rock production will be 4.731 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 15.0%. Price: Since 2024, phosphate rock prices in major domestic production areas have fluctuated and stabilized at high levels.
New supply: According to Baichuan Yingfu data, by the end of 2024, the domestic phosphate rock design capacity will be 19.447 million tons/year, with an effective capacity of 11.916 million tons/year. The planned new capacity from 2025 to 2027 totals 5.895 million tons/year, with planned new phosphate rock capacity of 2.285, 3.030, and 0.580 million tons/year respectively for 2025-2027. It is estimated that domestic phosphate rock production will be 12.038, 13.633, and 15, 1.73 million tons.
Product Side: Optimization of Supply in Diammonium Phosphate and Feed Calcium Industries, Continuous Production of Wet Phosphoric Acid, Steady Increase in Demand Proportion
Diammonium Phosphate: The demand proportion of phosphate fertilizer for phosphate rock remains around 60%. The industry's new production capacity is limited. Currently, the CR5 capacity proportions for domestic diammonium phosphate, agricultural monoammonium phosphate, and industrial monoammonium phosphate are 71%, 30%, and 44%, respectively. Since 2024, foreign diammonium phosphate prices and price differentials have been higher than domestic ones. Phosphoric Acid: The "Phosphate Rock - Yellow Phosphorus / (Wet) Phosphoric Acid - Iron Phosphate" industrial chain is expanding in an orderly manner, driving a high increase in phosphoric acid demand. Domestic wet phosphoric acid capacity continues to expand, and the harmless and resourceful utilization of its by-product phosphogypsum has become a key factor affecting the development of phosphate chemical enterprises. Feed-grade Phosphates: In June 2025, Chuanfa Longmang completed the acquisition of Tianbao Animal, helping to optimize the industry's supply structure.
Phosphate Rock Supply and Demand Matching: Optimistic about Continuous Optimization of Supply and Demand Structure Supporting High Price Center for Phosphate Rock
According to estimates by Kaiyuan Securities, the apparent consumption (demand) of domestic phosphate rock from 2025 to 2027 is expected to be 11.833 million tons, 12.307 million tons, and 12.504 million tons, respectively. Correspondingly, the domestic phosphate rock demand/production ratios for 2025 to 2027 are 98.3%, 90.3%, and 82.4%, respectively. It is expected that domestic phosphate rock supply and demand will still be tight in 2025, while supply and demand will tend to be relaxed in 2026-2027. We are optimistic about the continuous optimization of the supply and demand structure supporting the high price center for phosphate rock.
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