--- title: "CITIC Securities: The prosperity of branch line shipping is supported, and there are still phased investment opportunities in oil transportation" type: "News" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/247231287.md" description: "China Merchants Securities released a research report indicating that shipping stocks will experience significant fluctuations in the first half of 2025 due to tariffs and geopolitical conflicts, but will show an overall upward trend, with the Shenwan Shipping Index rising by 1.9%. It is expected that the container shipping market will have good prosperity in the second half of the year, and there will still be phased investment opportunities in the tanker market. It is recommended to pay attention to COSCO Ship Hold and Cosco Shipping Specialized. The regional container shipping market will benefit from the increase in inter-regional maritime trade, with freight rates remaining high, and it is expected that performance will grow significantly in the first half of the year" datetime: "2025-07-04T02:06:04.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/247231287.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/247231287.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/247231287.md) generator: "portal-rs" --- # CITIC Securities: The prosperity of branch line shipping is supported, and there are still phased investment opportunities in oil transportation According to the Zhitong Finance APP, China Merchants Securities released a research report stating that in the first half of 2025, shipping stocks were significantly affected by tariffs and geopolitical conflicts, but overall showed an upward trend. The Shenwan Shipping Index has risen by 1.9% year-to-date, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 4.1 percentage points. The container shipping market is expected to be relatively favorable in the second half of 2025, and there are still periodic investment opportunities in the tanker market; it is recommended to pay attention to COSCO SHIP HOLD (601919.SH) and Cosco Shipping Specialized (600428.SH) in the medium to long term. In the second half of 2025, priority can be given to the regional container shipping market, benefiting from the increase in maritime trade between regions, with freight rates remaining relatively high; it is expected that the performance of regional container shipping companies will show significant growth in the first half of the year. ## The main points of China Merchants Securities are as follows: **In the first half of 2025, shipping stocks were significantly affected by tariffs and geopolitical conflicts, but overall showed an upward trend.** In this cyclical industry, there is a clear positive correlation between high-frequency freight rates and stock prices. In container shipping, the temporary rush for shipments has increased freight rate elasticity, and the average CCFI remains high; in the tanker market, freight rates benefited from increased production by oil-producing countries and intensified U.S. sanctions, showing a recovery trend from the bottom, but due to last year's high base, the average BDTI freight rate has decreased year-on-year; dry bulk shipping experienced a relatively weak market in the first half of the year, with high coal and iron ore inventories, leading to a year-on-year decline in the BDI average. From the perspective of industry performance, the Shenwan Shipping Index has risen by 1.9% year-to-date, while the CSI 300 Index has fallen by 2.2%, with the shipping sector outperforming the CSI 300 by 4.1 percentage points. In terms of performance, container shipping-related stocks have shown strong gains since the beginning of 2025. **Container Shipping** Capacity delivery continues, and demand is significantly affected by tariffs and geopolitical conflicts. In the first half of 2025, freight rates experienced significant fluctuations due to repeated adjustments in tariff policies, but the overall market sentiment remains good. Currently, U.S.-China trade policies are tending to ease. Supply and demand forecast: It is expected that the growth rate of demand in ton-miles for 2025/26 will be 2.6%/-2.9% (assuming the Red Sea remains closed in 2025 and gradually opens in 2026); capacity growth rates are expected to be 6.7%/4.1%. Freight rate outlook: In the second half of 2025, based on the recovery of U.S.-China routes and the assumption that the Red Sea remains detoured, dry bulk freight rates are expected to return to normal seasonal variations after a high-level decline (weakening the rush for shipments). The delivery pressure for small and medium-sized vessels is relatively low, and the market sentiment in the Asia-Pacific region and emerging international markets may be better than that of main routes. **Tanker Shipping** Heavily influenced by geopolitical conflicts, the supply-demand pattern for VLCCs in 2025 remains favorable. In the first half of 2025, freight rates were significantly affected by conflicts in the Middle East and increased U.S. sanctions against Iran, showing notable fluctuations. After the escalation of the Israel-Iran conflict in June, there was a brief ceasefire, and tanker freight rates surged and then fell back. Supply and demand forecast: The macroeconomic outlook is uncertain, but Asian countries support oil demand, with expected growth rates for oil demand in ton-miles for 2025-26 at 0.5%/-1.3%, and capacity growth rates at 2.1%/4%. However, VLCC capacity growth is limited, with expected growth rates of 0%/2.5% for 2025-26. In terms of freight rates, the supply-demand relationship in the VLCC market in 2025 is favorable, and during peak seasons, large vessel market freight rates still have upward elasticity. **Dry Bulk Shipping** The market sentiment in 2025 is expected to decline year-on-year, with a focus on improving iron ore trade ton-miles in 2026. Due to the current high inventory of bulk commodities, transportation volume has slowed, putting downward pressure on the average freight rate in the first half of 2025 Supply and Demand Forecast: Looking ahead to 2025-2026, due to weakening demand and high domestic inventory, the growth rate of bulk commodity trade will slow down; however, benefiting from the development of new energy and new industries, the trade volume of small metal bulk and bauxite will still have support. Overall, it is expected that the growth rates of dry bulk ton-mile demand in 2025 and 2026 will be -0.8% and 0.9%, respectively, while the growth rates of capacity will be 3.1% and 3.2%, respectively. However, the growth of Capesize capacity is limited, with growth rates of 1.4% and 1.9% in 2025 and 2026, respectively. In terms of freight rates, it is expected that there may be a slight recovery in the peak season of Q3 2025 compared to the previous quarter, but the overall prosperity is weaker than last year; in 2026, with the increase in the proportion of long-haul cargo and the easing of China-U.S. trade relations, freight rates are expected to recover. **Target Aspects** In the second half of 2025, priority can be given to the regional container shipping market, benefiting from the increase in maritime trade between regions, with freight rates still at relatively high levels; it is expected that the performance of regional container shipping companies will show significant growth in the first half of the year, with a focus on Yang Ming Marine Transport, SITC International Holdings, and Zhonggu Logistics. Additionally, attention can still be paid to the left-side layout opportunities in the tanker stocks, which currently have relatively low valuations and significant elasticity during the peak season (or if regional conflicts escalate); focus can be on COSCO Shipping Energy, and China Merchants Jinling (dividend progress is expected to accelerate). In the medium to long term, it is recommended to pay attention to COSCO Shipping Holdings (stable cash flow, better corporate governance) and COSCO Shipping Specialized (rapid scale expansion in the next two years, performance following cargo volume growth). **Risk Warning:** Macroeconomic downturn, major natural disasters, major oil-producing countries' output falling short of expectations, geopolitical risks, deterioration of China-U.S. trade relations, etc ### Related Stocks - [600428.CN](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/600428.CN.md) - [601919.CN](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/601919.CN.md) - [01919.HK](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/01919.HK.md) ## Related News & Research - [Bessent's bond gambit aimed at calming markets is instead stirring inflation worries](https://longbridge.com/en/news/296642975.md) - [Negative Link Announces Global Expansion and Next Phase of Growth](https://longbridge.com/en/news/296644416.md) - [Trump’s Bond Buyback Push Puts Kevin Warsh in a Tough Spot — Peter Schiff Says Treasury ‘Pulled the Rug Out From Under’](https://longbridge.com/en/news/296615127.md) - [Scott Bessent Brings His Hedge Fund Playbook To Treasury. 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