--- title: "Open Source Securities: Since June, the overselling of live pigs has strengthened the trend of supply contraction, and a new round of increase in pig prices may begin" type: "News" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/249341738.md" description: "KaiYuan Securities released a research report indicating that since June, the phenomenon of overselling live pigs has intensified. It is expected that the supply of live pigs will contract in the third quarter of 2025, and pig prices are likely to rise month by month. From June to mid-July, the industry experienced two rounds of overselling, leading to the overselling of large pigs by individual farmers, further driving up pig prices. The supply-demand pattern has improved, with the gross white price difference strengthening month-on-month, and the storage of frozen products providing support for pig prices. In June, the profit from live pig farming narrowed month-on-month, and the average selling price and average weight of listed pig companies' marketings both decreased" datetime: "2025-07-21T06:41:04.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/249341738.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/249341738.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/249341738.md) generator: "portal-rs" --- # Open Source Securities: Since June, the overselling of live pigs has strengthened the trend of supply contraction, and a new round of increase in pig prices may begin According to the Zhitong Finance APP, Kaiyuan Securities released a research report stating that from June to mid-July, live pigs were oversold, and under the background of supply contraction in Q3 2025, the increase in pig prices may be more significant. There were two rounds of overselling in the industry from June to mid-July: the first round was from early June to mid-June, where groups oversold and reduced weight for slaughter; the second round was from early July to mid-July, where individual farmers oversold large pigs under high temperatures and attempted to buy small-weight pigs at low prices to get through the summer. July itself is already in the core period of the supply contraction window, and the current overselling of large pigs by individual farmers may lead to low-price purchases of pigs in the future, which could further drive up pig prices. The supply of live pigs in Q3 2025 has contracted, and the price center of pigs is expected to rise month by month. ## The main viewpoints of Kaiyuan Securities are as follows: **Improvement in supply-demand pattern, gross white price difference strengthens month-on-month, frozen products entering storage provide support for pig prices** As of July 17, 2025, the gross white price difference monitored by Yongyi was 4.71 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.45 yuan/kg compared to the same period in June, lower than the same period in 2024 but higher than in 2023. The national frozen product storage capacity rate is 16.85%, a year-on-year decrease of 0.03 percentage points. The profit from pig farming in June narrowed month-on-month, and the number of breeding sows in the industry slightly increased both year-on-year and month-on-month. Affected by the decline in pig prices, the average profit per head for self-bred and self-raised pigs in the industry in June was 25.15 yuan/head (month-on-month decrease of 62.35%). According to the National Bureau of Statistics, as of June 2025, the number of breeding sows in China was 40.43 million, a year-on-year increase of 0.12% and a month-on-month increase of 0.02%. As of July 17, 2025, the price of 15 kg piglets in large-scale farms slightly increased to 542 yuan/head, a year-on-year decrease of 103 yuan/head, and an increase of 91 yuan/head compared to the same period in 2023. **Enterprises: The average selling price of live pigs for listed pig companies in June decreased month-on-month, and the average weight for slaughter decreased month-on-month** As of July 10, 2025, 12 listed pig companies released their June sales data. The total number of live pigs sold by listed pig farming companies in June was 16.1481 million heads, a year-on-year increase of 45.98%. The slaughter volumes for Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, New Hope, Zhengbang Technology, Tianbang Food, DBN Group, COFCO Joycome, Tiankang Biological, Tangrenshen, Jinxinnong, KINGKEY SMART AGRI, and Shennong Group in June were 836.70, 300.73, 133.00, 68.05, 50.63, 66.61, 42.70, 24.31, 41.32, 11.22, 17.64, and 21.90 thousand heads, respectively, with year-on-year changes of +65.1%, +28.9%, +3.4%, +186.5%, +2.3%, +85.9%, +62.4%, -6.1%, +40.8%, +71.3%, +6.3%, and -7.5%. **In terms of average weight for slaughter, the average weight of commercial pigs for Wens Foodstuff Group and DBN Group in June was 113.7 and 125.9 kg/head, with month-on-month changes of -1.2 and -1.5 kg/head, respectively.** In terms of average selling price, the average selling price of the main 10 listed pig companies decreased month-on-month. The average selling prices of commercial pigs for Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, New Hope, Zhengbang Technology, Tianbang Food, DBN Group, COFCO Joycome, Tiankang Biological, KINGKEY SMART AGRI, and Shennong Group in June were 14.08, 14.39, 14.18, 14.05, 14.36, 14.09, 14.08, 13.23, 15.15, and 14.35 yuan/kg, respectively, with month-on-month changes of -3%, -2%, -2.8% -2.4%, -1.8%, -2.1%, -3.8%, -5.6%, +1.9%, -0.6%. **Risk Warning:** Abnormal fluctuations in pig prices, uncertainty of epidemics, and the decline in breeding costs of listed companies not meeting expectations ### Related Stocks - [002385.CN](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/002385.CN.md) - [000876.CN](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/000876.CN.md) - [000048.CN](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/000048.CN.md) - [300498.CN](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/300498.CN.md) - [002714.CN](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/002714.CN.md) - [605296.CN](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/605296.CN.md) ## Related News & Research - [Cocoa Prices Fall on Rising Nigerian Cocoa Exports](https://longbridge.com/en/news/296637826.md) - [JL Mag Rare-Earth seeks shareholder nod to shift USD 15 million of convertible bond proceeds from H-share buybacks to debt repayment, raw materials](https://longbridge.com/en/news/296493279.md) - [Soccerment Group Launches Sics Atlas, the First AI-Native Football Platform for Match Analysis and Scouting](https://longbridge.com/en/news/296495845.md) - [Exxaro Resources Non-GAAP EPS of R 13.77, revenue of R 22.1B; reaffirms FY 2026 outlook](https://longbridge.com/en/news/296457906.md) - [US Cocoa Futures (COCOA-F) Surges on Aug 19: Key Factors to Watch](https://longbridge.com/en/news/296344984.md) --- > **Disclaimer: This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice.**