Cathay Securities and Haitong Securities: The cheese industry is expected to expand in the long term, recommending an increase in holdings of Milkground

According to the Zhitong Finance APP, Guotai Junan has released a research report stating that China's cheese consumption share and per capita consumption are significantly lower than those of Japan, South Korea, the UK, and the US, indicating that the industry is still in a growth phase. Domestically, children's cheese sticks serve as the basic market, while diversified categories are expanding to consumers of all ages. With deep penetration in the C-end and strategic layout in the B-end, combined with the trend of domestic substitution, the performance growth of leading companies is entering a fast track. It is recommended to increase holdings in: Milkground (600882.SH). The main points of Guotai Junan are as follows: Low cheese penetration rate, large industry space China's cheese consumption share and per capita consumption are significantly lower than those of Japan, South Korea, the UK, and the US, indicating that the industry is still in a growth phase. On the supply side, there are few new enterprises, the competitive landscape is stabilizing, and policy regulations are expected to further enhance industry concentration. However, the self-sufficiency rate of cheese remains low, and local production capacity urgently needs to be released. On the demand side, the C-end is gradually extending from children's demand to consumers of all ages, expanding consumption scenarios in dining and snacks. Learning from Japan, the cheese industry is expected to expand long-term; seizing market opportunities and continuous consumer education are the focus for leaders In 2024, China's per capita cheese consumption is only 0.2 kg, which has significant room for improvement compared to Japan's 1.8 kg per capita. Referring to the development history of Japan's cheese industry, events like the World Expo and the Olympics have popularized cheese as part of Western dietary culture in Japan, and with the expansion of affordable Western restaurant chains in Japan, local cheese demand has rapidly increased. At the critical expansion turning point, combined with proactive market education, international cooperation, and localized R&D, Japan's cheese industry has continued to expand, transforming cheese from a rare imported product into a national delicacy. By 2000, cheese products sold in Japanese supermarkets accounted for 70% of total dairy product sales, and about 74% of Japanese consumers reported eating cheese almost every month. Milkground's leading advantages are prominent; it is expected to integrate matrix channels and release cost dividends in the short term, and continuously strengthen deep processing to open up growth space in the long term Currently, Milkground maintains a leading market share, continuously consolidating its leading advantage through strong collaboration with Mengniu and its own innovative growth. In terms of products, the company focuses on the cheese main business, continuously enriching and optimizing its product matrix. The C-end cheese sticks are steadily expanding from low-temperature to room temperature, and new product forms are constantly being introduced. The B-end operates dual brands with complementary products; Mengniu's cheese B-end brand Aishi Chenxi has advantageous products such as cream and butter, while Milkground's main brand B-end advantageous products include mozzarella, cheese slices, and original cheese, reinforcing combination synergy. In terms of channels, the company is gradually moving from a focus on key accounts (KA) to diversification in the C-end, actively laying out growth channels such as snack wholesale, membership stores, and convenience stores, while expanding cooperation with catering and industrial enterprises in the B-end. In terms of operations, after integrating Mengniu cheese, the company strengthens synergy and mutual empowerment in all aspects from upstream procurement to downstream sales, and from operational management to brand effects. The firm believes that through strengthening product and channel innovation, as well as enhancing synergy with Mengniu cheese, the company's net profit margin is expected to achieve significant improvement in the future. In the long term, the high value and wide application of cheese processing by-products are expected to drive product innovation and performance growth through the improvement of the deep processing system, while enhancing production efficiency and profitability Risk Warning: Intensified industry competition, significant rise in raw material costs, food safety incidents