Cinda Securities: Tariff disruptions affect Q2 tire performance, raw materials continue to decline year-on-year

According to Zhitong Finance APP, Xinda Securities released a research report stating that the tire raw material price index in August was 153.52, an increase of 1.07% month-on-month and a decrease of 7.18% year-on-year. Among them, the average price of natural rubber was 14,094 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.65% month-on-month and an increase of 1.03% year-on-year; the average price of styrene-butadiene rubber was 12,266 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.38% month-on-month and a decrease of 18.81% year-on-year; the average price of carbon black was 6,792 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.24% month-on-month and a decrease of 16.58% year-on-year. In Q2 2025, ten A-share listed tire companies achieved a total revenue of 39.833 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.27% and a month-on-month increase of 5.97%, with a net profit attributable to the parent company of 3.187 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 22.76% and a month-on-month increase of 0.41%. In the first half of 2025, the escalation of international trade barriers may make the key to future industry competition lie in globalization layout and brand power enhancement.

The main viewpoints of Xinda Securities are as follows:

Demand in the U.S. Market

In July, the retail sales of automotive parts and tire stores in the U.S. amounted to 11.945 billion USD, an increase of 2.80% month-on-month and an increase of 2.42% year-on-year. In August 2025, U.S. gasoline consumption was 9.0478 million barrels per day, an increase of 1.19% month-on-month and a decrease of 0.46% year-on-year; diesel consumption was 3.8594 million barrels per day, an increase of 9.96% month-on-month and an increase of 4.80% year-on-year; U.S. automobile sales were 1.4568 million units, an increase of 6.17% month-on-month and an increase of 2.48% year-on-year. Xinda Securities believes that the sales of automotive parts and tire stores in the U.S. remain at a historically high level for the same period, with gasoline and diesel consumption and automobile sales relatively stable, indicating that overall downstream demand for tires is relatively stable.

U.S. Import Demand

In July, the number of semi-steel tires imported into the U.S. was 18.6138 million units, an increase of 10.21% month-on-month and an increase of 6.06% year-on-year; the number of full-steel tires imported was 2.0833 million units, an increase of 8.98% month-on-month and an increase of 49.21% year-on-year. In July, the import volume of semi-steel and full-steel tires in the U.S. was at a historically high level for the same period, indicating that overall demand remains robust.

August Tire Raw Material Price Index Continues to Decline Year-on-Year

The tire raw material price index in August was 153.52, an increase of 1.07% month-on-month and a decrease of 7.18% year-on-year. Among them, the average price of natural rubber was 14,094 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.65% month-on-month and an increase of 1.03% year-on-year; the average price of styrene-butadiene rubber was 12,266 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.38% month-on-month and a decrease of 18.81% year-on-year; the average price of carbon black was 6,792 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.24% month-on-month and a decrease of 16.58% year-on-year.

August Shipping Costs Show a Downward Trend. In August, the average value of the Baltic Global Container Freight Index (FBX) was 2,107.65 points, a decrease of 16.73% month-on-month and a decrease of 59.91% year-on-year; the average value of the CCFI (U.S. East Coast Route) was 995.40 points, a decrease of 20.20% month-on-month and a decrease of 41.71% year-on-year; the average value of the CCFI (U.S. West Coast Route) was 820.26 points, a decrease of 16.61% month-on-month and a decrease of 44.58% year-on-year Tire Listed Companies' 2025 Semi-Annual Report Disclosure

In Q2 2025, ten A-share tire listed companies achieved a total revenue of 39.833 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.27% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 5.97%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 3.187 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 22.76% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 0.41%. Among them, Sailun Group achieved a revenue of 9.175 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.76% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 9.08%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 792 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 29.11% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 23.70%. In the first half of 2025, the escalation of international trade barriers, especially the expansion of tariff collection by the United States globally, had an adverse impact on Sailun Group and the tire industry's operations. The key to future industry competition may lie in globalization layout and brand strength enhancement.

Risk Factors

Risks of demand decline due to macroeconomic downturn; risks of rising raw material costs or falling product prices under industry cycles; risks of economic expansion policies falling short of expectations; risks of intensified international trade frictions