Guotai Junan Securities: The new game product cycle continues, seizing bottom opportunities in film and television and AI applications

According to the Zhitong Finance APP, Guosen Securities released a research report stating that it is optimistic about the gaming sector with a strong new product cycle and the film and television content industry where policy turning points have emerged, focusing on bottom opportunities in AI applications. 1) Continuously optimistic about the new product cycle in the gaming sector and the potential bottom reversal in the film and television sector, looking for individual stock alpha. The strong new product cycle is expected to drive continuous upward revisions in performance and valuation in the gaming sector, grasping product cycles and performance from the bottom up; the IP toy trend continues to be prosperous, with audiences and categories continuing to diversify; on the media side, attention is paid to the growth in advertising spending brought about by the economic bottoming out; the "21 Regulations on Broadcasting and Television" are expected to significantly improve content supply and enhance industry prosperity, with the film and television content industry likely to bottom out; 2) AI applications should focus on application scenario opportunities, paying attention to directions such as gaming, toys, advertising, education, and social networking. Guosen Securities' main viewpoints are as follows: Performance Review for the First Half of the Year: Net Profit Significantly Rebounds In the first half of 2025, A-share media sector (according to the Shenwan Media Industry Classification, the same below) listed companies achieved total operating revenue of 254.9 billion yuan and net profit attributable to the parent company of 21.8 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth of 4.06% and 28.70%, respectively; revenue showed a slight rebound compared to the same period last year, and net profit improved significantly; the main reasons are partly due to the low base effect from the same period last year and partly due to a significant decrease in expenses (management expense ratio/income tax, etc.); 2) The sector's gross profit margin remained stable and increased, rising by 0.9 percentage points year-on-year to 32.90%; net profit margin increased by 1.7 percentage points year-on-year to 8.65%; management expense ratio remained stable at 7.20%, a decrease compared to last year; sales expense ratio slightly increased by 0.59 percentage points year-on-year to 13.27%; the income tax rate for 2025 returned to normal, with an overall tax rate of about 11% in the first half of the year, roughly the same as before; specifically, among the sub-sectors, the impact of the income tax rate was most significant in publishing (from 25% to 2%) and digital media (from 17% to -28%); 3) In terms of sub-sectors, the gaming and film industries achieved high growth in net profit attributable to the parent company, while digital media and television broadcasting saw significant declines. Q2 2025 Performance Continues the Upward Trend from Q1 In Q2 2025, A-share media sector listed companies achieved total operating revenue of 129.1 billion yuan and net profit attributable to the parent company of 10.7 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth of 2.59% and 19.53%, respectively. The net profit attributable to the parent company significantly turned positive after experiencing a continuous decline for four consecutive quarters since Q1 2024; revenue also showed a mild upward turning point after continuous decline since Q3 2024; this is mainly due to the significant improvement in net profit year-on-year in the gaming sector driven by new games, and the net profit in the publishing industry turning positive year-on-year after the continuation of income tax benefits; 2) Gross profit margin remained stable and increased, rising by 0.62 percentage points year-on-year to 32.49%; net profit margin increased by 1.35 percentage points year-on-year to 8.44%; management expense ratio remained stable at 7.10%, roughly the same as last year; sales expense ratio increased by 0.91 percentage points year-on-year to 13.45%; 3) In terms of growth rates, gaming and publishing achieved positive growth, with year-on-year increases of 104.47% and 5.66%, respectively, while other industries experienced varying degrees of decline year-on-year Sub-industry performance: The gaming industry achieves high growth, focus on the potential bottom reversal in the film and television sector In Q2 2025, A-share listed companies in the media and gaming sector achieved a total operating revenue of 27.7 billion yuan and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.6 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth of 22.40% and 104.47%, respectively; the growth rate of net profit attributable to shareholders turned positive and accelerated upward since Q1 2025; revenue also continued to show an upward turning point; this is mainly due to the excellent performance of new products from some listed companies (such as Century Huatong, etc.); from a trend perspective, leading companies in the gaming industry have the potential for continuous performance and valuation upgrades driven by new products, with a focus on the performance of new gaming products; 2) Affected by the cooling of the Q2 box office market, A-share listed companies in the film and television cinema sector achieved a total operating revenue of 5.57 billion yuan and a net profit attributable to shareholders of -0.592 billion yuan in Q2 2025, representing year-on-year declines of 21.7% and 70.3%, respectively; the National Radio and Television Administration issued and implemented "Several Measures to Further Enrich TV Screen Content and Promote the Supply of Broadcasting and Television Content," which includes 21 reform measures such as "removing the 40-episode limit," "not strictly limiting the number of costume dramas," "focusing on the production of high-quality documentaries," and "strongly supporting high-quality excellent animated films"; this is expected to drive continuous improvement on the content supply side, thereby gradually boosting demand and potentially reversing the bottom of the film and television content industry. Risk Warning: Performance below expectations, technological advancements below expectations, regulatory policy risks, etc