6 Major Indicators to Assess Resident Market Participation: What is the Temperature?

Report Summary Maintaining previous key judgments, the market has established a "bull market mentality." Once a trend is formed, it is difficult to reverse in the short term, and one should not easily use the experiences of a volatile or bear market as signals, but rather stick to the main industry line. The bull market has been unfolding for nearly three months. How do we assess the degree of resident participation in this bull market? Is it just the beginning, or has it already reached a midpoint or overheating? The market has transitioned from bear to bull, and the stock market's attractiveness to residents can be divided into two stages: "watching" and "entering." First, in a bear market, the market temperature cools down, while in a bull market, the volume and price warm up. Investors can observe three "sentiment indicators" during the "watching" stage: ① The search volume for keywords like "bull market" and "stocks" on the internet; ② The download volume of stock trading apps; ③ The number of new accounts opened at securities companies; Next, transitioning from "watching" to "entering," in addition to the volume and price of stock indices, we can also observe three main "funding indicators": ④ Changes in resident deposits or the volume of funds transferred between banks and securities; ⑤ Residents entering the market through leveraged funds, i.e., margin buying; ⑥ Residents entering the market through funds, including fixed income +, actively managed equities, ETFs, etc. First, from the three "sentiment indicators," mid to late August marked a watershed moment for the rise in enthusiasm this round: From the perspective of internet search volume, new account openings, and stock trading app downloads, the sentiment elevation phase for residents entering the market occurred in mid-August, corresponding to approximately 3,750 points on the Shanghai Composite Index, with market turnover around 25 trillion. This indicates that after the index surpassed last October's high and reached a nearly 10-year high, it welcomed a rapid gathering of market sentiment. The number of new personal accounts opened in August approached the levels seen during the spring frenzy this year (DeepSeek period), but was less than half of last year's "924" period, about one-third of the 2015 bull market peak, indicating that the climb in resident sentiment is still in its early stages. Secondly, from the three "funding indicators," each bull market sees residents favor different channels for entering the market, but overall, while the funding volume has significantly increased since August, it has not yet reached the peaks seen in past bull markets. Resident deposits: In the three bull market phases of 2013-2015, 2016-2017, and 2020-2021, the growth rate of resident demand deposits declined, while this round has not shown significant decline, indicating that "deposits have not yet moved significantly." Summing up several typical channels for residents entering the market: ① Margin trading; ② Newly issued funds: including actively managed equities, passively managed equities, fixed income + funds; ③ Existing fund subscriptions and redemptions: including fixed income + funds and actively managed equity funds; ④ Net inflow of non-broad-based equity ETFs In July, the net inflow of funds was approximately 223.1 billion yuan, and in August, the net inflow scale was about 405.8 billion yuan. In comparison, this is significantly lower than the 557.7 billion yuan in July 2020 and 569.9 billion yuan in April 2015; moreover, looking at the market trends from 2014-15 and 2020-21, after the peak monthly inflow of various funds entering the market, the subsequent net inflow remained at a high level, and the index continued to rise. If we only compare leveraged funds, the net inflow of financing in August was 270 billion yuan, which is not considered low in the historical bull market context: the monthly flow in August exceeded that of 2020-21 and last year's 92.4 billion, but has not yet reached the levels of 2014-15. From the perspective of fund entry channels, in 2020-21, residents mainly entered the stock market through active equity funds, while this round of residents' risk preference is still in a gradual transition process, shifting from "non-rights" to "partially rights," so at this stage, the main funds seeing significant scale are "fixed income +” and “ETF.” In August, various types of funds had a net inflow of approximately 130 billion yuan. In comparison, the scale of funds entering the stock market through various types of funds at the beginning of 2021 was about 380 billion yuan, approximately 320 billion yuan in July 2020, and about 270 billion yuan in May 2015. Moreover, during the aforementioned periods, there were several consecutive months of large inflows, indicating that the current volume of residents entering the market through various funds may still be in the early stages of a historical bull market (levels of March-April 2020 and March 2015). Finally, from the perspective of the incremental funds attracted by each bull market's main line, some investors are concerned whether this round of residents is mainly flowing in through ETFs, replacing subscriptions for active products? We examined the recent incremental scale of ETFs in various growth industries, and compared to the active equity funds that surged into the Moutai index and Ning combination in 2020-21, there is also a significant gap. In comparison to the bull market in 2020-21, investment in sectors such as liquor, semiconductors, new energy, military industry, and pharmaceuticals was all the rage, with new and existing net subscriptions contributing incremental funds: in Q1 2021, the net inflow of food and beverage funds was approximately 190 billion, in Q3 2021, the net inflow of new energy funds was about 100 billion, and in Q1 2022, the net inflow of pharmaceutical funds was around 70 billion. In contrast, the current technology and innovative drug market is booming, but since August 2025, the overall technology ETF has still been experiencing net outflows, and the newly issued active equity funds are not significant Among them, the net inflow of non-broad-based sector ETFs is approximately 6.6 billion (including pharmaceuticals, new energy, robotics, innovative drugs, etc.), while the net outflow of TMT ETFs (non-broad-based) is 25 billion, and the net outflow of broad-based TMT ETFs is about 76.9 billion (with the Science and Technology Innovation 50 ETF seeing a net outflow of 62 billion). In terms of investment conclusions, maintain a bullish mindset and stick to the main industry line. In our weekly report last week, "How to Distinguish Whether the Main Line is Adjusting or Ending? 20250914," we proposed the moving average deviation indicator to measure the strength of the main line market trend. We adjusted the indicator to ln(close)-ln(ema20), as the logarithmic difference results are more stable, and the values approximately represent the deviation percentage. Based on historical experience of the main line from 2012 to present, the reference thresholds for entry and exit are: do not chase when the deviation is too high (>25%) during entry, chase when the deviation is moderate (5%-25%), no need to worry when stopping loss above the moving average, and it is recommended to hold when just breaking below the moving average (deviation between -5% and 0%), while a significant break below the moving average suggests exiting (deviation < -5%). Currently, the average deviation for optical modules, PCBs, innovative drugs, and science and technology chips are 12.0%, 10.0%, -2.2%, and 7.7%, respectively. The main line trend remains mostly healthy, with only innovative drugs needing attention to whether the subsequent trend will weaken. Report Body As the bull market has unfolded for nearly three months, there has been a noticeable increase in attention from emotions to funds and various types of participants towards the equity market. How do we assess the degree of resident participation in this bull market? Is it just the beginning, or has it already reached a midpoint or overheating? This issue focuses on this topic: (1) A transition from bear to bull, the stock market's attractiveness to residents is divided into two stages: "watching" and "entering" In a bear market, market temperature cools, while in a bull market, volume and price warm up, prompting various types of investors to refocus on equities. During the "watching" stage, we can observe the [sentiment indicators]: ① Internet search volume for keywords like "bull market" and "stocks" ② Download volume of stock trading tools apps ③ Number of new accounts opened at securities companies Next, from "watching" to officially "entering," in addition to the volume and price of stock indices, we can also observe the main [fund indicators]: ④ Changes in resident deposits or the amount of funds transferred between banks and securities ⑤ Residents entering the market through leveraged funds, i.e., the amount of financing purchases ⑥ Residents entering the market through various funds, including fixed income +, active equity, ETFs, etc. Other indicators such as resident bank-securities transfers and small purchase amounts can also assist in judgment. Of course, it is difficult to further distinguish between residents and institutions in the various channels of fund inflows into the stock market, but the flow and speed of various funds can still effectively observe the extent of resident participation in this round. (II) From various [sentiment indicators], mid to late August is the watershed for the rise in this round of enthusiasm 1. The sentiment elevation phase of resident participation in the market occurred in mid-August, corresponding to the Shanghai Composite Index at about 3750 points, with market turnover at about 25 trillion yuan. This means that after the index surpassed last October's high and reached nearly a 10-year high, it welcomed a rapid gathering of market popularity; From the perspective of new securities accounts: The number of new resident accounts in August was close to the level of this spring's excitement (DeepSeek period), but less than half of last year's "924", about one-third of the 2015 bull market peak, indicating that the current resident sentiment climb is still in its early stages. Specific indicators are as follows—— (1) Internet search popularity: Generally elevated since mid-August From Baidu's search index, the search popularity for this round of "bull market" began to rise in mid-August and peaked in late August, but the atmosphere cannot be considered overly heated. According to Baidu's search index, the search popularity for this round of "bull market" began to rise in the second week of August, peaking in the third week of August, but in terms of sentiment levels, this peak is far from that of October 2024, February 2021, July 2020, February 2019, June 2015, and December 2014. From Douyin and Toutiao's search indices, a consistent conclusion can be observed. According to Douyin and Toutiao's search indices, the search popularity for this round of "bull market" also began to rise in mid-August, peaking on August 22-23, but in terms of sentiment levels, this peak is still significantly distant from the peak in October 2024, and the atmosphere cannot be considered overly heated. (In addition, WeChat index and Weibo index also have similar conclusions, which are not elaborated here for brevity.) (2) Resident stock trading tools: Increased volume in August compared to July, but the peak is not high From the Shanghai Stock Exchange's account opening situation, new accounts in August showed a significant recovery, but there is still a considerable distance from historical highs. Since May 2025, the number of new accounts for A-shares on the Shanghai Stock Exchange has rebounded for three consecutive months, reaching 2.65 million in August 2025, reflecting an increasing participation of residents in the stock market, basically reaching the level before and after this year's Spring Festival; However, compared to the peaks in periods such as October 2024 and April 2015, there is still a considerable distance to go. From the perspective of typical stock trading app downloads, the current round of resident participation also increased since mid to late August, but the peak height is far less than historical highs. According to Qimai data, the download volumes of Dongfang Caifu and Tonghuashun on the iPhone platform in China have also risen since August 10, reaching a peak on August 27. However, compared to historical peaks in October 2024, July 2020, and February 2019, this round's peak is still quite distant. (3) From various types of [funding indicators], although the channels for residents to enter the market differ each time, overall, the current round of funding has not yet reached its peak. First, due to the different backgrounds of each bull market, the channels for residents to enter the market vary: In 2014-2015, it mainly relied on leveraged funds, various financial innovation tools, and a loose financing environment, driving incremental funds to enter the market in the form of leverage; In 2020-2021, it mainly relied on actively managed equity funds, with the Maotai index and Ning combination representing the market's main line, foreign capital resonating with the aesthetics of actively managed public funds, and residents entering the market through actively managed equity funds, further boosting the performance of blue-chip stocks and sector stocks; In 2025, the current round of market activity, based on current tracking, shows that significant changes in the funding landscape are mainly concentrated in leveraged funds, ETFs, and fixed income +, while the inflow of actively managed equity funds is not yet evident. Secondly, from the perspective of the current inflow of incremental funds, especially the participation of resident sector funds, the current funding inflow situation is as follows: From the marginal changes in resident deposits: In previous bull markets, the growth rate of resident deposits declined, but this round has not shown significant signs of decline. Based on the growth rates of resident deposits and demand deposits, in the past two bull market periods, there were significant signs of a year-on-year decline in demand deposits, but this round has not seen a substantial drop in the growth rate of resident deposits. From the total inflow of funds from major channels, the net inflow in August was about 410 billion yuan, while the historical peak of net inflow in a bull market month was around 560-570 billion yuan. Summing up several typical main channels for residents to enter the market: ① financing accounts; ② newly issued funds: including actively managed equity, passively managed equity, and fixed income + funds; ③ existing fund subscriptions and redemptions: including fixed income + funds and actively managed equity funds; ④ net inflow of non-broad-based equity ETFs. Overall, the net inflow of the aforementioned funds in July was about 223.1 billion yuan, and the net inflow scale in August was about 405.8 billion yuan. In contrast, this is significantly lower than the 557.7 billion yuan in July 2020 and 569.9 billion yuan in April 2015; moreover, looking at the market activities in 2014-2015 and 2020-2021, after the monthly peak of various funds entering the market, the subsequent net inflow remained at a high level, and the index continued to rise Among them, if we only compare leveraged funds, the net inflow of financing in August was 270 billion yuan, which is indeed not low compared to historical bull markets. From the perspective of monthly net inflow of financing, the current inflow pace exceeds that of 2020-2021 and the peak in 2024, but is still not as high as that of 2014-2015. The monthly net inflow of financing in August 2025 exceeded 270 billion yuan, close to the monthly market entry scale of last October, and has surpassed the peak of 2020-2021 (about 240 billion yuan), but is still away from the peak of 2014-2015 (about 330-340 billion yuan). In addition to leveraged funds, from the perspective of fund channels, the last round of [active equity funds] vs. this round of [ETFs and fixed income +]. Considering the "quick in and out" nature of leveraged funds, excluding the incremental brought by financing, we can also look at the flow rate of fund channels alone. In this round, residents mainly entered the stock market through active equity funds in 2020-2021, while their risk appetite is still gradually transitioning from "non-equity" to "partially equity," so the main scales that can be seen at this stage are "fixed income +" and "ETFs." In August, the net inflow of various types of funds was about 130 billion yuan—of which, non-broad-based ETFs had a net inflow of 67.6 billion (broad-based ETFs are not included due to regulatory fund impacts), newly issued active equity funds had 17 billion, and newly issued fixed income + funds had 11.7 billion (this part has about a 10-20% allocation to equity positions, calculated at 20% contributing about 2.3 billion incremental). In comparison, the scale of funds entering the stock market through various types of funds at the beginning of 2021 was about 380 billion yuan, about 320 billion yuan in July 2020, and about 270 billion yuan in May 2015, and the above periods all maintained a continuous large inflow for several months. In comparison, the current volume of residents entering the market through various funds may still be in the early stage of historical bull markets (levels of March-April 2020, March 2015). Finally, focusing on various tracks, some investors are concerned whether this round of residents mainly flowed in through ETFs, replacing subscriptions for active products? We examine the scale of ETFs pouring into various growth industries this round, and compared to the active equity funds that flowed into the Moutai index and Ning combination in 2020-2021, it also has not reached a peak. In comparison to the bull market in 2020-2021, during that time, investments in tracks such as liquor, semiconductors, new energy, military industry, and pharmaceuticals were all the rage. In addition to the popularity of newly issued funds, the net subscriptions of existing funds also contributed a large amount of increment: in Q1 2021, the net inflow of food and beverage funds was about 190 billion in a single quarter, and in Q3 2021, the net inflow of new energy funds was about 100 billion in a single quarter In Q1 2022, the net inflow in the pharmaceutical sector was approximately 70 billion. Correspondingly, the current market for sectors such as technology and new energy is thriving, but since August 2025, sector ETFs have overall experienced net outflows, and new issuances are not significant. Excluding the impact of technology broad-based ETFs, sector ETFs had a net inflow of about 6.6 billion, while technology broad-based ETFs had a net outflow of about 76.9 billion (with the Science and Technology Innovation 50 ETF experiencing a net outflow of 62 billion). (IV) Maintain a Bull Market Mindset and Stick to the Main Industry Line Finally, in last week's weekly report "How to Distinguish Whether the Main Line is Adjusting or Ending? 20250914," we proposed the moving average deviation indicator to measure the strength of the main line market trend: moving average deviation = In(Close) - In(ema20). The logarithmic difference result is more stable, and the value approximately represents the deviation percentage. The reference thresholds for entry and exit are as follows: do not chase when the deviation is too high (>25%) during entry, chase when the deviation is moderate (5%-25%), no need to worry when stopping loss above the moving average, and it is recommended to hold when just breaking below the moving average (deviation between -5% and 0%), while a significant break below the moving average suggests exiting (deviation < -5%). Currently, the average deviation for optical modules, PCBs, innovative drugs, and science and technology chips are 12.0%, 10.0%, -2.2%, and 7.7%, respectively. The main line trends mostly remain healthy, with only innovative drugs needing attention to whether the subsequent trend will weaken. Authors of this article: Liu Chenming, Zheng Kai, Yang Qingyuan, Source: Chenming's Strategic Deep Thinking, Original Title: "[GF Strategy] 6 Major Indicators to See Residents Entering the Market: What is the Temperature?" Risk Warning and Disclaimer The market has risks, and investment requires caution. This article does not constitute personal investment advice and does not take into account the specific investment goals, financial conditions, or needs of individual users. Users should consider whether any opinions, views, or conclusions in this article are suitable for their specific circumstances. Investing based on this is at one's own risk