Donghai Securities: This year, the supply and demand for second and third generation refrigerants will still be tight, and the refrigerant industry is expected to maintain high prosperity

According to the Zhitong Finance APP, Donghai Securities released a research report stating that the quota for second-generation refrigerants will be reduced in 2025, while the total production quota for third-generation refrigerants will remain at baseline levels, leading to a continued tightening of the supply-demand relationship for second and third-generation refrigerants. Since 2025, refrigerant prices have steadily risen, with prices continuing to increase in August and September. According to Baichuan Yinfeng data, as of September 19, 2025, the prices of third-generation refrigerants R32, R134a, and R125 have increased by 44.19%, 22.35%, and 8.33% respectively this year. In the first half of 2025, the net profit attributable to the parent company of refrigerant producers ZJJH (600160.SH), Sanmei (603379.SH), and Yonghe (605020.SH) increased by 145.84%, 159.22%, and 140.82% year-on-year respectively. The refrigerant industry is expected to maintain high prosperity, and the profitability of related production enterprises is likely to continue to improve. The main points of Donghai Securities are as follows: In August 2025, the prices of third-generation refrigerants rose, while PVDF prices fell As of August 29, 2025, according to Baichuan Yinfeng data, the prices of third-generation refrigerants R32, R125, and R134a were 60,000 yuan/ton, 45,500 yuan/ton, and 51,500 yuan/ton respectively, increasing by 9.09%, 0.00%, and 3.00% compared to the end of July. As of August 29, 2025, the price of R22 was 35,500 yuan/ton, up 1.43% from the previous month and up 18.33% from the same period last year; the price difference was 27,166.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.21% from the end of last month. PVDF prices fell; as of August 29, 2025, the prices of PTFE suspension medium particle, dispersion emulsion, and dispersion resin in China were 37,000 yuan/ton, 28,000 yuan/ton, and 40,000 yuan/ton respectively; the prices of PVDF granules, powders, and lithium battery grades were 55,000 yuan/ton, 39,000 yuan/ton, and 50,000 yuan/ton respectively; HFP price was 33,500 yuan/ton. In September, domestic air conditioning production fell year-on-year, and production in October and November is expected to continue to decline; R32 export volume has increased over the past year According to data from the Industry Online, the total production of household air conditioners in China from September to November 2025 was 10.75 million units, 10.88 million units, and 12.20 million units respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of -11.98%, -22.60%, and -19.70%. According to Baichuan Yinfeng data, since June 2024, the export volume of R32 has shown an upward trend compared to previous years. This is driven by increased overseas demand and restocking, as well as the rise in refrigerant export volume due to the increased overseas production capacity of domestic air conditioning companies. Industry News Haohua Technology and Sanmei released their semi-annual reports. Haohua Technology achieved operating income of 7.76 billion yuan in the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of 19.45%; net profit was 725 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 29.68%. Sanmei achieved operating income of 2.83 billion yuan in the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of 38.58%; net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company was 995 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 159.22%; net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was 986 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 163.61% Risk Warning: Risks of changes in refrigerant quota policies; risks of changes in raw material prices; risks of demand falling short of expectations