According to the Zhitong Finance APP, Tianfeng Securities released a research report stating that recently, the Democratic Republic of Congo's Strategic Mineral Market Regulatory and Management Bureau announced the latest cobalt export policy. In the short term, this may have a certain impact on market expectations and the pace of inventory destocking. The quota is only 96,600 tons, and after deducting 9,600 tons for the &#34;strategic quota,&#34; the actual basic quota available for ordinary exports is only 87,000 tons. This quota level may pull the medium- to long-term supply-demand balance of cobalt back to tight balance or even shortage. Most importantly, the uncertainty of the subsequent indicator allocation in the Democratic Republic of Congo, which has been emphasized, and the difficulty of relying on Indonesia's MHP to provide a large amount of incremental supply in the short term. From a medium- to long-term perspective, the price center of cobalt is expected to rise, and under the solidification of long-term logic, long-duration assets on the equity side may face revaluation.
<h2>The main points of Tianfeng Securities are as follows:</h2>
Event: On September 20, the Democratic Republic of Congo's Strategic Mineral Market Regulatory and Management Bureau (ARECOMS) announced the latest cobalt export policy, including the extension of the export suspension period to October 15, 2025, and the subsequent quota system.
Temporary export control extension: The suspension period is extended to October 15, 2025.
Implementation of the quota system: Starting from October 16, the conditions for obtaining quotas and their allocation methods will be clearly specified in a resolution; this resolution will notify cobalt market participants based on the overall quantity mentioned below. This resolution will also establish new export terms, including regulatory fees, a prepayment system for national payments due, and new export procedures. Specific time periods:
October 16 to December 31, 2025: The maximum export authorization during this period is 18,125 tons, with 3,625 tons allowed for export in October, and 7,250 tons allowed for export in both November and December.
2026: The maximum annual export authorization is 96,600 tons, consisting of 87,000 tons of &#34;basic quota&#34; and 9,600 tons of &#34;strategic quota.&#34; ① Basic quota: The monthly quota is 7,250 tons, and the allocation of export quotas will be notified to enterprises as early as possible, based on the historical export volume of each enterprise, except for EGC and Lubumbashi Tailings Company (STL). ② Strategic quota: Strategic quotas will be allocated to ARECOMS and are specifically used for projects of national strategic importance. The upper limit for the 2026 strategic quota is 9,600 tons, and ARECOMS will have complete decision-making power over this allocation. Any unused quota will be automatically reallocated to ARECOMS's strategic quota. In the event of significant imbalances in the cobalt market, the above quota numbers will be adjusted quarterly.
2027: The same as 2026. ARECOMS reserves the right to adjust the quantities based on the development of the cobalt market from now until the end of 2026 and the prospects for processing cobalt hydroxide into higher value-added products.
Right to purchase cobalt inventory: ARECOMS reserves the right to organize the purchase of cobalt inventory exceeding any company's quarterly quota allocation
ARECOMS reserves the right to revoke any initial quotas allocated by the company: a. To process tailings and/or concentrates from third parties or manual sources, unless STL and EGC are authorized to process such products according to their export quotas; b. Failure to comply with applicable laws and regulations.
What is the outlook for the market?
In the short term, the temporary export control has been extended to October 15, which may have some impact on market expectations and inventory destocking pace. However, in the medium to long term, the long logic has been further strengthened, mainly reflected in the following points:
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The quota amount is only 96,600 tons (last year, the Democratic Republic of the Congo exported nearly 220,000 tons, and the quota has decreased by 56% compared to last year's export volume), and after deducting the &#34;strategic quota&#34; of 9,600 tons, the actual basic quota available for ordinary exports is only 87,000 tons. This quota level may pull the medium to long-term supply-demand balance of cobalt back to tight balance or even shortage.
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The shipping schedule issue still tests the current inventory. The current industry chain inventory is about 4 months, which means that the end of the extension (10.15) + shipping 2-3 months will just about consume the inventory. Importantly, the 4-month inventory is the entire industry chain inventory; if any link stores a little more, it will exacerbate the overall supply tightness of the industry chain.
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Most importantly, the uncertainty of the subsequent indicator allocation in the Democratic Republic of the Congo has been emphasized, and it is difficult to rely on Indonesia's MHP to provide a large amount of incremental supply in the short term (with a production of 32,000 tons in 2024, even a significant increase cannot make up for the gap caused by the Congo quota policy, and the increment needs nickel price support).
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Based on this, the price center of cobalt is expected to rise from a medium to long-term perspective, and under the solidification of the long logic, long-term assets on the equity side may face revaluation.
Investment Suggestions
In the short term, it is recommended to pay attention to targets whose supply is not affected by the Democratic Republic of the Congo's policies, such as Huayou Cobalt (603799.SH) and Liqin Resources (02245), which have high-quality nickel-cobalt resources in Indonesia. Looking ahead, the absolute volume of the Democratic Republic of the Congo in global cobalt supply is difficult to replace. After the formal implementation of the subsequent quota system, companies with rich resource reserves and leading production capacity will have more advantages and are expected to achieve price superiority over volume (low prices have limited profit margins, and quotas are realized by exchanging price for volume). It is recommended to pay attention to CMOC and flexible targets such as Tengyuan Cobalt (301219.SZ) and Hanrui Cobalt (300618.SZ).
Risk Warning
Policy uncertainty risk, geopolitical and trade risks, demand below expectations risk

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Tianfeng Securities released a research report indicating that the cobalt export policy recently issued by the Regulatory and Management Bureau of Strategic Minerals in the Democratic Republic of the Congo will affect market expectations and inventory destocking. The quota amount is 96,600 tons, and after deducting the strategic quota of 9,600 tons, the actual basic quota available for ordinary exports is 87,000 tons, which may lead to a tight balance or shortage in supply and demand in the medium to long term. The policy includes extending the export suspension period until October 15, 2025, and implementing a quota system starting October 16, which is expected to raise the cobalt price center

Tianfeng Securities: The implementation of the quota policy in the Democratic Republic of the Congo solidifies the long-term logic of cobalt