According to the Zhitong Finance APP, Guojin Securities released a research report stating that from January to October 2025, the cumulative year-on-year forecast for the pre-production of lithium carbonate/batteries/cathodes/anodes/membranes/electrolytes is expected to reach 27% to 58%. Among them, the year-on-year growth for batteries, anodes, and electrolytes in October alone exceeds 40%. The pre-production in each link has been slightly adjusted upward, mainly due to the upcoming peak season, with orders from manufacturers generally increasing and demand continuing to expand. Currently in the peak season, lithium battery material prices are rising, with slight increases in battery cells, electrolytes, and cathodes, while lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide have seen monthly increases of 20%, and iron lithium materials are declining. In August, the prices of major materials such as resource products, cathodes, anodes, and electrolytes continued to rise due to demand, while the price of iron lithium materials slightly decreased due to adjustments in the supply chain structure of downstream battery cell manufacturers.
<h2>The main viewpoints of Guojin Securities are as follows:</h2>
Important changes in the industry this month
1) Lithium batteries: On September 22, the price of lithium carbonate was 78,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 20% from last month; the price of lithium hydroxide was 71,000 yuan/ton, also up 20% from last month.
2) Complete vehicles: In August, the wholesale sales of domestic new energy passenger vehicles reached 1.18 million units, with a year-on-year/month-on-month increase of 22%/10%; from January to August, the cumulative wholesale reached 8.36 million units, a year-on-year increase of 35%.
Market Review
Since September 2025, the lithium battery sector has been relatively active, with most links outperforming the CSI 300 and SSE 50 indices. The lithium battery copper foil sector led the gains, with an increase of 43%; only the low-altitude economy showed a downward trend, with a decrease of -1%. This month, most links in the lithium battery-related sectors continued to see monthly transaction value growth, mainly due to active trading in sectors such as energy storage and humanoid robots. More than half of the lithium battery-related sectors have a 3-year historical valuation percentile at a high level, indicating high market attention to the lithium battery sector.
Industry Insights this Month
New Energy Vehicles: August sales surged, with China and Europe continuing to lead globally, and U.S. demand rebounding. In August, the sales of new energy vehicles in China/ten European countries/the U.S. were 1.18 million/200,000/170,000 units, with year-on-year increases of 22%/42%/15%, and penetration rates of 52%/32%/11%. The cumulative year-on-year growth rate of sales in China exceeded expectations, mainly due to policy support and a concentrated launch of new vehicles before the &#34;Golden September and Silver October.&#34; Sales in the ten European countries continued to exceed expectations year-on-year in August, but the month-on-month growth rate showed an overall decline except for Norway and Sweden; the decline in August sales was mainly due to the holiday season in Europe, leading to a slowdown in car sales. U.S. sales rebounded in August, mainly due to consumers rushing to purchase before the subsidy cancellation, combined with dealers reducing inventory through promotions or discounts, which temporarily boosted market demand.
Energy Storage: Domestic energy storage installations steadily rebounded in August, while the U.S. remained relatively stable. In August, domestic installations reached 12.6 GWh, with year-on-year/month-on-month increases of 58%/63%; from January to August, the cumulative total was 64.1 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 36%. In August, U.S. energy storage connected to the grid was 3.5 GWh, with year-on-year/month-on-month changes of +47%/-28%; from January to August, the cumulative total was 25.1 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 46%. At the beginning of August, the U.S. signed a revised ITC bill, which overall marginally benefited the economics of energy storage, leading to early grid connections for projects, although the actual grid connection volume in August showed a decline. According to ABIA, in August, the sales of energy storage and other batteries in China were 35.6 GWh, with year-on-year/month-on-month changes of +49.0%/-1.4%;
From January to August, cumulative sales reached 245.2 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 87.6%, maintaining a high level of prosperity.
Lithium battery production scheduling: In October, during the peak season, the month-on-month change is expected to be 3% to 9%, with a year-on-year growth of 21% to 50%. From January to October 2025, the pre-scheduled production of lithium carbonate/batteries/cathodes/anodes/membranes/electrolytes is expected to achieve a year-on-year increase of 27% to 58%, with single-month October battery, anode, and electrolyte year-on-year growth exceeding 40%; production scheduling in each link has been slightly adjusted upward, mainly due to the upcoming peak season, with orders from manufacturers generally increasing and demand continuing to expand.
Lithium battery prices: Currently in the peak season, lithium battery material prices are rising, with slight increases in cell, electrolyte, and cathode prices, while lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide have seen monthly increases of 20%, and iron-lithium materials are declining. This month, the prices of major materials such as resource products, cathodes, anodes, and electrolytes have generally continued to rise due to demand, while the price of iron-lithium materials has slightly decreased due to supply chain adjustments by downstream cell manufacturers.
New technology: Starting from the second half of 2025, solid-state batteries and composite current collectors will enter a critical window for engineering and industrialization. In 2025, the pilot production line and equipment orders for automotive-grade all-solid-state batteries will significantly increase, with demonstration vehicle installation time converging to 2026-2027, and the scale of all-solid-state vehicle installations expected to rise from thousands to tens of thousands by 2027, initiating GWh demand. In addition, industry feedback indicates that composite current collectors will enter preparation for mass production in the third quarter of 2025, with potential large-scale production starting in the fourth quarter of 2025, focusing on opportunities for current collector companies.
Investment recommendations
In 2025, a new round of lithium battery expansion combined with breakthroughs in solid-state technology will drive accelerated industry Capex, with diverse prosperity across the industrial chain. Key recommendations include leading companies in segmented tracks and solid-state new technology companies: CATL (300750.SZ, 03750), EVE Energy (300014.SZ), KDL (002850.SZ), and Xiamen Tungsten (688778.SH), among others.
Risk warnings
Demand for new energy vehicles may fall short of expectations, demand for the energy storage market may be lower than expected, and risks from policy sanctions in Europe and the United States, etc

300750

002850

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Guotai Junan Securities released a research report indicating that seasonal demand has driven up the prices of lithium battery materials, with lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide seeing a monthly increase of 20%. It is expected that from January to October 2025, the production of lithium battery-related products will increase by 27%-58% year-on-year. In August, the sales of new energy vehicles saw significant growth, with domestic wholesale sales reaching 1.18 million units, a year-on-year increase of 22%. The lithium battery sector has been active, with overall trading volume continuing to grow and high market attention

Guotai Junan Securities: Seasonal demand rises, price increases in the lithium battery sector gradually become apparent