Cathay Securities and Haitong Securities: The penetration rate of new energy heavy trucks in China has further increased, and the domestic and overseas electric heavy truck market is entering a fast growth lane

According to the Zhitong Finance APP, Guotai Junan has released a research report stating that driven by the vehicle replacement policy, China's electric heavy truck market has achieved rapid growth, with penetration rates continuously increasing. In the first three quarters, the cumulative sales of new energy heavy trucks in China reached 137,800 units, a year-on-year increase of 184%, exceeding the total sales level for the entire year of 2024, with the penetration rate further rising to 24.21%. Meanwhile, although the electrification level of heavy trucks in Europe and the United States is relatively low at this stage, the growth momentum has begun to emerge driven by stricter carbon emission assessments and supportive subsidy policies. As the electric heavy truck market experiences explosive growth, it will bring vast incremental space for the lithium battery industry, and power battery and key materials companies are expected to benefit from it.

Guotai Junan's main viewpoints are as follows:

China: Driven by the vehicle replacement policy, the new energy heavy truck market enters a fast growth lane

With the dual push of the vehicle replacement policy and the decline in terminal prices, China's new energy heavy truck market is expected to achieve rapid growth in 2024, with sales reaching 82,100 units, a significant year-on-year increase of 140%; the penetration rate will reach 13.61%, doubling year-on-year. Since 2025, as the vehicle replacement policy is further strengthened, market demand continues to rise. In the first three quarters, the cumulative sales of new energy heavy trucks in China reached 137,800 units, a year-on-year increase of 184%, exceeding the total sales level for the entire year of 2024, with the penetration rate further rising to 24.21%. As the advantages of new energy heavy trucks in terms of economy and environmental protection become increasingly prominent, it is expected that the penetration rate will increase to 35% in 2026 and is likely to exceed 50% in 2027.

Europe: Carbon emission assessments drive the electrification process of the heavy truck market

Since 2023, driven by stricter carbon emission assessments, the implementation of policies such as AFIR, and the increase in the supply of new models, the electrification process of the European heavy truck market has continued to accelerate. In 2023, sales of electric heavy trucks in Europe exceeded 3,000 units, a year-on-year increase of about three times, with a penetration rate surpassing 1%. In the first half of 2024/2025, sales of electric heavy trucks reached 4,291/2,410 units, a year-on-year increase of 35%/13%, with penetration rates rising to 1.4%/1.6%. From a regional distribution perspective, Western European countries such as Germany, France, and the Netherlands have seen rapid growth in the electric heavy truck market, while Southern and Eastern Europe still primarily rely on diesel heavy trucks.

United States: The current level of electrification of heavy trucks is relatively low

Currently, the electrification level of the heavy truck market in the United States remains low, with a penetration rate of less than 1%. However, driven by policies such as the Clean Heavy-Duty Vehicles Grant Program and tax credits, the U.S. electric heavy truck market has begun to show growth momentum. In 2024, sales of electric heavy trucks in the U.S. reached 1,103 units, a year-on-year increase of 34%, growing about four times compared to 2022.

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Infrastructure construction is below expectations; subsidy policies are below expectations