ADT (ADT): Assessing Valuation Following Raised Outlook and Strong Q3 Revenue Growth

ADT Inc. delivered higher revenue and net income for the third quarter and nine months ended September 2025, and the company slightly raised its full-year revenue guidance, highlighting ongoing confidence in its overall outlook. See our latest analysis for ADT. ADT’s momentum is showing signs of steady strength, with a year-to-date share price return of 18.48% and a 10.16% total shareholder return over the past year. Following recent buybacks, a fresh earnings beat, and a reaffirmed dividend, the latest moves reflect both management confidence and market optimism about ADT’s growth potential. If you want to see what else is capturing investors’ attention, it might be a great time to broaden your horizons and discover fast growing stocks with high insider ownership With ADT’s strong revenue growth, share buybacks, and positive analyst sentiment, the stage is set for a bullish case. However, with shares already up double digits this year, investors may question whether there is still a buying opportunity or if future growth has already been priced in. Most Popular Narrative: 13.7% Undervalued Compared to ADT's last close of $8.27, the most widely followed narrative assigns a fair value of $9.58. This suggests material upside remains if assumptions are met. Investors are focusing on the company’s evolving business model and key technological shifts as major drivers underpinning this outlook. Significant investment in AI-driven automation (customer service, monitoring, remote assistance) and the ADT+ proprietary platform is improving operational efficiency and reducing field service costs. This could expand net margins over time. Read the complete narrative. What if the bulls have unlocked ADT’s formula for future growth? The fair value call hinges on profit trends, shrinking shares, and a bold bet on margin expansion. Want to know the details? Find out which assumptions about performance and customer behavior drive this narrative’s optimistic price target. Result: Fair Value of $9.58 (UNDERVALUED) Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts. However, heavy reliance on traditional monitored security and intensifying competition from DIY smart home solutions could present challenges to ADT’s long-term growth assumptions. Find out about the key risks to this ADT narrative. Build Your Own ADT Narrative If you see the story unfolding differently or prefer diving into the data on your own terms, create a custom narrative in just a few minutes: Do it your way A great starting point for your ADT research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision. Looking for More Smart Investment Opportunities? Get ahead of the crowd and expand your investing horizons with unique ideas you might have missed. Act now so you do not miss your next great opportunity. Tap into the potential of future tech by scanning these 28 quantum computing stocks, which features companies making waves in quantum computing and innovation. Unlock steady income streams by evaluating these 16 dividend stocks with yields > 3%, where you can find standout yields above 3 percent and a history of rewarding shareholders. Ride the momentum of digital transformation with these 25 AI penny stocks and see which AI-focused companies are ahead in growth and disruption. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.