Morning Trend | Maanshan Iron continues to rise at a low level, how far can the short-term rebound supported by infrastructure go?

MaanShan Iron & Steel Company (323.HK) has recently shown a low-level consecutive rise in its stock price, gradually increasing from a stage bottom. The daily MACD has formed a golden cross, indicating a progressive bullish logic in the short term. On the market, it has continuously crossed above the 5-day and 10-day moving averages, showing a clear bullish structure. Short-term funds are accelerating inflow, mainly benefiting from the continued strengthening of national infrastructure support policies, combined with an improving steel supply-demand pattern and a continuous decline in inventory. Recently, the upstream iron ore futures prices have remained high, supporting steel costs, while large downstream projects are intensively starting, boosting steel companies' shipment volumes, making the domestic cyclical sector overall active. In addition, the overall valuation of the Hong Kong stock steel sector is relatively low, and MaanShan, as a leading state-owned enterprise listed in both A and H shares, benefits from the industry's beta market and the theme of state-owned enterprise reform. From a technical perspective, the golden cross of the 5-day and 10-day moving averages resonates, with bottom support gradually rising. If today's trading volume can continue to expand and stabilize above the moving average platform, the short-term target may look towards the pressure area above HKD 1.9. If the volume is insufficient or there is a phase of selling pressure at high levels, a pullback to the support at HKD 1.7 cannot be ruled out for consolidation. Observing the intraday trading volume and fund movements is beneficial for capturing turning points in real time. It is worth noting that short-term rebounds are mostly led by speculative funds and left-side bottom-fishing capital, and the elasticity of cyclical stocks is significantly affected by the rhythm of infrastructure investment and cost disturbances. Once macro commodity prices adjust or high-frequency signals from the policy side reverse, the steel sector as a whole may face rapid withdrawal risks. In terms of operation, the focus should be on participating in the trend in the short term, and small positions can be followed on the right side when bullish confirmation and volume support are present