Hexcel (HXL): Assessing Valuation After Recent Share Price Momentum

Hexcel (HXL) stock has been drawing interest lately, especially as investors watch the company’s recent performance and momentum. Over the past month, Hexcel shares have climbed 12%, which has sparked fresh discussion about its outlook.

See our latest analysis for Hexcel.

Momentum around Hexcel has clearly been building, with a robust 11.85% share price return over the past month in addition to a year-to-date run of nearly 12%. Over the longer term, Hexcel has rewarded shareholders with an 18.03% total return in the past year, showing a steady track record many investors look for when considering growth and resilience.

Curious what else is picking up speed in the industrials space? Now is a perfect chance to discover See the full list for free.

The key question now is whether Hexcel shares are still trading below their true value, or if recent gains mean future growth is already reflected in the price. Is there a real buying opportunity here? Or has the market already accounted for what comes next?

Most Popular Narrative: 7.4% Undervalued

Based on the most popular narrative, Hexcel’s estimated fair value of $74.57 stands above its last close of $69.09, pointing to limited but real upside potential. The fair value is built on a modest discount rate and projections that still outpace some of the market’s tempered optimism. Where does this potential come from?

Renewed share buyback activity with a recently announced $600M buyback program is viewed as a significant signal of management's confidence and commitment to shareholder returns. Strong free cash flow projections, with expectations of generating over $1B in free cash flow over the next four years, support a higher valuation and provide financial flexibility.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to know the fuel behind this potential premium? This narrative is grounded in bold profit expansion forecasts, ambitious cash flow targets, and a future profits multiple that few rivals would dare to chase. What is the wild card in Hexcel’s story, and could it drive the price higher or expose risks? Click through to see how these assumptions stack up and what’s really behind the narrative’s confidence.

Result: Fair Value of $74.57 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, ongoing supply chain disruptions or unexpected delays from key customers such as Boeing or Airbus could quickly challenge bullish assumptions and impact Hexcel's outlook.

Find out about the key risks to this Hexcel narrative.

Another View: Market Multiples Tell a Different Story

Taking a look at the current price-to-earnings ratio, Hexcel trades at 79.9x, which is noticeably higher than both the US Aerospace & Defense industry average of 38.5x and the peer average of 52.6x. The fair ratio stands at just 37.7x, suggesting the stock’s price may be running ahead of its fundamentals. Does this spell valuation risk for investors even if growth prospects are bright?

See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

Build Your Own Hexcel Narrative

If you have your own perspective or want to dive deeper into the numbers, it only takes a few minutes to craft your own take and Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Hexcel research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.