Criteo (CRTO): Reassessing Valuation After Strong Q3 Beat and Confident Analyst Outlook

Criteo (CRTO) just cleared a high bar with third quarter 2025 results coming in well ahead of expectations, a meaningful outcome for a stock that has struggled this year. See our latest analysis for Criteo. Even with the post earnings bounce, reflected in a 1 day share price return of 7.25 percent and 7 day share price return of 5.63 percent, Criteo is still working against a weak backdrop. The year to date share price return is negative 46.61 percent and the 1 year total shareholder return is negative 50 percent, suggesting sentiment is only just starting to stabilise after a tough stretch. If Criteo's latest move has you rethinking your exposure to digital advertising and data driven platforms, this could be a good moment to discover high growth tech and AI stocks. With the stock still trading at a steep discount to analyst targets despite improving execution, investors now face a key question: Is Criteo undervalued after a painful reset, or is the market already pricing in its next growth leg? Most Popular Narrative: 41.5% Undervalued With Criteo last closing at $21, the most followed narrative sees fair value closer to $35.92, implying the stock’s reset has gone too far. The rapid adoption of AI-powered ad targeting and the development of Agentic AI solutions leveraging Criteo's structured commerce data is expected to boost campaign performance and unlock new monetization channels, supporting both revenue growth and potential margin expansion as productized, automated offerings gain scale. Read the complete narrative. Want to see the math behind that upside? The narrative leans on shrinking revenues, fatter margins, and a future earnings multiple that challenges today’s pessimism. Result: Fair Value of $35.92 (UNDERVALUED) Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts. However, the narrative could unravel if AI monetization disappoints or if heavyweight rivals like Amazon and Meta squeeze Criteo’s share in retail media. Find out about the key risks to this Criteo narrative. Build Your Own Criteo Narrative If you want to challenge these assumptions or dig into the numbers yourself, you can build a complete narrative in just a few minutes: Do it your way. A great starting point for your Criteo research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision. Looking for more investment ideas? Before you move on, lock in an edge by using the Simply Wall St Screener to spot fresh, data driven opportunities that most investors are still overlooking. Capture early stage potential by scanning these 3576 penny stocks with strong financials that pair tiny market caps with surprisingly resilient fundamentals. Ride the next wave of intelligent automation by targeting these 26 AI penny stocks reshaping entire industries with scalable AI driven products. Secure better risk reward balance by focusing on these 15 dividend stocks with yields > 3% that combine meaningful income with room for long term growth. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.