SPS Commerce (SPSC) Valuation After Morgan Stanley Downgrade and Weaker Retail Growth Outlook

After Morgan Stanley cut its rating on SPS Commerce (SPSC) to Equal Weight, investors began reassessing how much near term growth is realistically left in the tank given softer retail conditions and tariff pressures. See our latest analysis for SPS Commerce. That caution has clearly filtered into sentiment, with the 1 year total shareholder return down 56.57 percent and the year to date share price return off 53.21 percent. The stock has edged up in the past month as investors reassess whether expectations have finally reset. If this downgrade has you rethinking your tech exposure, it could be a good moment to compare SPS Commerce with other high growth tech names using high growth tech and AI stocks. With the shares now trading at a sizeable discount to analyst targets despite double digit profit growth, the real question is whether SPS Commerce is quietly slipping into undervalued territory or if the market is prudently pricing in the possibility of softer growth ahead. Most Popular Narrative: 12.7% Undervalued Compared to the last close of $85.54, the most followed narrative places SPS Commerce’s fair value materially higher. It frames today’s drawdown as a potential mispricing rather than a structural reset. The accelerating digitalization of retail supply chains and rising compliance requirements are driving robust demand for SPS Commerce's cloud-based EDI and supply chain solutions, supporting sustained growth in new customer adds and recurring revenue. As the complexity of omni channel retail and need for real time, integrated supply chain analytics increases, SPS Commerce is well positioned to expand its average revenue per user (ARPU) through expanded network connections and the cross selling of high value products like analytics and revenue recovery solutions. Read the complete narrative. Want to see what justifies paying up for a mature software name? The narrative leans on rising margins, faster earnings growth and a punchy future earnings multiple. Curious how those moving parts combine into that higher fair value? Result: Fair Value of $98 (UNDERVALUED) Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts. However, persistent macro uncertainty and cautious US supplier spending could delay new deals and pressure ARPU, which would challenge the undervaluation thesis. Find out about the key risks to this SPS Commerce narrative. Build Your Own SPS Commerce Narrative If you see the story differently or want to stress test the assumptions with your own research, you can build a custom view in just minutes: Do it your way. A good starting point is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards investors are optimistic about regarding SPS Commerce. Looking for your next investing edge? Do not stop with one stock. Lock in your advantage by using Simply Wall Street’s screeners to uncover targeted opportunities before the rest of the market catches on. Capitalize on mispriced opportunities by scanning these 900 undervalued stocks based on cash flows that strong cash flow analysis suggests the market is overlooking. Position yourself at the frontier of innovation by targeting these 28 quantum computing stocks that could benefit most as real world applications accelerate. Strengthen your income stream by focusing on these 15 dividend stocks with yields > 3% that balance yield with sustainable payout potential. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.