<div id="readability-page-1"><div><ul> <li>If you have been wondering whether Mosaic is quietly turning into a value play, you are not alone. This article is going to unpack exactly what the market might be missing.</li> <li>The stock is down about 1.5% over the last week, 7.6% over the last month and 8.1% over the past year. It is still up 14.2% over five years, a mixed picture that can hide some interesting value dynamics.</li> <li>Recently, investors have been digesting headlines around fertilizer demand, shifting crop prices and the broader commodities cycle. All of these factors feed directly into Mosaic's outlook. There has also been renewed focus on how geopolitical tensions and food security policies could support longer term potash and phosphate pricing. This may help explain some of the volatility in the share price.</li> <li>Despite that noise, Mosaic currently scores a 6 out of 6 valuation score, suggesting it screens as undervalued across all our checks. Next we will walk through the different valuation approaches behind that number, before closing with an even more intuitive way to think about what the stock is really worth.</li> </ul> <p>Mosaic delivered -8.1% returns over the last year. See how this stacks up to the rest of the Chemicals industry.</p> <h3>Approach 1: Mosaic Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis</h3> <p>A Discounted Cash Flow model projects a company’s future cash flows and then discounts those projections back to today to estimate what the entire business is worth in $ right now.</p> <p>For Mosaic, the latest twelve month Free Cash Flow is slightly negative at about $141 Million, reflecting a tougher recent operating backdrop. Looking forward, analyst and model estimates have cash flows recovering strongly, with projected Free Cash Flow of roughly $699 Million by 2029. Beyond the explicit analyst horizon, Simply Wall St extends the projections using a 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity approach, gradually tapering growth to more sustainable long term levels.</p> <p>When all those future cash flows are discounted back to today, the model arrives at an intrinsic value of about $34.77 per share. Compared with the current market price, this implies Mosaic is trading at roughly a 31.7% discount, suggesting the stock is meaningfully undervalued on cash flow fundamentals.</p> <p><strong>Result: UNDERVALUED</strong></p> <p>Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests Mosaic is undervalued by 31.7%. Track this in your watchlist or portfolio, or discover 909 more undervalued stocks based on cash flows.</p> <figure><img height="476" src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.simplywall.st/company/3472af66-3e93-4720-adb3-4555b524ac34/chart/dcf?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" width="746" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.simplywall.st/company/3472af66-3e93-4720-adb3-4555b524ac34/chart/dcf"/><figcaption>MOS Discounted Cash Flow as at Dec 2025</figcaption></figure> <p>Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for Mosaic.</p> <h3>Approach 2: Mosaic Price vs Earnings</h3> <p>For profitable companies like Mosaic, the Price to Earnings (PE) ratio is a useful shorthand for how much investors are willing to pay for each dollar of current earnings. In general, faster expected growth and lower perceived risk justify a higher PE, while slower growth or higher uncertainty usually pull that multiple down.</p> <p>Mosaic currently trades on a PE of about 6.1x, which is well below both the Chemicals industry average of roughly 23.7x and the peer group average of about 13.9x. To move beyond simple comparisons, Simply Wall St estimates a proprietary Fair Ratio of 13.4x for Mosaic. This Fair Ratio is the PE that may be expected given the company’s specific earnings growth outlook, profitability, risk profile, industry positioning and market cap.</p> <p>Because the Fair Ratio is tailored to Mosaic’s fundamentals, it provides a more meaningful anchor than broad industry or peer averages, which can be skewed by very different business models or risk levels. With Mosaic trading at 6.1x versus a Fair Ratio of 13.4x, the shares appear significantly cheaper on an earnings multiple basis.</p> <p><strong>Result: UNDERVALUED</strong></p> <figure><img height="476" src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.simplywall.st/company/3472af66-3e93-4720-adb3-4555b524ac34/chart/pe-multiple-vs-industry?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" width="746" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.simplywall.st/company/3472af66-3e93-4720-adb3-4555b524ac34/chart/pe-multiple-vs-industry"/><figcaption>NYSE:MOS PE Ratio as at Dec 2025</figcaption></figure> <p>PE ratios tell one story, but what if the real opportunity lies elsewhere? Discover 1446 companies where insiders are betting big on explosive growth.</p> <h3>Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your Mosaic Narrative</h3> <p>Earlier we mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation, so let us introduce you to Narratives, a simple way to connect your view of Mosaic’s future to a clear fair value estimate. A Narrative is your story behind the numbers, where you set assumptions for revenue growth, margins and future earnings, and the platform translates that story into a financial forecast and a fair value that you can compare with today’s share price to inform your decision making. Narratives on Simply Wall St, available on the Community page used by millions of investors, are easy to create and automatically update when new information like earnings or major news is released, so your fair value view evolves with the company. For example, one Mosaic Narrative might assume strong harvests, tight fertilizer supply and expanding premium products to justify a higher fair value, while another might focus on persistent oversupply, regulatory pressure and rising input costs to support a much lower fair value, giving you a clear sense of where your own expectations sit on that spectrum.</p> <p>Do you think there's more to the story for Mosaic? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!</p> <figure><img height="476" src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.simplywall.st/company/3472af66-3e93-4720-adb3-4555b524ac34/chart/quote-price?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" width="746" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.simplywall.st/company/3472af66-3e93-4720-adb3-4555b524ac34/chart/quote-price"/><figcaption>NYSE:MOS 1-Year Stock Price Chart</figcaption></figure> <p><em> This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. <strong>We provide commentary based on historical data     and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice.</strong> It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your     financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.     Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.     Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.</em></p></div></div>

<p>The article discusses Mosaic's potential as a value play amidst recent fertilizer demand and commodity volatility. Despite recent stock declines, Mosaic is considered undervalued based on a Discounted Cash Flow analysis, showing a 31.7% discount. The Price to Earnings ratio also suggests undervaluation, trading at 6.1x compared to a Fair Ratio of 13.4x. Geopolitical tensions and food security policies may impact potash and phosphate pricing, influencing Mosaic's outlook. Investors are encouraged to explore narratives for a clearer valuation perspective.</p>

Has the Market Mispriced Mosaic After Recent Fertilizer Demand and Commodity Volatility?