Citigroup: Upcoming non-farm payroll report may release more conflicting signals

The Financial Times analysis points out that the US non-farm payrolls report, to be released next Tuesday, will include data from October and November, finally providing policymakers and investors with a more complete picture of the US labor market, ending months of partial uncertainty. Following a contentious meeting this week, the Federal Reserve lowered interest rates to a three-year low, with several officials dissenting, the debate centered on whether to prioritize addressing high inflation or a weak job market. Citigroup economists note that the upcoming jobs report may release more conflicting signals. The bank expects a loss of approximately 45,000 jobs in October, but an increase of 80,000 in November. Citigroup economists suggest this rebound may be more related to seasonally adjusted data rather than a "real improvement in worker demand." They also predict the unemployment rate will rise from 4.4% to 4.52%, while a Reuters poll of economists shows an unemployment rate of 4.4%. The Fed's own quarterly forecasts indicate a median unemployment rate of approximately 4.5% by the end of this year. (Jinshi)