<p>The Hang Seng Index opened 258 points lower this morning. Although the decline narrowed to 152 points at one point, reaching a high of 25,824 points, it ultimately failed to stay above the 20-day moving average (25,802 points). As of the noon report, it was at 25,737 points, down 238 points or 0.92%, with a transaction amount of HKD 108.2 billion. The Tech Index reported 5,537 points at noon, down 100 points or 1.79%.</p>
<h2>CICC Expects Life Insurance Industry to Re-enter Golden Period</h2>
<p>Among blue-chip stocks, Alibaba (9988) and Tencent (700) fell 2.7% and 1.5%, respectively, along with Xiaomi (1810) down 2.3%, which were the main three stocks dragging down the performance of the Hang Seng Index. In contrast, insurance stocks showed support, with AIA (1299) and Ping An (2318) both rising over 2%, and China Life (2628) also up 1.2%.</p>
<p>On the news front, the National Financial Regulatory Administration recently issued a notice on adjusting the risk factors related to insurance companies, strengthening the policy orientation to encourage long-term patient capital, boosting market sentiment. Additionally, CICC expects the life insurance industry to re-enter a golden development period by 2026, with a more positive development trend on the liability side. The investment logic in the industry will shift from &#34;seeking revaluation and repair of existing businesses&#34; back to &#34;giving growth capability valuation premiums,&#34; and it is anticipated that Ping An will lead the next round of valuation repair in the industry, with the target price for H shares raised from HKD 71 to HKD 99.4, maintaining an &#34;outperform the industry&#34; rating.</p>
<h2>Li Ning Opens First Dragon Store Globally</h2>
<p>In terms of stock price fluctuations, Li Ning (2331) showed a stronger upward trend, rising over 4.9% in half a day, making it the best-performing blue-chip stock. China Mengniu Dairy (881) and New Oriental (9901) also rose 2.8% and 2.7%, respectively. Notably, the Li Ning brand held the grand opening of its first dragon store globally with the theme &#34;Dragon Glory Unleashed&#34; yesterday (14th) in the landmark shopping area of Sanlitun Taikoo Li in Beijing, along with the official launch of the new Glory Gold Standard product series. Furthermore, Citigroup also expects Li Ning's revenue to grow 0%, 4%, and 8% year-on-year from 2025 to 2027, with net profit growing 18%, 11%, and 17% year-on-year, raising the target price from HKD 18.1 to HKD 20.6, maintaining a &#34;buy&#34; rating.</p>
<p>In addition to Li Ning, several sports goods stocks also saw upward movement, with Yue Yuen Industrial (551) rising over 6%; 361 Degrees (1361) up 3.2%; and Xtep International (1368) also up 2.4%.</p>
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<p>The market generally expects the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point this Friday (19th) and is concerned whether this will lead to a repeat of the yen liquidation crisis from last August, becoming a key factor in the direction of global stock markets. Some analysts pointed out that the likelihood of a financial crisis triggered by Japan's interest rate hike is low, and it is expected that the Hang Seng Index will remain within the range of 25,000 to 26,300 points.</p>
<h2>Jack Ma Meets with Rwandan President</h2>
<p>The Hang Seng Index opened 258 points lower this morning, reporting 25,718 points. Tech stocks generally moved downward, with Alibaba (9988) founder Jack Ma and Yahoo co-founder Jerry Yang appearing in Kigali, the capital of Rwanda, yesterday to participate in the &#34;African Business Heroes&#34; event, where they met with Rwandan President Paul Kagame; the stock opened at HKD 150.8, down 2.1%
Among other tech stocks, Tencent (700) fell 1.6%; Meituan (3690) fell 0.8%; JD.com (9618) and Xiaomi (1810) fell 0.6% and 1.5% respectively; Baidu (9888) fell more than 3%.</p>
<h2>HSBC's privatization of Hang Seng will not raise the price</h2>
<p>On the other hand, HSBC (005) announced that the proposed consideration for the privatization plan of Hang Seng (011) is HKD 155 per share, which will not be increased under any circumstances, and the voting on the proposal will take place on January 8 next year; the prices of both stocks remained relatively unchanged this morning, falling 0.8% and rising 0.1% respectively.</p>
<p>Related article: HSBC privatizes Hang Seng at HKD 155 per share, voting on January 8 next year</p>
<h2>Vanke plans to hold a bondholders meeting again on December 18</h2>
<p>In individual stock news, Vanke (2202) failed to gain creditor support for the extension plan of its domestic bond &#34;22 Vanke MTN004,&#34; leaving only about 5 working days of grace period to raise funds, with the final payment deadline around December 20, and plans to hold a second bondholders meeting on December 18. The stock opened at HKD 3.48 this morning, down 5.4%.</p>
<p>Related article: Vanke's domestic bond extension proposals failed to pass, only 5 working days left for negotiation</p>
<h2>Zeng Yongjian: Hang Seng Index will fluctuate between 25,000 and 26,300 in the short term</h2>
<p>Zeng Yongjian, vice chairman of the Hong Kong Stock Analysts Association, stated that external weakness will put pressure on Hong Kong stocks this week, while institutional investors in Hong Kong have already entered holiday mode, with funds disinterested in trading. Expectations for mainland policies have repeatedly fallen short, and it is estimated that without strong economic stimulus policies from the mainland, the Hang Seng Index will remain within the range of 25,000 to 26,300 points in the short term.</p>
<h2>It is expected not to trigger a wave of unwinding in yen carry trades</h2>
<p>Regarding market concerns about whether the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike will lead to a repeat of last August's global stock market crash, Zeng Yongjian stated that the market has already anticipated the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike. Unless this time the Bank of Japan's rate hike exceeds expectations or signals a series of rate hikes, it will not trigger a massive unwinding of yen carry trades, which would lead to a significant decline in global stock markets. He admitted, &#34;Last time was unprepared, this time the market is psychologically prepared.&#34;</p>
<p>The so-called &#34;yen carry trade&#34; refers to hedge funds borrowing low-interest yen and then exchanging it for US dollars or other currencies to trade for profit in global stock markets; if Japan raises interest rates, these hedge funds may sell stocks to cash out and then repay yen loans, which is known as unwinding.</p>
<p>Looking ahead to this week, central banks in the UK, Europe, Japan, Thailand, and Indonesia will announce their latest interest rate decisions. At the same time, the US will release its first non-farm payroll report after the government shutdown, including partial data for October and complete data for November, and the latest US CPI data will also be released this week. Additionally, China's November &#34;three drivers&#34; data and the loan market quoted interest rate (5 years) will also be announced this week</p>

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<p>The Hang Seng Index fell 238 points in the half-day session, breaking below the 20-day moving average, with Alibaba down nearly 3%. Insurance stocks rose against the market trend, with AIA and Ping An both up over 2%. The National Financial Regulatory Administration issued a notice to boost market sentiment. CICC predicts that the life insurance industry will enter a golden period again in 2026, with Ping An's target price raised to HKD 99.4. LI NING's first dragon store opened globally, and its stock price rose over 4.9%. Citigroup expects LI NING's revenue and net profit to grow, raising the target price to HKD 20.6. Several sports goods stocks also saw increases</p>

- The Hang Seng Index opened down 258 points, closing at 25,737, a drop of 0.92%, with significant declines in tech stocks like Alibaba and Tencent.  
- The insurance sector showed resilience, with AIA and Ping An both rising over 2%, following regulatory changes aimed at encouraging long-term capital.  
- Analysts predict the index will fluctuate between 25,000 and 26,300 points, as market sentiment remains cautious ahead of upcoming central bank interest rate decisions globally.

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The Hang Seng Index fell 238 points in half a day, losing the 20-day moving average. Alibaba dropped nearly 3%, while insurance and sports goods stocks rose against the trend | Hong Kong stock market opens