<h2>Summary</h2>
First, from the economic data in November, the situation of insufficient effective demand remains significant. The supply side is generally stable, with industrial added value increasing by 4.8% year-on-year, slightly slowing down by 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous value, which can basically be explained by fluctuations due to base changes; the demand side shows clear differentiation, with export growth rebounding, while domestic demand remains weak: fixed asset investment is roughly flat year-on-year at around -11%; the decline in real estate sales area has slightly narrowed, but the year-on-year decline in sales revenue has expanded; social retail year-on-year growth has significantly slowed to 1.3%.
Second, the seasonally adjusted month-on-month industrial added value is 0.44%, higher than in October, and roughly in line with the average month-on-month value of the previous 10 months, indicating little change in the real intensity of industrial production. The year-on-year added value of high-tech industries reached 8.4%, leading the way, with high-speed growth in production including integrated circuits and industrial robots; the growth rate is relatively high but has slowed for power generation equipment and new energy vehicles; non-ferrous metals show relatively high growth. The production growth rate of some chemical products (ethylene, chemical fibers) is also not low. The production of smartphones and solar cells has seen negative year-on-year growth; crude steel and cement, among other construction products, have also experienced negative year-on-year growth.
Third, the seasonally adjusted month-on-month social retail is -0.42%, lower than June's -0.33%, marking the lowest point of the year. From the main categories above the limit, the absolute growth rate is highest for communication equipment, reaching 20.6% year-on-year; categories with significant changes in year-on-year growth compared to previous values include gold and silver jewelry, tobacco and alcohol, daily necessities, sports and entertainment products, and furniture, which may include base effects, fluctuations in gold prices, and other non-intrinsic factors. Additionally, the reduced promotional intensity of e-commerce platforms during &#34;Double 11&#34; under the &#34;anti-involution&#34; background, focusing more on quality than quantity, may be an important reason for the significant seasonal gap compared to last year. The absolute growth rate is lowest for durable consumer goods such as home appliances and automobiles, influenced by high base levels, relatively sufficient demand pulse release, the decline of local subsidies, and reduced promotional intensity.
Fourth, the seasonally adjusted month-on-month fixed asset investment is -1.03%, slightly higher than the previous value of -1.5%, roughly equivalent to the average month-on-month value since the start of construction in March of -1.02%. The year-on-year figure for the month is -11.1%, roughly flat compared to the previous value of -11.2%. Among these, the decline in manufacturing investment has narrowed, while the decline in real estate investment has expanded, with infrastructure showing little change. In early Q4 this year, 500 billion in policy financial tools were issued, corresponding to a total project investment of about 7 trillion yuan. It is expected that some projects will fall into manufacturing and some into infrastructure, but currently, no impact characteristics have been seen in the infrastructure data, possibly due to the off-season for construction, which will need to be observed further in Q1 next year. In the first 11 months of this year, fixed asset investment year-on-year was -2.6%, while fixed asset investment excluding real estate was 0.8%. The low capital formation rate represented by fixed investment this year may be one of the sources of contraction forces in certain areas of the economy and the relatively differentiated industry outlook.
Fifth, real estate-related indicators remain at low levels. The decline in sales area has slightly narrowed; however, the decline in sales revenue has expanded; the decline in newly started construction area has slightly narrowed, but the decline in construction area has expanded. In terms of housing prices, in November, the new residential price index for 70 large and medium-sized cities was -0.4% month-on-month, slightly better than October's -0.5%, but the decline remains at the second-highest point of the year;
The second-hand residential price index decreased by 0.7% month-on-month, remaining flat compared to the previous value, with the decline still at a high point for the year. It is still necessary and realistic to promote the stabilization of both volume and price in the real estate market.
Sixth, in November, the year-on-year industrial added value and service production index, as well as the actual GDP index simulated by industrial added value and social retail, were 4.31% and 4.14% respectively, with an average of around 4.22%. Thus, the cumulative year-on-year actual GDP for the first 11 months was 5.02%. In December, both industry and services face a high base under the &#34;924&#34; policy impact, with last December's industrial growth year-on-year reaching 6.2%, and the social retail base also rising by 0.7 points compared to November. Stabilizing the short-term economic month-on-month trend is crucial for achieving the annual economic growth target.
Seventh, further breaking down the economic data, export resilience is strong, while the main shortcoming lies in domestic demand, with the main weaknesses in consumption, fixed asset investment, and real estate. The latest guidance from the Central Economic Work Conference includes &#34;prominent contradictions between strong domestic supply and weak demand,&#34; &#34;must fully tap into economic potential,&#34; as well as &#34;promote investment stabilization,&#34; &#34;deeply implement special actions to boost consumption,&#34; and &#34;focus on stabilizing the real estate market,&#34; all of which address the main contradictions. After the November economic data was released, there is room for short-term policy strengthening.
<h2>Main Text</h2>
From the November economic data, the situation of insufficient effective demand remains significant. The supply side is generally stable, with industrial added value year-on-year at 4.8%, slightly slowing down by 0.1 points compared to the previous value, which can basically be explained by fluctuations due to base changes; the demand side shows clear differentiation, with export growth rebounding, while domestic demand remains weak: fixed asset investment year-on-year is roughly flat at around -11% compared to the previous value; the decline in real estate sales area has slightly narrowed, but the year-on-year decline in sales revenue has expanded; social retail year-on-year has significantly slowed to 1.3%.
In November 2025, industrial added value year-on-year was 4.8%, slightly lower than the previous value of 4.9%. The service production index year-on-year was 4.2%, lower than the previous value of 4.6%. Exports year-on-year were 5.9%, higher than the previous value of -1.1%. Fixed asset investment for the month year-on-year was -11.1%, roughly flat compared to the previous value of -11.2%. Social retail year-on-year was 1.3%, lower than the previous value of 2.9%. Real estate sales area year-on-year was -17.1%, better than the previous value of -18.6%; sales revenue year-on-year was -24.7%, worse than the previous value of -24.1%.
<img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/fb0a384d-c981-406d-b773-d2993eec2d30.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/fb0a384d-c981-406d-b773-d2993eec2d30.png"/>
The seasonally adjusted month-on-month industrial added value was 0.44%, higher than in October, and roughly in line with the month-on-month average of the previous 10 months, indicating that the real intensity of industrial production has not changed much. The year-on-year added value of high-tech industries reached 8.4%, leading the way, with high-speed growth in production including integrated circuits and industrial robots; the growth rate is relatively high but has slowed for power generation equipment and new energy vehicles; and the growth rate for non-ferrous metals is relatively moderate. The production growth rate of some chemical products (ethylene, chemical fibers) is also not low. The production of smartphones and solar cells has seen negative year-on-year growth;
The year-on-year negative growth of construction products such as crude steel and cement.
In November, the industrial added value seasonally adjusted month-on-month was 0.44%, higher than the previous value of 0.17%, roughly in line with the average of 0.45% over the previous 10 months.
In November, the added value of high-tech industries increased by 8.4% year-on-year, higher than the previous value of 7.2%.
In November, the output of integrated circuits increased by 15.6% year-on-year, lower than the previous value of 17.7%; the output of industrial robots increased by 20.6% year-on-year, higher than the previous value of 17.9%. The output of power generation equipment increased by 9.9% year-on-year, lower than the previous value of 16.9%; the output of new energy vehicles increased by 17.0% year-on-year, lower than the previous value of 19.3%. The output of non-ferrous metals increased by 4.7% year-on-year, higher than the previous value of 2.9%. The output of ethylene increased by 7.3% year-on-year, lower than the previous value of 11.7%. The output of chemical fibers increased by 6.4% year-on-year, higher than the previous value of 4.1%.
In November, the output of smartphones decreased by 9.1% year-on-year, lower than the previous value of -2.6%; the output of solar cells decreased by 3.0% year-on-year, higher than the previous value of -8.7%; the output of crude steel decreased by 10.9% year-on-year, higher than the previous value of -12.1%; the output of cement decreased by 8.2% year-on-year, higher than the previous value of -15.8%.
The retail sales of consumer goods seasonally adjusted month-on-month decreased by 0.42%, lower than June's -0.33%, marking the lowest point of the year. Among the main categories above the limit, the absolute growth rate was highest for communication equipment, with a year-on-year increase of 20.6%; categories with significant changes in year-on-year growth compared to the previous value included gold and silver jewelry, tobacco and alcohol, daily necessities, sports and entertainment products, and furniture, which may include non-endogenous factors such as base effects and fluctuations in gold prices. Additionally, the decline in the intensity of short-term promotions during the e-commerce platform's &#34;Double 11&#34; under the &#34;anti-involution&#34; background, focusing on quality rather than quantity, may be an important reason for the significant seasonal gap between this year and last year. The absolute growth rate was lowest for durable consumer goods such as home appliances and automobiles, influenced by high base levels, relatively sufficient demand pulse release, the decline of local subsidies, and reduced promotional intensity.
In November, the retail sales of communication equipment increased by 20.6% year-on-year, slightly lower than the previous value of 23.2%; the retail sales of gold and silver jewelry increased by 8.5% year-on-year, lower than the previous value of 37.6%; the retail sales of tobacco and alcohol decreased by 3.4% year-on-year, lower than the previous value of 4.1%; the retail sales of daily necessities decreased by 0.8% year-on-year, lower than the previous value of 7.4%; the retail sales of sports and entertainment products increased by 0.4% year-on-year, lower than the previous value of 10.1%; the retail sales of furniture decreased by 3.8% year-on-year, lower than the previous value of 9.6%; the retail sales of home appliances decreased by 19.4% year-on-year, lower than the previous value of -14.6%; the retail sales of automobiles decreased by 8.3% year-on-year, lower than the previous value of -6.6%.
Fixed asset investment seasonally adjusted month-on-month decreased by 1.03%, slightly higher than the previous value of -1.5%, and roughly equivalent to the month-on-month average of -1.02% since the start of construction in March. The year-on-year figure for the month was -11.1%, roughly in line with the previous value of -11.2%. Among them, the decline in manufacturing investment narrowed, while the decline in real estate investment expanded, with infrastructure showing little change. In early Q4 of this year, 500 billion yuan of policy financial tools were issued, corresponding to a total project investment of about 7 trillion yuan. It is expected that some projects will fall into manufacturing and some into infrastructure, but currently, no impact characteristics have been seen in the infrastructure data, possibly due to the off-season for construction, which will need to be observed further in Q1 of next year
In the first 11 months of this year, fixed asset investment decreased by 2.6% year-on-year, while fixed asset investment excluding real estate increased by 0.8% year-on-year. The low capital formation rate represented by fixed asset investment this year may be one of the sources of contraction forces in certain areas of the economy and the relatively differentiated industry outlook.
In November, fixed asset investment decreased by 11.1% year-on-year, compared to a decrease of 11.2% in the previous value; among them, manufacturing investment decreased by 4.5% year-on-year, compared to -6.7% in the previous value; real estate investment decreased by 30.1% year-on-year, compared to -23.1% in the previous value; large-caliber infrastructure investment decreased by 11.9% year-on-year, compared to -12.1% in the previous value; small-caliber infrastructure investment decreased by 9.7% year-on-year, compared to -8.9% in the previous value.
<img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/c7d02292-7a07-48aa-a989-b7e1846cc721.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/c7d02292-7a07-48aa-a989-b7e1846cc721.png"/>
Real estate-related indicators remain at low levels. The decline in sales area has slightly narrowed; however, the decline in sales revenue has expanded; the decline in newly started construction area has slightly narrowed, but the decline in construction area has expanded. In terms of housing prices, in November, the new residential price index in 70 large and medium-sized cities decreased by 0.4% month-on-month, slightly better than October's -0.5%, but the decline remains at a high point for the year; the second-hand residential price index decreased by 0.7% month-on-month, unchanged from the previous value, and the decline remains at a high point for the year. It is still necessary and realistic to stabilize the decline in volume and price in the real estate market.
In November, real estate investment decreased by 30.1% year-on-year, compared to a decrease of 23.1% in the previous value; among them, the newly started construction area decreased by 27.6% year-on-year, compared to -29.6% in the previous value; the construction area decreased by 40% year-on-year, compared to -9.4% in the previous value; the completed area decreased by 25.4% year-on-year, compared to -28.4% in the previous value; the sales area of commercial housing decreased by 17.1% year-on-year, compared to -18.6% in the previous value; the sales revenue decreased by 24.7% year-on-year, compared to -24.1% in the previous value.
In November, the funds in place for real estate development decreased by 32.3% year-on-year, compared to a decrease of 22.1% in the previous value; among them, domestic loans decreased by 10.6% year-on-year, compared to -6.7% in the previous value; self-raised funds decreased by 30.6% year-on-year, compared to -17.4% in the previous value; deposits and advance payments decreased by 42.3% year-on-year, compared to -26% in the previous value; personal mortgage loans decreased by 34.6% year-on-year, compared to -30.8% in the previous value.
In November, the year-on-year growth rates of industrial added value and service production index, as well as the actual GDP index simulated by industrial added value and social retail, were 4.31% and 4.14%, respectively, with an average of around 4.22%. Thus, the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of actual GDP for the first 11 months was 5.02%. In December, both industry and services face a high base under the impact of the &#34;924&#34; policy, as the year-on-year growth of industrial added value reached 6.2% last December, and the social retail base also increased by 0.7 percentage points compared to November. Stabilizing the short-term economic trend is crucial for achieving the annual economic growth target.
In November and December 2024, the year-on-year growth rates of industrial added value are expected to be 5.4% and 6.2%, respectively; the year-on-year growth rates of service production index are expected to be 6.1% and 6.5%, respectively; and the year-on-year growth rates of total retail sales of consumer goods are expected to be 3.0% and 3.7%, respectively
Further breakdown of economic data shows that exports are resilient, while the main shortcoming lies in domestic demand, particularly in consumption, fixed asset investment, and real estate. The latest guidance from the Central Economic Work Conference includes &#34;the contradiction of strong domestic supply and weak demand is prominent,&#34; &#34;we must fully tap into economic potential,&#34; as well as &#34;promote investment to stop declining and stabilize,&#34; &#34;deeply implement special actions to boost consumption,&#34; and &#34;focus on stabilizing the real estate market,&#34; all of which address the main contradictions. After the release of November's economic data, there is room for short-term policy strengthening.
Source: Guo Lei Macro Tea House
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Guangfa's Guo Lei analyzed the November economic data, pointing out that effective demand remains significantly insufficient, while the supply side is stable, with industrial added value increasing by 4.8% year-on-year. The demand side is differentiated, with export growth rebounding, weak domestic demand, fixed asset investment remaining flat year-on-year, a widening year-on-year decline in real estate sales, and a significant slowdown in retail sales year-on-year to 1.3%. The added value of high-tech industries increased by 8.4% year-on-year, while the production of smartphones and solar cells experienced negative year-on-year growth. The space for policy strengthening has opened up

Guotai Junan's Guo Lei comments on November's economy: Insufficient effective demand is highlighted, and the space for policy strengthening is opened