Has the gold price peaked after surging and then retreating? The hopes for a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine are reducing demand, and tonight two key data points will be crucial

Former U.S. President Donald Trump stated that he is very close to achieving the goal of a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine. Amid optimistic sentiments for a ceasefire, gold prices, seen as a safe-haven asset, experienced a short-term decline, dropping over $33 to a level of $4,271. However, whether gold prices will reverse from this point depends on the U.S. non-farm payroll report for October and November, which will be released tonight at 9:30 PM, as well as the retail sales data, commonly referred to as "terrifying data." These two pieces of data will provide key clues for the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut path. If rate cut expectations rise again, it could trigger a rebound in gold prices and the stock market. Trump is confident in persuading Russia According to media reports, U.S. and Ukrainian officials consulted on a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire agreement in Berlin, Germany, on Monday (15th). It was reported that the U.S. suggested providing Ukraine with security guarantees similar to NATO's Article 5 (the collective defense clause) to gain Ukraine's agreement to a ceasefire, and Trump is also said to be confident in persuading Russia to accept it. In terms of gold price trends, although it has been strong recently, reaching a high of $4,353 last Friday, it has fallen below $4,300 today, leading to profit-taking in several gold-related stocks listed in Hong Kong. Among them, Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining (6693) and Zijin Mining Group (2259) both fell over 6%, while Zijin Mining (2899) and Lingbao Gold (3330) dropped nearly 5%. China Silver Group (815) also fell over 4%. Data filled with anomalies due to government shutdown It is worth noting that the U.S. will announce the non-farm payroll report for October and November tonight at 9:30 PM, but it is filled with anomalies. Due to the record 43-day shutdown of the U.S. federal government, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) extended the data collection period for November but could not backtrack the household survey data for October, and will combine the non-farm payroll reports for October and November instead of announcing them separately by month. Additionally, tens of thousands of government employees who accepted the "deferred resignation plan" left their positions after September 30, which may lead to negative growth in October's non-farm payroll numbers due to large-scale layoffs by the federal government. The U.S. Office of Personnel Management (OPM) previously stated that about 144,000 government employees accepted the deferred resignation plan. Goldman Sachs predicts that this will reduce October's employment numbers by 70,000 and another 10,000 in November. According to the median consensus expectation from a Bloomberg survey, economists expect non-farm payrolls to increase by 50,000, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.5%, the highest since 2021. Morgan Stanley: Good economic data may be "bad news" On the other hand, the U.S. will also release retail sales data for October at the same time tonight. Media surveys indicate that October's data is expected to rise by 0.2% month-on-month, with the previous value also showing a growth of 0.2%. Other economists predict that retail sales excluding automobiles and gasoline will accelerate, indicating robust consumer demand at the beginning of the fourth quarter In addition to affecting gold prices, economic data results also impact the stock market. Morgan Stanley's Chief U.S. Equity Strategist Michael Wilson believes that if the report shows moderately weak U.S. employment data, it may actually help drive the stock market up, as the market has currently returned to a state where "good economic news is bad news for the stock market." He explained that while a thriving labor market is beneficial for the economy, it would reduce the likelihood of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates next year. Related articles: Gold and silver prices soar, fearing "aftereffects," with silver targets reaching $100, but a large amount of selling is expected in January