Wall Street's Next Obsession? Betting on the Fed, M&A, and Elections Goes Mainstream
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Citizens Financial Group analysts predict significant growth in prediction markets, with revenues potentially expanding to over $10 billion by 2030. Currently generating $2 billion annually, platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket are seeing rising trading volumes. Robinhood's Kalshi contracts are rapidly scaling, representing 10% of its revenue. Analysts see prediction markets as a tool for hedging risks related to central bank decisions and M&A, drawing parallels to options trading. Major players like ICE and CME Group are investing, despite regulatory questions, indicating a growing interest in economic and company-specific event contracts.
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