Polymarket data shows that the market now expects a 91% probability that Trump will not announce his next Federal Reserve chair before December 31, 2025. Among potential candidates to be announced this year, Kevin Hassett's chances of winning have dropped to 4%, while Chris Waller and Kevin Warsh have probabilities of 3% and 2%, respectively. Although the market previously had high expectations for Trump to secure the Fed leadership early, current betting trends suggest that the appointment process may be delayed more than anticipated.
