European Aviation: Jet Fuel Faces "Systemic" Shortage If Hormuz Not Fully Open Within Three Weeks

The European aviation industry is nearing a critical point of a fuel crisis. An industry organization representing EU airports has issued a warning: if the Strait of Hormuz cannot resume stable passage within three weeks, Europe will face a "systemic" shortage of jet fuel, with the peak summer travel season bearing the brunt.

According to the Financial Times, ACI Europe has sent a letter to EU Transport Commissioner Apostolos Tzitzikostas, expressing "growing concerns" regarding jet fuel supply and the need for EU-level monitoring and response mechanisms.

The letter explicitly warns: "If passage through the Strait of Hormuz does not resume in any significant and stable manner within the next three weeks, a systemic jet fuel shortage will become a reality for the EU."

The letter also points out that Europe's summer tourism season is fast approaching, during which air transport is crucial to the overall tourism ecosystem upon which many EU economies depend, further intensifying the industry's urgency.

Fuel prices have already surged dramatically. The benchmark jet fuel price in Northwest Europe closed at $1,573 per ton on Thursday, compared to approximately $750 per ton before the Iran conflict, nearly doubling in price. Several European airlines have stated that current inventories are sufficient for several more weeks, but suppliers can no longer guarantee stable deliveries after May.

Supply Chain Pressure Continues to Mount

The Strait of Hormuz is a transit route for about 40% of the world's jet fuel, and its passage status directly impacts the global supply landscape. ACI Europe noted in its letter that current jet fuel reserves are declining, and "the impact of military activities on demand" further exacerbates supply pressures.

While widespread shortages have not yet occurred in Europe, some regions have already shown signs of localized tightness.

Last weekend, four Italian airports imposed restrictions on jet fuel usage after a key supplier experienced an interruption. Meanwhile, some Asian countries, such as Vietnam, have begun rationing jet fuel.

ACI Europe called on the EU to establish a comprehensive supply monitoring mechanism, stating: "Currently, there is no unified system at the EU level for the collation, assessment, and monitoring of jet fuel production and supply conditions."

Airlines Begin Cutting Capacity

The soaring fuel costs have already forced airlines to scale back operations.

Delta Air Lines announced this week that it will reduce capacity by 3.5%, including some mid-day and night flights on weekdays, to offset the impact of high fuel prices. The airline anticipates an increase of $2 billion in fuel cost expenditures between April and June.

Air New Zealand has also reduced some flights, citing rising fuel costs. LOT Polish Airlines announced a reduction in flights on routes with lower passenger load factors and expects to increase ticket prices.

Economic Impact Risks Cannot Be Ignored

ACI Europe further warned in its letter about the chain reaction that a systemic shortage could trigger: "Once supply tightens, it will seriously disrupt airport operations and air connectivity, causing a severe economic shock to the affected regions and Europe as a whole."

This risk is particularly sensitive on the eve of the summer travel season. The economies of many European countries are highly dependent on tourism. If a jet fuel shortage leads to large-scale flight cancellations, the impact will extend far beyond the aviation industry, reaching hotels, retail, and local economies.

The industry's core demand currently is to push the EU to establish a unified supply monitoring and coordination mechanism as soon as possible, in order to gain a window of response before the situation deteriorates further.