---
title: "The profit-making effect weakens, the safe-haven aura fades... Is the gold price stuck?"
type: "News"
locale: "en"
url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/288458315.md"
description: "Recently, international gold prices have been fluctuating narrowly between USD 4,400 and USD 4,500 per ounce, with upward momentum weakening. Guojin Securities believes the core reasons are the weakening of three major support logics: first, the clear monetization path of AI has reduced safe-haven demand; second, the liquidity turning point has not yet appeared, leading to a reduction in trading leverage; third, the credit risk premium of the US dollar has declined. Market sentiment sensitivity has decreased, and gold prices have shifted from a unilateral upward trend to consolidation"
datetime: "2026-06-02T10:43:48.000Z"
locales:
  - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/288458315.md)
  - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/288458315.md)
  - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/288458315.md)
---

# The profit-making effect weakens, the safe-haven aura fades... Is the gold price stuck?

**Internet News Information Service License Number: 51120180008**

Recently, international oil prices have seen a significant decline due to the easing of tensions between the U.S. and Iran and the rising expectations of the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, dropping from a high of $110.92 per barrel on May 19 to around $92 per barrel currently.

At the same time, gold has not rebounded as it did in the past alongside oil price adjustments, but instead continues to fluctuate within a narrow range of $4,400 to $4,500 per ounce. Financial Investment News reporters have noted that after reaching a historical high of $5,600 per ounce in early 2026, **international gold prices have experienced a significant pullback and have yet to form new upward momentum.**

**The Logic Behind Gold's Rise is Weakening**

Why has gold price stagnated? The research team at Guojin Securities believes the core reason lies in the phase-wise weakening of the three supporting logics for gold:

First, the significant backdrop for gold's surge in 2025 was the market's concern over the AI bubble and the overvaluation of tech stocks, **with gold taking on the role of hedging against the uncertainties of the AI narrative.**

However, since March of this year, applications like OpenClaw, representing AgentAI, have rapidly gained traction, pushing large model companies to shift from a "subscription revenue" model to a "subscription + usage-based payment" model, clarifying the monetization path for AI. This has led to a renewed focus on profit-driven growth for tech stocks, reducing the market's demand for gold as a safe-haven asset.

Secondly, the most important **liquidity inflection point for gold has yet to appear** in the short term.

Although oil prices and U.S. Treasury yields have temporarily declined, the market remains concerned about a second wave of inflation. As of the end of May, the futures market has not priced in interest rate cuts for the year, gold ETF holdings have decreased since March, and CFTC non-commercial net long positions have also dropped to their lowest levels in nearly two years. This indicates that trading funds are reducing leverage, taking profits, or lowering their bets on further increases in gold, with market sentiment sensitivity significantly declining.

Thirdly, the surge in gold prices in 2025 essentially priced in the impact of certain foreign political policies **on the credit of the U.S. dollar, trade order, and the boundaries of the U.S. system.**

However, since the beginning of this year, the Federal Reserve's personnel arrangements have not become extreme, and the slope of the short-term expansion of the fiscal deficit has also eased. The risk premium on U.S. dollar credit has temporarily declined, causing gold to shift from a one-sided upward trend to a phase of consolidation.

"Recent U.S. inflation indicators, particularly the PCE data, will also impact gold's trajectory," said Yang Delong, chief economist at Qianhai Kaiyuan Fund, in an interview with Financial Investment News reporters.

In his view, the previously released U.S. CPI reached 3.8%, a recent high, leading to market expectations of rising inflation in the U.S. and further delays in the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, which have further suppressed gold's performance. This PCE data also exceeded expectations, and the Federal Reserve may become more cautious about rate cuts, with some investors even anticipating a shift in monetary policy from a rate-cutting cycle to a rate-hiking cycle. **"This has a significant negative impact on gold prices and will undoubtedly affect short-term fluctuations in gold."**

**Multiple Commercial Banks**

**Relax Investment Restrictions on Gold**

Reporters have noted that alongside the decline in gold prices, **the Shanghai Gold Exchange has lowered the margin ratios and price limits for certain deferred contracts, and some banks have also relaxed restrictions on gold investments.** On May 29, the Shanghai Gold Exchange announced that starting from the close of trading on June 1, 2026, the margin ratio for contracts such as Au (T+D), mAu (T+D), Au (T+N1), and Au (T+N2) will be adjusted from 18% to 15%. The limit on price fluctuations will be adjusted from 17% to 14% starting from the next trading day. The margin ratio for Ag (T+D) contracts will be adjusted from 24% to 21%, and the limit on price fluctuations will be adjusted from 23% to 20% starting from the next trading day.

The exchange also requires all member units to appropriately adjust the margin collection ratio based on clients' positions and risk situations, and reminds investors to pay attention to trading risks, invest rationally, control position sizes reasonably, and ensure the smooth operation of the market.

Several commercial banks have recently adjusted the risk ratings for their gold accumulation business.

For example, starting from May 19, 2026, the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China will adjust the product risk level of its Ru Yi gold accumulation business to **R2—medium-low risk**, corresponding to a client risk tolerance level adjustment to C2—conservative and above. This relaxation of access comes just four months after the bank tightened access in January of this year. At that time, international gold prices were highly volatile, prompting several banks to issue risk warnings and manage risks by increasing the minimum purchase amount, raising risk levels, and restricting trading permissions for certain clients.

On May 25, China Construction Bank just released a new version of the customer rights notice and risk disclosure for personal gold accumulation business, clearly adjusting the names of product risk levels and customer risk tolerance levels. **The risk level for personal gold accumulation business remains unchanged at R4, but the name has changed from "high risk" to "medium-high risk."**

**Buying in batches and positioning at lows**

**May be a better strategy currently.**

The continuous decline in gold prices has left investors indecisive about whether to buy the dip now or continue to wait. Is gold still a safe-haven asset?

"There is currently a voice suggesting that gold has doubled in price over the past two years, accumulating a lot of profit-taking, with increased volatility showing characteristics of a risk asset, and it is no longer a safe-haven asset but a risk asset. **This is also the reason why the yields of some gold-related products launched by banks have shown significant fluctuations.**" Yang Delong stated that investing in gold should focus on long-term allocation, treating it as part of a broader asset allocation rather than just paying attention to short-term fluctuations. **"Short-term fluctuations are hard to grasp, but every major drop is a good opportunity for positioning."**

Currently, institutions are generally cautious about the short-term trend of gold, but remain bullish in the long term. Several well-known investment banks believe that international gold prices are still expected to reach new highs in the future, although short-term bearish factors may affect prices. Citibank recently publicly stated that **it predicts that gold prices will reach $4,300 per ounce within the next three months.**

The research team at Guojin Securities believes that if concerns about an AI bubble resurface in the future, gold prices may once again enter an upward channel, and a renewed expectation of liquidity easing could trigger a bullish trend. From an allocation perspective, last year's rapid rise in gold made it difficult for allocation participants; **this year's decrease in gold price volatility and entry into a phase of consolidation may actually provide a better window for medium- to long-term allocation.** "For investors who missed the opportunity earlier, the short-term rapid adjustment in gold prices may provide an opportunity to allocate assets such as gold, gold ETFs, gold funds, or gold stocks," said Yang Delong. He indicated that a strategy of buying in batches and positioning during dips is currently a good approach, and the holding period should be relatively long to smooth out the fluctuations in returns caused by short-term volatility.

"After the collapse of the Bretton Woods system, **the long-term allocation value of gold is increasing, and it can still be viewed positively in the long term**. It is recommended that investors allocate about 20% of their portfolio to gold-related assets, which is a suitable proportion that can be adjusted based on each family's actual situation."

| Financial Investment Reporter Zhang Luxuan |

Editor | Wang Wei

Chief Editor | Chen Yuhe

Reviewer | Hu Jiajie Third Review | Zhang Jing

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