--- title: "Pig prices continue to bottom out below 10 yuan, with an average loss of 339 yuan per self-breeding and self-raising head. Institutions: Pay attention to the key node in June!" type: "News" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/288506896.md" description: "The A-share animal husbandry and breeding sector continues to be weak, with pork prices falling below 10 yuan/kg, and the industry is deeply mired in losses. Despite limited consumption boost during the Dragon Boat Festival and significant supply pressure, left-side funds are counter-cyclically positioning in ETFs. The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs has strengthened capacity regulation and lowered the target for the number of breeding sows. Institutions believe the sector is already at a low point, and the mid-term reversal logic is smooth" datetime: "2026-06-03T02:35:15.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/288506896.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/288506896.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/288506896.md) generator: "portal-rs" --- # Pig prices continue to bottom out below 10 yuan, with an average loss of 339 yuan per self-breeding and self-raising head. Institutions: Pay attention to the key node in June! The A-share animal husbandry and breeding sector continues to show weakness. On the morning of June 3rd, the **China Merchants CSI Animal Husbandry ETF (516670)** fell by 1.32%, dipping below the 0.6 yuan mark during trading, with constituent stocks collectively weakening. Xiaoming Co. dropped over 4%, while major stocks like Wen's Foodstuffs, Muyuan Foods, and Haida Group saw significant declines. As of now, the China Securities Animal Husbandry Index has fallen to its lowest level since January 2025, nearly erasing all gains during the interval. Despite ongoing pressure, some left-side funds have begun to position themselves against the trend during the cyclical trough, with the China Merchants CSI Animal Husbandry ETF (516670) seeing an increase of 880 million yuan in scale over the past three months, and a 58% increase in shares year-to-date. **Pork prices continue to operate at low levels, and the industry is deeply mired in losses** Industry insiders believe that the core reason for the sector's continued weakness is that pig prices have been running below the cost line for an extended period. According to data from Zhuhaodao.com, on June 3rd, the national average price for external three-yuan pigs was 9.59 yuan/kg, with the pig-to-grain ratio maintaining at 4:1, remaining in the excessive decline early warning zone. On the breeding side, current losses per self-bred pig are 339 yuan, while losses for purchased piglets are 269 yuan, with the entire industry having been in a state of deep losses for 7-8 consecutive months. Additionally, there were previous market hopes that the start of the Dragon Boat Festival stocking in early June would boost pork prices, but the actual feedback—slaughter enterprises generally adopting a low-price purchasing attitude—indicates that the consumption boost from the Dragon Boat Festival is limited, with weak sales of pork. The failure to meet expectations for a month-end rebound has triggered selling pressure. At the same time, supply-side pressures remain. The average weight of national market pigs is 128.8 kg, the second-highest level for the same period in the past five years; the cold storage capacity for frozen products has exceeded 30%, reaching a new high since 2021. The recovery in terminal consumption is weak, and slaughter enterprises generally adopt a low-price purchasing attitude, leaving pork prices lacking effective upward driving force. It is worth noting that the policy side is significantly strengthening its capacity control measures. On May 14th, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs issued the "Comprehensive Regulation Implementation Plan for Pig Production Capacity (2026 Revision)," reducing the normal holding capacity of sows nationwide from 39 million to 37.5 million, narrowing the green zone to 92%-103%, and including large group enterprises with over 100,000 heads in the monitoring list. On May 18th, the Ministry further deployed the implementation of the new plan, sending seven working groups to major producing provinces to supervise policy implementation. **Institutional Interpretation: The sector has fallen to a low range, and the logic for a mid-term reversal is smooth** As of now, the China Securities Animal Husbandry Index has fallen to its lowest level since January 2025, nearly erasing all gains during the interval. Despite ongoing pressure, multiple institutions believe that it is currently in the cyclical bottom area, with medium to long-term allocation value gradually emerging. Shenwan Hongyuan believes that **the price of live pigs has transitioned from a rapid bottoming phase to a grinding bottom phase, with the entire industry experiencing deep losses and continuous cash flow bleeding, which will gradually undermine industry confidence and cash reserves**. The attention to policy regulation has significantly increased, and it is necessary to pay attention to the possibility of capacity regulation exceeding expectations in the future. The mid-term logic of gradually reducing breeding capacity and the approaching cycle reversal remains smooth. Great Wall Securities, based on historical data analysis, believes that June is usually a key node for the transformation of supply and demand patterns within the year. The inventory of breeding sows has been continuously reduced since the peak in August 2025, and based on a 10-month transmission lag, the previous reduction effects will gradually reflect on the market supply in the second half of the year. June is expected to welcome a seasonal turning point and a resonance of capacity reduction effects, **with supply pressure in the second half of the year likely to trend towards easing, but pig prices are likely to show a "bottom stabilization and slow recovery" trend, without a rapid reversal and surge.** Shanxi Securities stated that the period of industry losses is a good time window for capacity reduction. **This year may see the third significant capacity reduction since 2021**, and the fundamentals and valuations of the pig farming industry are expected to be repaired. It is worth noting that despite the continuous decline in the sector, left-side funds are positioning against the trend. Data shows that the livestock farming ETF China Merchants (516670) has seen an increase of 880 million yuan in scale over the past three months, with a share increase of 58% this year. In summary, the current breeding sector is at a critical stage of "pig price grinding bottom - deep losses - accelerated capacity reduction - approaching cycle reversal." In the short term, pig prices still face constraints from supply pressure and weak consumption, but the mid-term logic of policy regulation exceeding expectations and industry losses forcing capacity clearance continues to strengthen, and the characteristics of the sector's bottom have become relatively clear ### Related Stocks - [159867.CN](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/159867.CN.md) - [516670.CN](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/516670.CN.md) - [300967.CN](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/300967.CN.md) - [300498.CN](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/300498.CN.md) - [002714.CN](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/002714.CN.md) - [002311.CN](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/002311.CN.md) - [000166.CN](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/000166.CN.md) - [06806.HK](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/06806.HK.md) - [002939.CN](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/002939.CN.md) - [002500.CN](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/002500.CN.md) - [02714.HK](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/02714.HK.md) - [00218.HK](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/00218.HK.md) ## Related News & Research - [Hogs Can’t Hold Early Rally: Falls Back to Support](https://longbridge.com/en/news/296145034.md) - [INSIGHT-As Europe bakes, momentum grows for climate-resilient farming](https://longbridge.com/en/news/296308417.md) - [11:06 ETEndurance Named to Inc. 5000 for 11th Time, Continuing National Growth](https://longbridge.com/en/news/296124358.md) - [Panoro Energy places USD 50 million senior unsecured bond offering](https://longbridge.com/en/news/296383048.md) - [China Union Drops After Saying Argentinian Brine Miner Acquisition to Face Canadian Security Review](https://longbridge.com/en/news/296072070.md) --- > **Disclaimer: This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice.**