---
title: "Merlin Stock Soars On Defense Milestone, But IPO Wreckage Is Hard To Ignore"
type: "News"
locale: "en"
url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/288881994.md"
description: "Merlin Inc. (NASDAQ:MRLN) shares surged over 25% following a successful critical design review of its Merlin Pilot system with U.S. Special Operations Command, marking a key technical milestone. Despite this progress in defense contracts, the stock remains down nearly 47% from its post-IPO peak, reflecting past financial underperformance and ongoing challenges in translating technical wins into substantial revenue."
datetime: "2026-06-05T15:00:45.000Z"
locales:
  - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/288881994.md)
  - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/288881994.md)
  - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/288881994.md)
generator: "portal-rs"
---

# Merlin Stock Soars On Defense Milestone, But IPO Wreckage Is Hard To Ignore

**Merlin, Inc.** (NASDAQ:MRLN) shares surged Friday morning after the autonomous aviation startup announced it successfully completed a critical design review for its Merlin Pilot system with U.S. Special Operations Command (USSOCOM).

It is a meaningful technical and contractual milestone for a company that has struggled to live up to its post-IPO promise.

-   **MRLN stock is climbing. See the chart and price action here.** 

Shares were trading around $8.94, per Benzinga Pro data, still deeply below the 52-week high of $17 hit shortly after the company went public on March 17, 2026. 

Merlin stock has shed roughly 47% from that peak, a painful slide for early investors who bought into the thesis that Merlin could become the “operating system of record” for autonomous military aviation.

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The USSOCOM milestone is the clearest validation Merlin has delivered yet. 

The company’s aircraft-agnostic Merlin Pilot platform — designed to enable autonomous flight across a wide range of aircraft and mission profiles — cleared a critical engineering checkpoint with one of the most demanding customers in the world. 

The C-130J and KC-135 programs remain the centerpiece of Merlin’s defense revenue strategy, and Friday’s development suggests the programs are advancing on schedule.

## Why It Matters

The timing matters. Merlin’s first quarterly earnings report as a public company in mid-May was a rough read. 

Quarterly revenue came in at just $1 million, badly missing the $3 million consensus estimate, and EPS landed at a loss of 37 cents, far worse than the 10 cent loss Wall Street had penciled in. 

The post-earnings sell-off was swift, and Roth Capital — one of only two firms covering the name — slashed its price target from $25 to $15 before restoring it to $25 in April.

The analyst’s optimism hasn’t disappeared. Both Roth Capital and TD Cowen maintain Buy ratings, with Roth’s $25 target implying more than 175% upside from current levels. 

TD Cowen, which initiated coverage this week, flagged projected losses of $129 million in 2026 but argued the defense contract ramp justifies patience, according to CNBC. 

## The Takeaway

Merlin is a compelling defense AI story wrapped around a company generating less than $2 million in quarterly revenue with a market cap near $182.6 million. 

Friday’s design review win is exactly the kind of milestone that can re-rate a pre-revenue defense tech name — but bulls will need to see it translate into contract awards and, eventually, revenue that can justify the valuation. 

**MRLN Stock Price Activity:** Merlin stock was up 25.21% at $8.99 at the time of publication on Friday, according to Benzinga Pro. 

 **Read Also: Broadcom's AI Revenue Doubled — And It May Not Even Be Halfway Done**

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- [AVGO.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/AVGO.US.md)

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---
> **Disclaimer: This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice.**