--- title: "Despite The Gold Crash, Miners Offer A Massive Hidden Discount" type: "News" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/290816489.md" description: "Gold prices have plummeted 29% from their peak due to Fed rate hike fears and energy inflation, pushing spot prices below $4,000. While major banks like Bank of America and Deutsche Bank have revised forecasts lower citing tighter monetary policy, mining equities offer a hidden discount, valued at an implied price of $3,354/oz. Central bank demand remains supportive, suggesting long-term constructive outlooks despite short-term pessimism." datetime: "2026-06-25T10:18:38.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/290816489.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/290816489.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/290816489.md) generator: "portal-rs" --- # Despite The Gold Crash, Miners Offer A Massive Hidden Discount Gold’s spectacular rally, which made it one of the best-performing assets in 2025, has been undergoing an equally dramatic correction. Prices have tumbled around 29% from January’s record high of around $5,600 an ounce to below $4,000. The most popular ETF benchmark, **SPDR Gold Trust** (NYSE:GLD), has gone deeply into the red, down 8.12% year-to-date. The main catalyst has been an inflationary energy shock from the U.S.-Iran war. Inflation concerns forced a prompt revision of lower-interest-rate expectations that had driven the precious metals bull market of 2025. Instead, investors encountered tightening monetary policy and rapidly shifting sentiment. **Read Also: Peter Schiff Says Gold’s Selloff Is A Buying Opportunity, Bitcoin’s Decline Is ‘A Bubble Deflating’** ## Pricing the Fed Under the new Fed Chair, **Kevin Warsh**, policymakers have pivoted away from rate cuts and toward fighting energy inflation. According to the CME FedWatch, markets now imply roughly a 70% probability of a rate increase by September and a near-certainty of another move by December. The implications for a non-yielding asset like gold are straightforward. Opportunity costs rise, while a stronger U.S. dollar delivers a double whammy. Both dynamics have pressured bullion prices and encouraged investors to reduce exposure through exchange-traded funds. "The shift away from inflationary cuts toward tighter policy is a headwind for gold," **Bank of America** analysts wrote in the latest note. The bank is among the institutions revising the near-term outlook. Its previous forecast was $6,000 an ounce by next spring – a target that now appears unlikely under current monetary conditions. Analysts argue that gold must first "price out" the expected rate hikes before investment demand can recover. **Deutsche Bank** has likewise turned more cautious. According to Bloomberg, the bank cut its third-quarter gold forecast by 22% to $4,300 an ounce, though that still sits above the current spot price of around $4,000. "Fed repricing, together with resilient U.S. macro data, has played the primary role in pushing gold lower," analyst **Michael Hsueh** wrote in the Tuesday note. The bank expects a rebound toward $4,800 in the fourth quarter if the Fed pauses after its initial tightening moves. However, if three or four hikes materialize, the bank says it could drive the price to $3,800 an ounce. ## A Hidden Opportunity Yet beneath the short-term pessimism, metal’s long-term outlook remains constructive. Central bank demand continues to provide a critical foundation for prices. A recent survey showed that nearly three-quarters of reserve managers expect moderate or significant reductions in U.S. dollar holdings over the next five years, reinforcing the broader de-dollarization trend that has been driving official-sector purchases. The opportunity may be even more pronounced in mining equities. Bank of America’s price-to-net-asset-value analysis suggests gold producers are valuing bullion at an average implied price of just $3,354 an ounce, roughly 19% below prevailing spot levels. However, investors must take an extraordinary price dispersion into account. **Wheaton Precious Metals Corp.** (NYSE:WPM) carries the highest implied gold price at $4,395 an ounce, while **Franco-Nevada Corp.** (NYSE:FNV) reflects a far more conservative $2,416. *Photo via Shutterstock* **Read Also: Gold Just Met Its First Real Rival In Years — And It’s Not What Anyone Expected** ### Related Stocks - [NEM.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/NEM.US.md) - [SGOL.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SGOL.US.md) - [SGDM.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SGDM.US.md) - [518850.CN](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/518850.CN.md) - [UGL.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/UGL.US.md) - [GLD.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/GLD.US.md) - [GOLD.AU](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/GOLD.AU.md) - [GOAU.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/GOAU.US.md) - [IAU.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/IAU.US.md) - [GLDM.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/GLDM.US.md) - [GDXJ.UK](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/GDXJ.UK.md) - [JNUG.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/JNUG.US.md) - [JDST.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/JDST.US.md) - [NWMX.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/NWMX.US.md) - [BAC.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/BAC.US.md) - [DB.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/DB.US.md) - [DBK.DE](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/DBK.DE.md) - [WPM.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/WPM.US.md) - [FNV.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/FNV.US.md) - [BAC-Q.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/BAC-Q.US.md) - [BML-L.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/BML-L.US.md) - [BAC-L.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/BAC-L.US.md) - [BAC-K.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/BAC-K.US.md) - [BML-H.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/BML-H.US.md) - [BAC-N.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/BAC-N.US.md) - [BAC-E.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/BAC-E.US.md) - [MER-K.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/MER-K.US.md) - [BAC-O.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/BAC-O.US.md) - [BML-G.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/BML-G.US.md) - [BAC-M.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/BAC-M.US.md) - [BAC-B.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/BAC-B.US.md) - [BML-J.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/BML-J.US.md) - [BAC-S.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/BAC-S.US.md) - [BAC-P.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/BAC-P.US.md) - [8648.JP](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/8648.JP.md) - [03KB.DE](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/03KB.DE.md) - [DPB.DE](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/DPB.DE.md) ## Related News & Research - [PRECIOUS-Gold drops after sharp gains as inflation concerns come to the fore](https://longbridge.com/en/news/296506502.md) - [Why is your gold waiting on a speech?](https://longbridge.com/en/news/296733808.md) - [Barrick Mining (TSX:ABX) After Earnings Growth And Newmont Deal Still Looks Slightly Undervalued](https://longbridge.com/en/news/296529222.md) - [Newmont Appoints Peter Beaven to Board of Directors | NEM Stock News](https://longbridge.com/en/news/296535724.md) - [NEM: Q2 2026 delivered record free cash flow, robust shareholder returns, and top-tier ESG performance](https://longbridge.com/en/news/296149198.md) --- > **Disclaimer: This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice.**