HSBC Research: Mainland New Energy 15th Five-Year Plan Stresses Quality over Scale; Cuts GOLDWIND TP to HKD16.5

HSBC Global Investment Research published a report noting that the Chinese government officially released the "15th Five-Year Plan" for the Construction of a New Energy System on June 25. Overall, the targets on carbon peak, energy security and power infrastructure are largely in line with previous policies and market expectations. The plan also introduces additional demand-side measures and more details on the transition to green fuels to support a more comprehensive, coordinated and resilient energy transition. The broker believes the country is recalibrating the quality of energy supply rather than simply pursuing scale, which will generally benefit power operators. Construction targets for energy assets are broadly in line with expectations, with limited upside surprise.

The broker stated that oil and natural gas will play a "stabilizer" role during the energy transition. Although the plan for the first time clearly proposes achieving peak oil consumption before 2030, energy security remains the top priority. The National Development and Reform Commission continues to target stabilizing annual crude oil production at 200 million tonnes while increasing natural gas output. In terms of power infrastructure, the plan reiterates the targets of wind and photovoltaic power accounting for 30% of total generation and 50% of installed capacity by 2030, consistent with the tone set at the National People’s Congress in March. While the plan reaffirms that coal consumption will peak before 2030, it does not restrict new coal-fired power projects, reflecting a pragmatic approach to ensuring supply flexibility.

HSBC Global Investment Research listed relevant Hong Kong stock picks, including CHINA LONGYUAN (00916.HK) -0.090 (-1.701%) Short selling $47.19M; Ratio 34.442% and Zhongguanghe Dianli (001816.HK), both rated Buy. The TP for CHINA LONGYUAN is HKD8.1, with accelerating settlement of renewable energy subsidies and AI-driven power demand seen as positive catalysts. The TP for Zhongguanghe Dianli is HKD4.2, as the company offers stable utilization rates and visible long-term growth, providing defensive value. Other related Hong Kong picks mentioned include HARBIN ELECTRIC (01133.HK) +0.390 (+2.557%) Short selling $8.84M; Ratio 14.286% , CIMC ENRIC (03899.HK) -0.070 (-0.954%) Short selling $2.25M; Ratio 5.153% and ENN ENERGY (02688.HK) +0.920 (+2.245%) Short selling $23.49M; Ratio 13.818% , all rated Buy.

In its DCF valuation model for GOLDWIND (02208.HK) -0.190 (-1.911%) Short selling $15.58M; Ratio 6.699% , the broker raised the assumed equity beta from 1.1 to 1.2, implying weaker overall market sentiment toward the wind power equipment sector. The TP for GOLDWIND was cut by 9% from HKD18.2 to HKD16.5, with the rating maintained at Buy. (ad/u)(HK stocks quote is delayed for at least 15 mins.Short Selling Data as at 2026-06-29 16:25.)