--- title: "Trump Blames Biden for Higher Housing Prices: Did an 'Illegal Immigrant' Wave Drive 30% of the Surge?" type: "News" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/291802026.md" description: "Trump cited a Dallas Fed working paper to claim unauthorized immigration drove 30% of U.S. home price surges under Biden. The study clarifies that while immigration accounted for roughly 30% of the total price increase, the actual average impact was about 6.6%, with total prices rising 22.4%. The paper is preliminary and reflects authors' views, not official Fed stance. Meanwhile, real estate ETFs show positive YTD performance." datetime: "2026-07-06T12:06:28.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/291802026.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/291802026.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/291802026.md) generator: "portal-rs" --- # Trump Blames Biden for Higher Housing Prices: Did an 'Illegal Immigrant' Wave Drive 30% of the Surge? President **Donald Trump** questioned former President **Joe Biden** over soaring housing costs, pointing to a recent Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas working paper to ask whether an “illegal immigrant” wave drove 30% of the recent surge in U.S. home prices. ## **Market ‘Demand Shock’** The debate centers on a newly released working paper estimating the economic impacts of approximately seven million unauthorized immigrants entering the country between 2021 and 2024. According to the researchers, these unauthorized immigrant worker flows acted as a “demand shock” to local housing markets, boosting prices and rents in the face of relatively inelastic short-run housing supply. “From early 2021 to early 2024, the U.S. experienced an unprecedented boom in unauthorized immigration, followed by a rapid slowdown beginning in mid-2024,” the working paper states. While this influx boosted local employment nearly one-for-one without causing significant wage declines, it simultaneously strained existing housing availability. **Read Also: EU Eases Deportation Rules as Labor Shortages Threaten GDP And Unrest Fuels Political Pressure** ## **Deconstructing The 30% Statistic** In a July 6 Truth Social post, Trump said that the Fed paper “suggests Biden illegal immigrant wave drove up home prices 30%.” However, the study clarifies the specific math behind this statistic. The researchers found that the total weighted-mean increase in house prices over this boom period was actually 22.4%. “Putting these together, for the average MSA, UIWF can explain approximately 30% of the total increase in house prices and 20% of the total increase in rents,” the authors wrote. Mathematically, this means unauthorized immigration contributed to an implied effect of roughly 6.6% on average home prices, rather than driving up the total baseline cost of homes by a flat 30%. ## **Preliminary Findings** The Dallas Fed notes that the working paper is a preliminary draft circulated for professional comment. The conclusions represent the views of the authors alone and do not necessarily reflect the official stance of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas or the broader Federal Reserve System. As the political debate over immigration and housing supply heats up, market watchers are closely monitoring the performance of key real estate and homebuilder ETFs tied to these trends. **ETFs** **YTD Performance** **6-Month Performance** **One Year Performance** iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF (BATS:ITB) 5.77% 6.85% 4.93% SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF (NYSE:XHB) 9.32% 7.66% 8.52% Vanguard Real Estate Index Fund ETF (NYSE:VNQ) 9.86% 10.77% 9.01% Real Estate Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:XLRE) 9.72% 10.73% 6.94% **Read Also: Alex Karp's AI Vision Gets Fresh Backing As Analysts Call Palantir the ‘Oxygen’ Behind Enterprise AI** ***Disclaimer:*** *This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.* *Photo courtesy: Shutterstock* ### Related Stocks - [GQRE.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/GQRE.US.md) - [WTRE.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/WTRE.US.md) - [REET.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/REET.US.md) - [DRV.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/DRV.US.md) - [RWO.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/RWO.US.md) - [XLRE.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/XLRE.US.md) - [SRHR.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SRHR.US.md) - [IYR.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/IYR.US.md) - [URE.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/URE.US.md) - [RWR.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/RWR.US.md) - [SCHH.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SCHH.US.md) - [VNQ.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/VNQ.US.md) - [DRN.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/DRN.US.md) - [ITB.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/ITB.US.md) - [XHB.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/XHB.US.md) - [PLTR.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/PLTR.US.md) - [SSTK.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SSTK.US.md) ## Related News & Research - [Redfin: U.S. home prices rise 0.27% in July, growth essentially flat vs June](https://longbridge.com/en/news/296226245.md) - [TABLE-US July pending home sales fall 2.3 pct](https://longbridge.com/en/news/296239808.md) - [Realtor.com finds entry-level homebuyer traffic drops 11.4 points since 2021 as luxury demand holds](https://longbridge.com/en/news/296336039.md) - [The 10 housing markets where the most sellers have listed their homes for less than what they paid](https://longbridge.com/en/news/295710455.md) - [Japan real estate investment set to hit record for second year](https://longbridge.com/en/news/296448947.md) --- > **Disclaimer: This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice.**