JPM Initiates J&T EXPRESS-W at Overweight, Says Stock Overly Pessimistic as Growth and Profit Inflection Point Looms

JPM released a report initiating coverage on J&T EXPRESS-W (01519.HK) +0.010 (+0.106%) Short selling $98.95M; Ratio 28.124% with an Overweight rating and a TP of HKD13. The broker noted that since its initial public offering (IPO) in October 2023, J&T EXPRESS-W's share price performance has lagged, reflecting industry price wars in the China market, initial loss-making conditions, and external shocks such as recent fuel price volatility. The market has also questioned the scalability of J&T's model outside China, as well as the sustainability of margins in the increasingly mature SE Asia market, while believing that newer markets remain at too early a stage to reverse the situation.

However, J&T EXPRESS-W's business has already turned profitable and is achieving industry-leading profit and volume growth, while unlocking new synergies through cooperation with SF HOLDING (06936.HK) 0.000 (0.000%) Short selling $9.96M; Ratio 22.697% . Despite a clear earnings inflection point and a proven, replicable overseas business model, the stock's valuation has retreated to about 10x forecast Non-IFRS P/E ratio. JPM believes J&T's scalable platform, accelerating growth in new markets and cost leadership are not reflected in the current valuation. Given its expected adjusted net profit CAGR of about 50% for FY2025-2028, compared with the industry average of 15% to 20%, the broker believes a premium of about 20% over the industry average is justified. (su/da)(HK stocks quote is delayed for at least 15 mins.Short Selling Data as at 2026-07-07 16:25.)