--- title: "当费城半导体年内暴涨 83%，而七巨头原地踏步，华尔街顶级策略师集体喊” 换牌”" type: "News" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/292256036.md" description: "上半年” 科技七巨头” 几乎原地踏步，而标普 500 指数同期上涨 9.3%。资金大量流向芯片股，费城半导体指数迄今累涨 83%。七巨头估值虽已从 32.6 倍降至 23.9 倍，估值溢价接近历史低点，但市场对其 AI 投资回报前景仍持观望态度。摩根士丹利、高盛等机构则认为七巨头跌幅已过度，呼吁重新布局。" datetime: "2026-07-10T01:07:35.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/292256036.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/292256036.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/292256036.md) --- # 当费城半导体年内暴涨 83%，而七巨头原地踏步，华尔街顶级策略师集体喊” 换牌” 美国科技巨头组合"科技七巨头"今年以来几乎原地踏步，正在成为华尔街完成年终目标的最大阻碍。 **今年上半年，万得科技七巨头指数宽幅震荡，最终持平于年初价格，而同期标普 500 指数上涨 9.3%，两者差距近 10 个百分点，为该组合有史以来相对大盘表现第二差的年度开局。** **** 在人工智能热潮持续推动半导体及其他科技股大幅上涨之际，这一**占标普 500 指数权重约三分之一的巨头组合却明显掉队，这一局面令华尔街策略师的年终预测承压。** 主要机构策略师对标普 500 指数的年终目标均值为 7824.09 点，较周三收盘价隐含约 5% 的上涨空间。**据彭博测算，若科技七巨头继续低迷，其余 493 只成分股须在年内已累计上涨约 13% 的基础上，再额外上涨 6.8%，该目标方能实现。** ## 半导体抢走风头，七巨头沦为"局外人" 过去近十年主导市场的科技七巨头今年风光不再，资金转而涌向人工智能基础设施的直接受益者——芯片股，费城半导体指数今年迄今累计上涨 83%。 科技七巨头整体表现落后于标普 500 中逾 300 只成分股，其中不乏 Dollar Tree 和 Hubbell 等市值相对较小的公司。 Mahoney 资管首席执行官 Ken Mahoney 指出，Meta、亚马逊和微软等科技七巨头一直是人工智能基础设施建设的主要资金来源，他说： > 市场对于它们将大量自由现金流砸向 AI、却不知何时能看到投资回报这件事，并不买账。 随着年终目标兑现的压力加大，摩根士丹利、高盛和摩根大通在过去两周内相继表态，**认为科技七巨头相对于芯片股及大盘的落后已过度。** 摩根士丹利财富管理首席投资官 Lisa Shalett 在本周二的研究报告中写道，**半导体板块已"严重超买"，现在是重新审视科技七巨头潜在机会的时机。**她表示： 半导体制造商和内存供应商的订单积压加速与定价权扩张令人瞩目，但我们认为这一态势难以为继。 Lisa Shalett 表示并非预判本轮周期终结，而是呼吁重建对潜在 AI 建设受益者的多元化配置，**"重新拥抱部分超大规模云服务商"**。 Hamilton Capital Partners 首席投资官 Alonso Munoz 则指出： > **从当前位置来看，若没有科技七巨头的参与，标普 500 要继续向前推进将会比较困难**，因为许多已大幅上涨的板块，比如能源，本身也面临一定的回调压力。这些名字对于指数涨跌有着举足轻重的影响。 ## 估值回落至历史低溢价，重配吸引力显现 科技七巨头今年以来的持续调整已令其估值明显改善。据彭博数据，该组合市盈率已从去年 10 月底的 32.6 倍降至 23.9 倍。上个月，科技七巨头相对标普 500 的估值溢价收窄至仅 2.4 倍，接近历史最低水平。 高盛合伙人 Rich Privorotsky 对人工智能前景极为乐观，但对市场当前押注价值链的方向"远未信服"。 **他认为，一旦稀缺性消失，持有 AI 平台将比持有硬件更具优势。**用他的话说，超大规模云服务商"拥有的是收费公路本身，而不仅仅是路上跑的车"。 **也有市场人士认为，标普 500 未必需要科技七巨头的回归就能实现年终目标。** 富国银行投资研究院全球股票及实物资产主管 Sameer Samana 指出，**剔除七大巨头后，标普 500 其余成分股年内已累计上涨约 14%，大盘或可依靠其余个股实现目标。** SimCorp 投资决策研究主管 Melissa Brown 也表示，标普 500"有可能靠其余成分股实现"7824.09 点的年终目标，Melissa Brown 补充： > 但考虑到这些股票权重较低，它们需要录得更大的涨幅，才能将整体指数拉升至那个水平。 ### Related Stocks - 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