--- title: "The decline in speculation has triggered a valuation correction, and Wall Street institutions predict that SpaceX's future core revenue structure will shift towards AI and Starlink" type: "News" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/292449413.md" description: "After SpaceX was included in the Nasdaq 100 Index, its stock price fell, and the valuation logic shifted to rationality. Wall Street institutions predict that its core revenue will tilt towards AI and Starlink. Revenue is expected to increase by 33% to $18.7 billion in 2025, but due to losses from xAI, it will incur a net loss of $4.9 billion. Despite short-term pressure, institutions expect the stock price to rebound to around $220 by the end of 2026, optimistic about its long-term growth potential" datetime: "2026-07-13T07:08:42.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/292449413.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/292449413.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/292449413.md) --- # The decline in speculation has triggered a valuation correction, and Wall Street institutions predict that SpaceX's future core revenue structure will shift towards AI and Starlink Log in to the Sina Finance APP and search for \[Information Disclosure\] to see more evaluation levels. After being officially included in the Nasdaq 100 Index, the stock price trend and forward valuation of Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SpaceX) have triggered ongoing assessments from Wall Street research institutions. In response to the recent decline in stock prices, financial analysis firms believe that as the irrational speculation in the early stages of listing gradually cools down, SpaceX's valuation logic is shifting from pure conceptual speculation to an examination of actual business execution capabilities. In the future, artificial intelligence (AI) computing power leasing and the Starlink satellite communication network will become the core driving forces determining its market value space. Market trading data shows that as of the close on July 10, SpaceX's stock price fluctuated around $149 per share. Although this price is still above the IPO issuance price of $135, it has significantly retraced nearly 34% from its post-listing peak of $225.60. Investment analysis firms point out that the current stock price correction has not weakened mainstream capital's long-term interest but has made the market's valuation of SpaceX more rational. Currently, Wall Street research institutions' baseline forecasts for the company suggest that by the end of 2026, its stock price is expected to rebound to around $220 per share. This calculation logic is based on the assumption that while valuation multiples are contracting in stages, the high growth of future revenues is sufficient to offset valuation pressures. Compliance financial information disclosure shows that SpaceX's financial performance in 2025 exhibits strong revenue expansion momentum, with annual operating revenue expected to grow by 33% year-on-year to $18.7 billion. However, influenced by the high losses from the AI startup xAI, the company recorded a net loss of $4.9 billion during the same period. Industry analysts emphasize that although facing short-term losses, SpaceX's underlying assets and core business still possess strong monetization potential. Currently, the Starlink network has approximately 9,600 satellites in orbit, with a user base exceeding 10.3 million, continuing to serve as its revenue foundation. Meanwhile, AI infrastructure is becoming the company's most explosive second growth curve. Regulatory documents show that Alphabet, Google's parent company, has reached an agreement with SpaceX to pay $92 million per month from October 2026 to June 2029 for support of approximately 110,000 NVIDIA GPUs (graphics processing units) and related computing resources. Additionally, the AI unicorn company Anthropic has also signed a significant computing power access agreement, securing the usage rights of SpaceX's Colossus 1 data center. It is estimated that if these two AI computing power orders are fully realized, they will bring approximately $26 billion in substantial revenue to SpaceX each year. Regarding the future evolution of market value, Wall Street analysts generally expect that SpaceX's current price-to-sales ratio (P/S) is relatively high, with a trading market value close to $2 trillion, reaching 51.4 times the baseline revenue expectation for 2026 ($38.9 billion) As the IPO frenzy subsides, it is expected that by the end of 2026, its forward price-to-sales ratio will face a structural compression of 20% to 25%, falling back to a rational range of 38.5 times to 41 times. The investment banking strategy team pointed out that given the AI computing power dividend and the expansion of "Starlink" will be concentrated in 2027, the market will price based on the revenue expectations for 2027. Currently, Wall Street's average revenue forecast for SpaceX in 2027 is $72.4 billion. Based on the adjusted price-to-sales ratio range, the corresponding implied total market value will be between $2.79 trillion and $2.97 trillion. With the company's current circulating share capital of approximately 13.1 billion shares, this means that by the end of 2026, SpaceX's reasonable stock price range should be between $213 and $227, with a baseline forecast of $220 aligning with the current macro fundamentals ### Related Stocks - [SPCX.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SPCX.US.md) - [SPCH.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SPCH.US.md) - [SPCF.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SPCF.US.md) - [SPAL.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SPAL.US.md) - [SNK.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SNK.US.md) - [SSPC.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SSPC.US.md) - [SPCU.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SPCU.US.md) - [LOFF.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/LOFF.US.md) - [.NDX.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/.NDX.US.md) - [GOOGL.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/GOOGL.US.md) - [GOOG.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/GOOG.US.md) - [NVDA.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/NVDA.US.md) - [NVD.DE](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/NVD.DE.md) ## Related News & Research - [Elon Musk's SpaceX Poured $7.7 Billion Into AI Last Quarter. 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