【IPO Tracking】METIS TECHBIO-P plummets over 12%, hitting a new low since its listing. Is the valuation bubble being cleared?

On July 13, AI drug delivery first stock METIS TECHBIO (07666.HK) plummeted significantly, with a decline of 12.34%. The stock price hit a new low since its listing, reported at HKD 10.94, just a step away from the issuance price of HKD 10.5, nearing a break below the issue price, as the valuation bubble from the previous hype continues to be digested.

Looking back at the listing phase, the company saw unprecedented heat when it was listed in May, with the public offering oversubscribed nearly 7,000 times. The company's issuance price was HKD 10.5, and on the first day of trading, it surged over 126%. Now, the stock price continues to weaken, with funds collectively cashing out, and multiple fundamental risks may become the core reasons for this round of decline.

Some analysts believe that METIS TECHBIO has a single revenue structure, with over 98% of revenue in 2025 coming from a single product's upfront payment, which is a one-time revenue. This "upfront payment dependency" is common in AI biotechnology but exposes sustainable risks. If milestones are not met or the BD market cools down, performance may plummet.

In addition, the company continues to incur significant losses, with losses of RMB 582 million, RMB 499 million, and RMB 392 million from 2023 to 2025. The company's R&D investment is high, and it currently lacks stable cash-generating capabilities.

In terms of valuation, based on the current market value and projected revenue for 2025, the company's price-to-sales ratio exceeds 100 times, far higher than traditional pharmaceutical companies. The market is betting on future platform ecology and multiple pipeline releases rather than current profitability. The company's commercialization cycle is long, and coupled with the recent cooling of the Hong Kong stock AI innovative drug sector, the speculative chips of newly listed stocks have loosened, further amplifying the company's decline.

Market participants have warned that METIS TECHBIO is nearing a break below the issue price, and the speculative trading frenzy is essentially over. Investors should closely track some key signals going forward: the status of new commercial collaborations and the progress of clinical pipelines. Without substantial positive developments, the stock price may continue to fluctuate around the issuance price, and ordinary investors should avoid the risks of high-volatility speculative trading