--- title: "JPM Downgrades GAC GROUP to Underweight; Top Picks for 2H26 Are GEELY AUTO, NIO-SW , BYD COMPANY" type: "News" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/292565253.md" description: "JPMorgan downgraded GAC Group and SAIC Motor to Underweight, citing weak mainland China auto demand in H2 2026 due to low consumer confidence. Conversely, it maintained Overweight ratings on top picks Geely Auto, NIO, and BYD, expecting them to outperform via strong NEV portfolios and overseas growth. JPM lowered target prices for several automakers to reflect domestic headwinds and cost pressures, recommending focus on companies with earnings upgrade potential and high overseas revenue exposure." datetime: "2026-07-14T04:20:48.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/292565253.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/292565253.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/292565253.md) generator: "portal-rs" --- # JPM Downgrades GAC GROUP to Underweight; Top Picks for 2H26 Are GEELY AUTO, NIO-SW , BYD COMPANY JPM released a research report expecting no meaningful recovery in mainland China's auto market demand in 2H26, mainly due to weak consumer confidence. As such, the broker believes that even if further policy stimulus measures are introduced in 2H26, their effectiveness may still be limited. After domestic passenger vehicle demand fell 23% YoY in 1H26, the broker expects demand in 2H26 to remain below or near seasonal levels, although the YoY decline is expected to narrow to around 10%. The focus of the mainland market is the relative growth after new energy vehicle penetration reached a record high of 63% in June. Automakers with competitive new energy vehicle models, such as BYD COMPANY (01211.HK) +1.150 (+1.370%) Short selling $533.51M; Ratio 40.858% , XPENG-W (09868.HK) +0.450 (+0.886%) Short selling $227.98M; Ratio 35.082% and LEAPMOTOR (09863.HK) -0.540 (-1.484%) Short selling $30.27M; Ratio 11.077% , are expected to be more resilient against domestic headwinds than peers. These companies may see positive share price reactions if they launch new models in 2H26 or sustain follow-on sales momentum. In overseas markets, the situation is completely opposite and highly positive. The broker believes that overseas sales targets set by all major Chinese automakers are too conservative, with actual performance potentially exceeding expectations by around 20% to 50%. Overseas markets are expected to account for 30% to 50% of revenue for major automakers in 2026. Following recent earnings forecast revisions, the broker downgraded both SAIC MOTOR (600104.SH) +0.060 (+0.604%) and GAC GROUP (02238.HK) +0.050 (+2.451%) Short selling $18.76M; Ratio 23.785% from Neutral to Underweight, believing their weak performance will continue. Meanwhile, the broker raised forecasts for NIO-SW (09866.HK) +2.100 (+5.615%) Short selling $34.64M; Ratio 29.636% and maintained its Overweight rating, expecting NIO-SW's 2Q26 results to beat expectations, while GEELY AUTO (00175.HK) -0.040 (-0.220%) Short selling $103.18M; Ratio 18.794% is also likely to deliver better-than-expected performance. In addition, the broker lowered target prices for certain automakers to reflect weaker mainland market conditions and cost pressures, adopting more conservative price-to-earnings multiples. Overall, the broker recommends focusing on automakers with room for earnings upgrades, strong new energy vehicle product portfolios and higher overseas revenue exposure. Its top picks for 2H26 are GEELY AUTO (00175.HK) -0.040 (-0.220%) Short selling $103.18M; Ratio 18.794% , NIO-SW (09866.HK) +2.100 (+5.615%) Short selling $34.64M; Ratio 29.636% and BYD COMPANY (01211.HK) +1.150 (+1.370%) Short selling $533.51M; Ratio 40.858% . JPM adjusted target prices and ratings for multiple auto stocks: BYD COMPANY (01211.HK) +1.150 (+1.370%) Short selling $533.51M; Ratio 40.858% maintained at Overweight with TP unchanged at HKD124 GEELY AUTO (00175.HK) -0.040 (-0.220%) Short selling $103.18M; Ratio 18.794% maintained at Overweight with TP unchanged at HKD29 XPENG-W (09868.HK) +0.450 (+0.886%) Short selling $227.98M; Ratio 35.082% maintained at Overweight with TP lowered from HKD118 to HKD108 NIO Inc. (NIO.US) maintained at Overweight with TP unchanged at USD7 LI AUTO-W (02015.HK) +0.680 (+1.441%) Short selling $119.68M; Ratio 29.124% maintained at Underweight with TP lowered from HKD56 to HKD38 LEAPMOTOR (09863.HK) -0.540 (-1.484%) Short selling $30.27M; Ratio 11.077% maintained at Overweight with TP lowered from HKD90 to HKD60 GWMOTOR (02333.HK) +0.050 (+0.587%) Short selling $20.89M; Ratio 24.919% maintained at Neutral with TP lowered from HKD11.5 to HKD8.5 GAC GROUP (02238.HK) +0.050 (+2.451%) Short selling $18.76M; Ratio 23.785% downgraded from Neutral to Underweight with TP lowered from HKD3.3 to HKD1.1 BAIC MOTOR (01958.HK) -0.020 (-2.564%) Short selling $1.27M; Ratio 40.230% maintained at Neutral with TP lowered from HKD1.6 to HKD0.8 CHANGAN AUTOMOBILE (000625.SZ) +0.030 (+0.435%) maintained at Underweight with TP lowered from RMB6.6 to RMB4.5 (ad/u)(HK stocks quote is delayed for at least 15 mins.Short Selling Data as at 2026-07-13 16:25.) (A Shares quote is delayed for at least 15 mins.) 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