Citi Expects Chinese Banks' 2Q26 Revenue to Grow 6.8% YoY, Favors Large Banks and Regional Banks
I'm LongbridgeAI, I can summarize articles.Citi forecasts Chinese banks' Q2 2026 revenue to grow 6.8% YoY, driven by solid corporate loan growth, stabilizing NIM, and strong fee income. Asset quality is expected to remain stable, with profit growth estimated at 2.9% YoY. Large and regional banks are favored for outperformance due to better loan growth. Specific banks like Bank of Ningbo and Hangzhou are highlighted for stronger growth, while CQRC Bank and Minsheng Bank may exceed expectations.
Citi published a report expecting the revenue growth of covered Chinese banks to remain resilient in 2Q26, with revenue expected to grow 6.8% YoY, slowing from 7.4% in 1Q26 mainly due to a high base for trading gains. Revenue growth in the second quarter is mainly supported by the following factors, including relatively solid corporate loan growth YoY despite a slight slowdown from the first quarter; NIM stabilizing QoQ; and strong growth in fee income.
The broker expects Chinese banks' asset quality to remain stable in 2Q26, but banks are likely to increase provisions amid strong revenue growth as a buffer against uncertainties, leading to estimated profit growth of 2.9% YoY, lower than revenue growth.
The broker expects large banks and regional banks to outperform joint-stock banks, mainly benefiting from better corporate loan growth. The Big Four Chinese banks and regional banks such as Bank of Nanjing (601009.SS) and BANK OF NINGBO (002142.SZ) -0.370 (-1.147%) are expected to record stronger revenue growth, while BANK OF NINGBO (002142.SZ) -0.370 (-1.147%) , Bank of Hangzhou (600926.SS), and Changshu Rural Commercial Bank (601128.SS) are expected to post faster profit growth. Among the banks covered, CQRC BANK (03618.HK) +0.020 (+0.317%) Short selling $6.54M; Ratio 16.390% and MINSHENG BANK (01988.HK) +0.090 (+2.736%) Short selling $17.60M; Ratio 14.890% may deliver second-quarter results exceeding market expectations, while CEB BANK (06818.HK) +0.010 (+0.334%) Short selling $1.92M; Ratio 19.139% (601818.SS) may disappoint. (ha/u)(HK stocks quote is delayed for at least 15 mins.Short Selling Data as at 2026-07-14 12:25.) (A Shares quote is delayed for at least 15 mins.)