--- title: "JPM: Profit Alerts Boost Earnings Expectations for Chinese Insurers but Dividends Are Key; Prefers PING AN" type: "News" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/292590525.md" description: "JPMorgan highlights that while profit alerts boost Chinese insurer earnings expectations, dividends are the key catalyst. Strong investment income from rising equity markets supports H1 profits, particularly for China Life and CPIC due to FVTPL exposure. However, JPM argues investors should focus on interim dividend growth rather than headline net profit beats under IFRS-17/9. JPM maintains Overweight ratings on Ping An, China Life, and CPIC, favoring life insurers over property insurers like PICC." datetime: "2026-07-14T08:30:48.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/292590525.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/292590525.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/292590525.md) generator: "portal-rs" --- # JPM: Profit Alerts Boost Earnings Expectations for Chinese Insurers but Dividends Are Key; Prefers PING AN JPM released a research report stating that NCI (01336.HK) +3.000 (+6.909%) Short selling $178.83M; Ratio 33.740% previously issued a profit alert, expecting net profit for 1H25 to record YoY growth of 40% to 60%, reaching RMB20.7 billion to RMB23.7 billion. Compared with the market's full-year forecast of RMB30.7 billion, this is expected to support market sentiment and earnings forecast revisions for Chinese insurers. In addition, the CSI 300 Index rose cumulatively 7.6% in 1H25, while the yield on 10-year Chinese government bonds eased from 1.81% at the end of March to 1.73% at the end of June. Against the improving market backdrop, strong investment income is expected to drive earnings upside for the entire Chinese insurance sector in the first half. In particular, CHINA LIFE (02628.HK) +1.100 (+3.997%) Short selling $380.24M; Ratio 42.789% and CPIC (02601.HK) +0.460 (+1.679%) Short selling $9.85M; Ratio 16.419% , due to their larger exposure to equity assets classified as FVTPL (fair value through profit or loss), may see especially significant earnings upside. However, the broker believes that under IFRS-17/9 accounting standards, the market has become increasingly selective in reacting to profit alerts because most profit volatility is essentially driven by unrealized valuation gains on balance sheets, and such unrealized gains are usually not directly used for dividend distribution. Therefore, investors are expected to pay less attention to headline net profit beats in the future and instead focus more on whether strong earnings can translate into higher interim DPS, improved quality of contractual service margin, and sustainability of life insurance sales momentum. The broker expects growth in interim dividends to be the key earnings-related catalyst, especially for insurers with strong capital positions and progressive dividend policies. JPM's top pick in the sector is PING AN (02318.HK) +0.450 (+0.845%) Short selling $249.46M; Ratio 42.820% . The broker noted that Hong Kong-listed Chinese insurers have underperformed so far this year, while the market consensus forecast dividend yield for PING AN H shares has risen to 6.4% (versus the broker's forecast of 6.3%). Given its stable DPS growth outlook, solid life insurance business foundation, expected YoY growth of 36% in new business value this year and YoY growth of 11% in operating profit, the current period represents a good opportunity to accumulate PING AN H shares. The broker maintained its Overweight rating and HKD90 TP on the stock. The broker also maintained an Overweight rating on CHINA LIFE H shares with a HKD40 TP, believing the stock may benefit from potential profit alert momentum. CPIC H shares were likewise maintained at Overweight with a HKD43 TP, supported by an attractive dividend yield of 5.5%. Overall, the broker continues to prefer life insurers over property insurers, and listed PICC P&C (02328.HK) +0.300 (+2.149%) Short selling $28.26M; Ratio 18.403% and PICC GROUP (01339.HK) +0.120 (+2.444%) Short selling $6.67M; Ratio 8.977% H shares as its least preferred stocks in the sector. Both were rated Neutral, with TPs of HKD14 and HKD5.8 respectively. 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