SPCX vs. ASTS vs. RKLB: Only One Gets Buy Rating from Piper Sandler
I'm LongbridgeAI, I can summarize articles.Piper Sandler initiated coverage of AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) with a Buy rating and $100 price target, citing its superior risk-reward profile compared to Rocket Lab (RKLB) and SpaceX (SPCX), which received Hold ratings. Analyst Alexander Potter highlighted AST's partnership model with major carriers as a key advantage for subscriber growth. Piper projects significant revenue expansion for AST by 2031 but noted competition risks. While confident in SpaceX long-term, Piper cited valuation concerns. Wall Street consensus suggests SPCX has the highest upside potential.
Investment firm Piper Sandler says that AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) currently offers the best risk-reward setup out of three closely watched space stocks. More specifically, five-star analyst Alexander Potter started coverage of AST SpaceMobile with a Buy rating and a $100 price target. By comparison, Piper gave both Rocket Lab (RKLB) and SpaceX (SPCX) Hold ratings.
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High conviction ASTS bulls now have this Tradr ETFWhile Potter is optimistic about the long-term future of reusable rockets, he believes that AST has a clearer path to earnings growth and trades at a more attractive valuation today.
AST SpaceMobile: Helping Existing Carriers, Not Replacing Them
Interestingly, AST SpaceMobile is building satellites that connect directly to normal smartphones and is working with major wireless providers such as AT&T (T) and Verizon (VZ). Piper believes that this partnership model is important because AST is helping existing carriers instead of trying to replace them, and it gives the company access to more than 3 billion wireless subscribers around the world.
Looking ahead, Piper estimates that AST could reach roughly 45 million subscribers by 2031. In addition, revenue could rise from about $166 million in 2026 to more than $5 billion by 2031, while EBITDA may reach around $4.2 billion. However, the main risk is competition from SpaceX's Starlink direct-to-cell service. AST also needs large amounts of capital, and delays in satellite launches or approvals could hurt the growth story.
SpaceX Needs More Time
Despite the preference for AST, Piper is still confident in SpaceX over the long term. Nevertheless, the firm believes that the stock may need time before it starts moving much higher. In addition, Piper's $156 price target is factoring in SpaceX's lockup expirations and heavy spending needs. Analysts also want more proof that newer ideas, like orbital AI infrastructure, can create meaningful value.
Meanwhile, Piper gave Rocket Lab an $83 price target and called it the strongest public alternative to SpaceX, thanks to its Electron rocket and vertically integrated model. Still, much of the optimism may already be priced in. As a result, Rocket Lab's future depends heavily on the success of its larger Neutron rocket, which could open the door to bigger missions and better margins.
Wall Street's Take
Turning to Wall Street, out of the three stocks mentioned above, analysts think that SPCX stock has the most room to run. In fact, SPCX's average price target of $243.81 per share implies almost 83.2% upside potential. (See SPCX Stock Forecast).